Are global extreme weather events the new normal for our planet?

THE last few days have experienced extreme rainfall over key economic strategic regions in South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

The hard-hit area in South Africa - Margate - is situated on the KZN south coast with five deaths and infrastructural damage estimated to cost millions of rands owing to a mid-tropospheric cut-off low.

There has been wide scientific documentation that cut-off lows occur all year round with maximum peaks in March-April-May and September-October-November countrywide.

Studying these weather systems has increased over the years, and forecasts and understanding have improved.

However, the devastation is always felt when they do occur, prompting discussions about the importance of understanding climate communication and warning by the end-users.

Do societies understand what ‘probability’ in forecasts means? Is there a challenge in understanding the scientific jargon on shared warnings?

What is the state of the drainage systems in the country? Does the marginalisation of South African society play a role in susceptibility to extreme weather events?

Answering these questions will minimise confusion when transferring ‘scientific’ knowledge to a layperson, and possibly save lives.

This can also assist with identifying areas that are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events.

On the other hand, places in the United Arab Emirates and Oman were hit by a slow-propagating tropical storm that dumped over 254 millimetres of rainfall in 24 hours.

The aforementioned weather system caused flooding that resulted in unimaginable costs.

Global reports have also questioned whether the flooding in

Dubai was due to manipulation of the weather using cloud seeding.

This is an expensive and localscale process in which chemicals are implanted into clouds to increase rainfall in an environment where water scarcity is a concern.

All these beliefs related to weather and climate have raised a debate, with scientists saying extreme weather occurrences are largely linked to climate change, which is ignited by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

These extreme weather occurrences have become the ‘new normal’ and are expected to increase in future frequency and intensity.

This means it is very important that scientific findings, forecasts and facts are communicated and understood by key stakeholders.

This includes those who need them the most to avoid fatalities, destruction to infrastructure and damage to livelihoods.