What lies ahead for Zimbabwe
The votes have been cast and the ballots counted – yet is Zimbabwe truly on the brink of a new dawn? Political experts say there’s a new man in charge but not much has changed
IT’S a new beginning, he’s promised. Zimbabwe has chosen him to lead them for the next five years, and he’s going to do everything in his power to bring about peace, unity and love. Zanu-PF’s Emmerson Mnangagwa is officially the new president of Zimbabwe, just months after he was part of a coup that toppled former president Robert Mugabe. Mnangagwa barely made it into the hot seat with 50,8%, while his main opponent, Nelson Chamisa, doubled the MDC’s votes with 44,3%.
The votes have been cast, promises have been made and Zimbabwe has entered into a new democracy. Is it the end of the troubles the country has faced under Mugabe’s regime?
YOU spoke to experts to find out. NEW DAWN The election has been described as a new dawn for Zimbabwe, and Mnangagwa said he was humbled to become president of the Second Republic of Zimbabwe. The new leader has been handed a chance to prove himself by voters and show he’s his “own man”, says Ray Ndlovu, analyst and author of In the Jaws of the Crocodile: Emmerson Mnangagwa’s Rise to Power in Zimbabwe.
“He has an opportunity to step away from the shadow of his predecessor, Robert Mugabe, that’s been cast over him in the past eight months.”
But Zimbabweans will expect him to deliver, says Geoffrey Nyarota, activist and author of The Graceless Fall of Robert Mugabe.
“They need jobs, medicine in the clinics and pharmacies, as well as good roads and decent transportation. Because of the closeness of this election result he’s keenly aware he’s under close scrutiny in terms of delivery.”
It’s too early to tell if he’ll bring about any real change, analysts say.
“The shooting of innocent protesters by the military certainly wasn’t a good start,” Nyarota says. “That’s not the kind of Zimbabwe we’ve all been waiting for. The majority of Zimbabweans expect to start to see an improvement in their lives in the not-too-distant future.” DEMOCRACY IN THE MAKING It takes more than one election to bring about democracy, says Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast, Stellenbosch University’s head of department of military political science.
The country was run through the military under Mugabe and Zanu-PF, with no clear separation of powers. “There needs to be a roll-out of new reforms or it will be much of the same that we saw under Mugabe.
“Democracy isn’t one single event,” Breakfast adds. “Just because he removed Mugabe doesn’t mean he introduced democracy.”
The election was the first building block. “Zimbabwe needs to then add the other building blocks to change its image to a democratic country. For example, the public broadcaster has been accused of being a tool for Zanu-PF. And the judicial systems are not independent.” BUILDING CREDIBILITY It’s going to take a lot of work to get Zimbabwe back on track. And it won’t be able to do it on its own, Breakfast says.
“Because of the amount of mistrust between Zimbabwe’s main parties, it’s going to take outside help to rebuild. They need someone with credibility, such as United Nations diplomat, Kofi Annan, to facilitate a connection between the
two parties as the vote showed a country divided.”
Nyarota, who’s based in Zimbabwe, agrees. The starting point for Zimbabwe to be accepted by the international community would be to prove the election was free, fair and credible.
“There are many among [Mnangagwa’s] countrymen who warn against placing all of Zimbabwe’s eggs in one foreign investment basket. They suggest a vigorous approach should be aimed at Zimbabwean and African potential investors, given the abundance of infrastructural, human and natural resources.” A VIOLENT START Six people were killed in violent protests in the days between the election and the announcement of the new president.
Chamisa declared himself the winner before saying the country would be ungovernable should they not win.
Using the police instead of the army to control the violent scenes would have been a good start, Breakfast believes. “The army is trained to shoot to kill.”
And if the two parties don’t come to a political solution, there isn’t going to be an end to the violence. “There’s going to be perpetual conflict in some areas,” he says, considering the amount of support each party has.
Ndlovu believes the main political players needed to condemn violence by their supporters. “The state needs to withdraw the presence of the army on the streets and provide full disclosure on the killings that took place in order to provide needed assurances to citizens and the rest of the global citizenry.” FOREIGN INVESTMENT The post-election violence might deter foreign investments. “There was evidence of tentative embracing of Zim by foreign leaders and investors,” Nyarota says. “But the actions of the MDC Alliance are likely to influence the final decisions of the international community and they’ll adopt a further wait-andsee assessment.”
Would anyone rush to invest money in a country where the main political parties are still at loggerheads over the results?
“There’s a long-standing symbiotic relationship between politics and the economy,” Breakfast points out. “Who wants to invest in a country with political upheaval?” It’s only once Zimbabwe has built up a good reputation post-election that foreign investment might flow, analysts believe.
Once the poll is declared free and fair, investors will make their next move, believes Ndlovu, also based in Zimbabwe. “Those investors which had already approached the government over the past eight months with an interest to invest are likely to follow up on their conversations given that there’s been no radical change in the leader.
“Confidence boosters will be things such as his cabinet, a crackdown on graft and how far [Mnangagwa] is able to provide some sort of economic relief to ordinary citizens.” SOUTH AFRICA’S BUY-IN President Cyril Ramaphosa congratulated Mnangagwa, before calling on Zimbabweans to accept the outcome of the elections. The African National Congress echoed the sentiments, and sent a team to Zimbabwe after receiving an invitation from Zanu-PF.
“We urge the newly elected leadership to pay focused attention to the socio-economic challenges that confront the people of Zimbabwe,” ANC national spokesman Pule Mabe said. “Now is the time to unite the nation and devote its collective energy towards reconstruction and development. The ANC stands ready to walk this path with the people of Zimbabwe and to lend a hand.”
Breakfast believes the ruling party and, by default Ramaphosa, prefer Zanu-PF over the opposition MDC. “The ANC and Zanu-PF speak the same language. They perceive each other as liberation movements,” he says.
Politically, Zanu-PF will receive full support from the South African government, he adds. “There might be bias if SA has to intervene politically, as our posture towards Zimbabwe is going to be in support of Zanu-PF.”
Investment, however, might wait until stability has been restored. WILL PEOPLE RETURN? The successful elections don’t mean Zimbabweans in South Africa will start heading back home. “There are many who didn’t even go home to vote,” Breakfast says.
“Relocation to the motherland is far from the stroll in the park that many observers expect it to be,” Nyarota says. “Not every Zimbabwean is financially or emotionally prepared to return. Many of them are young families with children in schools. There’s no guarantee of instant jobs in Harare, Bulawayo or elsewhere. Many are employed in menial jobs which they would never dream of accepting back at home.”
‘Who wants to invest in a country with political upheaval?’