NHS FACES BREXIT BOMBSHELL
National Health Service could face a bill of almost £500 million if retired Britons return home
THE NHS could face a bill of almost £500 million if the right to healthcare of retired British people currently living in other EU countries is withdrawn and they return to the UK, according to a new briefing by the Nuffield Trust on the impact of Brexit on the NHS and social care.
It claims this figure could be substantially higher if the NHS has to pay to replace staff if EU migration is reduced, or if it faces a rise in the cost of medicines.
The report also calculates that care homes and home-care agencies could end up as many as 70,000 staff short by 2025/26, if migration of unskilled workers from the EU is halted after Brexit.
“The NHS and social care were already under pressure from tight funding settlements and growing staffing problems well before the EU referendum last year. But if we handle it badly, leaving the EU could make these problems even worse,” said its author, Mark Dayan.
“It is possible that extra funds could be found for the NHS from any cancellation of Britain’s EU membership fees – but whether or not these benefits will outweigh the signifi- cant staffing and financial costs Brexit may impose on already stretched services remains to be seen.”
The report points out that public polls say the two most serious general election issues are leaving the European Union and the NHS, and stresses that these are closely connected.
It says 190,000 British pensioners currently live in other EU countries like France and Spain and receive healthcare under the EU reciprocal ‘S1’ scheme.
Based on these people’s age and their likelihood of using healthcare, if this benefit is withdrawn and they return to the UK the cost to the NHS is likely to be around £979 million.
This is about twice what the UK government currently reimburses to other EU states for their care, and therefore a net additional cost of around £500 million.
This number of pensioners would need an estimated 900 extra beds, and the report argues that beds and staff cannot simply be made available in the same way as funding.
Last year the NHS in England was employing 22,000 nurses from other EU countries, and almost a third of newly-registered nurses in the UK had trained in the EEA.
“There must be a commitment either to continue to allow substantial nurse migration after Brexit, or to increase the number of places for nurse training courses in this country,” the report insists.
It also notes that if the UK leaves the EU’s medicine licensing system there is a risk it could cost the NHS in excess of £100 million.