North Korea’s nuclear threat

With Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump facing off, fears are growing of a potentially catastrophic conflict

IT SOUNDS like a recipe for disaster. On the one side of the planet you have Kim Jong-un, the volatile ruler of North Korea, who likes to show his military clout by firing off long-range missiles and nuclear bombs, and on the other you have President Donald Trump of the United States, the socalled “leader of the free world”, who believes the best way to stop Kim is to threaten him.

No wonder people are feeling nervous. Trump (71) has been unleashing promises of “fire and fury like the world has never seen”, warning that the US is “locked and loaded” and ready to strike, but instead of intimidating Kim (33) he just seems to be egging him on.

Despite a United Nations ban prohibiting his country from conducting missile tests, the tin-pot dictator has been firing them off left, right and centre. There have been 21 tests since February but the one that really set off alarm bells – quite literally – was a missile fired over Japan.

Without any warning from North Korea the missile was launched, sending areas in northern Japan into a spin as emergency sirens blared in the streets.

Although the missile landed harmlessly in the sea off the northern island of Hokkaido – after a flight of roughly 2 700km – it sent shockwaves across Japan because it marked the first time a North Korean ballistic missile had flown over the country.

Videos showed Kim joking with his generals as he oversaw the launch. Then a few days later, North Korea created more shockwaves by testing a hydrogen bomb. The nuclear test – North Korea’s sixth – was the most powerful ever conducted in the country and triggered a magnitude-6,3 tremor at the test site.

And it seems Kim isn’t finished. He repeated his threat to strike Guam, a small island in the Western Pacific, which is a US territory and home to American military bases.

Where in previous weeks Trump had told reporters he thought the communist dictator was starting to “respect us” he’s now changed his tune.

“The world has received North Korea’s latest message loud and clear. This regime has signalled its contempt for its neighbours,” he said, adding cryptically, “All options are on the table.”

Now, with experts warning the risk of a nuclear strike is at its highest since the dark days of the Cold War, the question that many are too afraid to ask is: what exactly are those options – and could they spark World War 3?

WHY IS KIM SO TRIGGER-HAPPY?

The reason the tyrant has armed himself to the teeth is to prevent any international effort to overthrow his regime.

He’s seen how the US dealt with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and how Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi came to a sticky end after giving up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. Kim believes nuclear weapons and long-range missiles are the best way to avoid suffering the same fate.

And he’s worked out that firing off the occasional missile is the best way to get under Trump’s skin and make the world take notice of his isolated nation, which is one of the poorest in the world.

IS TRUMP SHOOTING HIMSELF IN THE FOOT?

So far this year North Korea has issued statements threatening to submerge neighbouring South Korea in “a sea of fire”, reduce Japan “to ashes” and take action that will ensure the USA’s collapse.

But experts say the USA has been hearing these threats for decades. What’s new is that America now has a president who’s as volatile and reactionary as Kim and seems intent on a war of words.

Ashley Townshend, acting director for foreign policy, defence and strategy at

the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney in Australia warns that although Trump’s “fire and fury” remarks are just empty threats they might intensify the North Koreans’ paranoia, “raising the odds of an unintended escalation or misunderstanding”.

ARE WE HEADING FOR WORLD WAR 3?

Although South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe both believe pressure on North Korea should be raised to its limit, there aren’t many options available. A fresh round of sanctions has done little to rein in the rogue nation.

“Most experts agree there’s no reasonable military option,” Townshend says.

Because North Korea is so isolated, reliable intelligence about its military stockpiles is scarce. But what’s known for sure is that it has nuclear options.

“If you attack them after they have the nuclear weapons, it’s not a preventive war. It’s just a plain old nuclear war,” says Jeffrey Lewis, a non-proliferation expert at Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California.

Even if nuclear weapons don’t come into play, North Korea’s huge artillery stocks could devastate the South Korean capital of Seoul and its surrounding areas, experts warn. Right now the stakes are just too high. Japan and South Korea are both siding with the USA while China – North Korea’s biggest ally and trading partner – and Russia are on the fence.

China has signalled it will remain neutral if North Korea attacks first but has remained mum on what will happen if the US fires the first shots.

Although Kim knows there’s no way he could ever beat the USA in a war, analysts say he might be trying to provoke Trump into striking first so he can earn himself the sympathy of the Chinese and the Russians. This would mean we’d have World War 3 on our hands.

But most agree this doomsday scenario is extremely unlikely. As difficult as Kim is, he isn’t suicidal.

“It’s a classic stalemate, where avoiding war is probably in the best interest of both sides,” CNN military analyst Rick Francona says.