Cyril’s report card after six months

Six months into Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, experts weigh in on the good, the bad, and what’s to come

ALITTLE more than six months ago he was ushered in on a wave of hope that was quickly termed “Ramaphoria” – and the new president of South Africa seemed to waste no time cracking the whip and getting down to business. President Cyril Ramaphosa rearranged the pieces on the chessboard of his cabinet, went overseas in a bid to woo back investors and vowed to clear out the corruption dragging South Africa to the brink of ruin.

And it seemed to be working: an Ipsos Pulse of the People survey conducted from April to June showed most citizens were still basking in the Ramaphoria glow. He scored an average of 7,3 out of 10 in the popularity stakes, which was “exceptional against the background of the general uncertainty in the country and the uncertainty expressed about the ANC’s future”, Ipsos said in a statement.

But it hasn’t all been warm and fuzzy. An increase in VAT, the ever-rising fuel price, the spectre of land grabs . . . there’s plenty of bad amid the good.

Here’s a look at Ramaphosa’s first six months in the hot seat. WHAT EXPERTS THINK Six months is a little too early to determine just how good or bad a president is, says Stellenbosch University political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast.

“South Africa is still recovering from the Zuma administration so Ramaphosa is still dousing those fires while trying to make his own mark.”

Political analyst Daniel Silke believes the president’s first six months were no great shakes. “They’ve been an attack on the poor,” he says, referring to the VAT and fuel levy increases. AS GOOD AS HIS WORD? Ramaphosa made a lot of promises during his first state of the nation address, including that the first national minimum wage would be introduced and there’d be no further disruption in the payment of grants.

He also vowed to look into the governance of the SA Revenue Service (Sars) and appoint a presidential economic advisory council – tick and tick.

He dealt with the national minimum wage bill too: it was approved by the national council of provinces and is now on Ramaphosa’s desk waiting to be signed into law.

But grant payments remain an issue and there have been ongoing disruptions to the service millions of people rely on.

Ramaphosa inherited a problematic department, Breakfast says, and he now needs to prioritise it. “Grant payments are close to the poor’s hearts and are very important to voters. He can’t afford any mistakes here.” CABINET BLUES Within days of his swearing in Ramaphosa brought Pravin Gordhan back into the fold as public enterprises minister and reinstated Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister.

Bringing back these financial heavyweights was a great move, Breakfast believes, and helped restore confidence in the government.

Keeping disgraced ministers Bathabile Dlamini (minister of women in the presidency) and Nomvula Mokonyane (minister of communications) might be seen as a mistake but Ramaphosa was between a rock and a hard place, Breakfast says.

“He doesn’t have political monopoly and there are still a number of people associated with Zuma in the ANC. He would’ve been accused of a purge if he’d got rid of all of them.

“He shouldn’t have kept Dlamini and Mokonyane but the politics at play are understandable. He can’t be seen as going against unity when he’s said he would work to unite the ANC.” SOARING COSTS The first budget tabled under Ramaphosa’s leadership included provision for a one percentage point VAT increase which led to an increase in the price of

food and other essentials. The hike was because of “the need to promote the growth of an inclusive economy, to redistribute resources to meet the needs of the poor, and to ensure sustainable management of public finances”, Ramaphosa told parliament during his questionand-answer session on 22 August.

The price of fuel has also soared and opposition parties have called for a decrease in the fuel levy to alleviate the strain on the pubic. Breakfast believes the VAT and fuel levy increases were coming, with or without Ramaphosa.

“After Zuma announced the possibility of fee-free education, the money had to come from somewhere. And unfortunately that somewhere is the pockets of the taxpayers,” he says. BUSTING CORRUPTION Ramaphosa swore he’d clamp down on graft and so far he’s living up to his promises, analysts believe.

Eskom has a new board, the CEO of Transnet has been asked to show reasons why he shouldn’t be suspended and the SABC board has “also seen positive change”, Breakfast says.

But the biggest indication is the commission of inquiry into state capture now underway under Judge Raymond Zondo.

“It shows that Ramaphosa took some of the recommendations from former public protector Thuli Madonsela’s report on state capture seriously,” Breakfast says.

But the state capture commission poses a danger to the ANC, Silke adds in a column. “The electorate are likely to be constantly reminded of the deterioration in governance over the past decade.”

The commission is dangerously close to the 2019 elections – although Ramaphosa will be hoping to give it a positive spin, Silke says. “By pointing to such a transparent and credible process the ANC can be shown to be committed to a willingness to deal with the wrongs of the past.” THE L WORD All Ramaphosa’s work could be undone by the current debate on the expropriation of land without compensation, analysts say.

The issue is gaining increasing traction overseas – especially after US president Donald Trump’s much-maligned and inaccurate tweet. “Secretary of State @SecPompeo to closely study the South Africa land and farm seizures and expropriations and the large-scale killing of farmers. South African Government is now seizing land from white farmers,” he said.

Ramaphosa addressed the issue in the UK’s Financial Times in the wake of the tweet furore.

“The proposals will not erode property rights but will instead ensure that the rights of all South Africans – not just those who currently own land – are strengthened.

“South Africa has learnt from the experiences of other countries, both from what has worked and what has not, and will not make the same mistakes that others have made.”

Silke says any attempt to improve SA’s image and change negative perception is vital.

“The Trump tweet might be heavy-handed, but don’t think these sentiments are present only in the White House. Businesses – both domestically and globally – will think twice about largescale investments within this context.”

There’s no coherent message from the government on land, Breakfast says. “This is because Ramaphosa doesn’t have the political capital to crack the whip.

“He’ll say one thing and reassure South Africa about the process and (ANC secretary-general) Ace Magashule will say something else.

“He hasn’t articulated his position clearly enough, he just keeps repeating the same thing over and over,” Breakfast says.

The mixed messages on land are a reminder Ramaphosa didn’t win support outright within the ANC, he says.

All in all, he adds, Ramaphosa has his work cut out for him in the next six months – especially with SA flocking to the polls in 2019.

‘South Africa is still recovering from the Zuma administration’