Scientists present full scale of Med climate emergency
Action is needed to combat serious risks to the Mediterranean Basin
SCIENTISTS have given an apocalyptic vision of how climate change could affect the Mediterranean area if action is not taken to halt rising temperatures.
A one-metre rise in the level of the Mediterranean Sea could occur in the next 80 years ‘massively affecting’ the 500 million people who live in coastal areas, according to a study presented in Barcelona last Thursday. The investigation, which is part of on-going research due to be completed next year, was carried out by 85 scientists who form part of the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (MedECC) network.
Supported by government agencies and other partners, their goal is ‘to produce a full synthesis of risks and present it to decision makers for debate and approval’.
“Recent accelerated climate change has exacerbated existing environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin that are caused by the combination of changes in land use, increasing pollution and declining biodiversity,” note the scientists. In most impact domains – such as water, ecosystems, food, health and security – current change and future scenarios consistently point to significant and increasing risks during the coming decades.”
Climate change around the Med
According to the scientists, average annual air temperatures in the Mediterranean Basin are now approximately 1.5°C higher than during the preindustrial period, well above current global warming trends (+1.1°C).
“Without additional mitigation, regional temperature increase will be of 2.2°C in 2040, possibly exceeding 3.8°C in some regions in 2100,” explain the scientists.
Summer precipitation will decrease by 10 to 30% according to the area.
Extreme events – such as heat waves, droughts, floods and forest fires – will become more frequent, they note.
The combination of effects will mean that the ‘geographic distribution of terrestrial and marine species’ will change.
In the sea the number of invasive species will increase and ‘mass mortality events’ mainly involving coral will occur due to higher water temperatures.
Sea surges
According to the scientists, risks to residents living in coastal areas will be caused by the rising sea level, storm-surges, flooding and local land subsidence.
They note that global loss of ice volume in Antarctica, Greenland and many mountain areas is likely to cause accelerated sea level rise, higher than recent estimates.
“This rise directly affects the Mediterranean where a large part of the population lives very close to the coast and they would be affected by storm surges,” notes the report.
Limited resources and conflicts may lead to large-scale human migrations – and southern and eastern Mediterranean countries are often more vulnerable to this, explains the report.
Health
According to the scientists, heatrelated illnesses and fatalities would become more frequent, especially in cities, caused by urban heat-island effect.
Climate change would lead to the emergence of vector and water-borne diseases – and pollen allergies would increase.
Air, soil and water quality would deteriorate.
While food demand would increase, crop, fish and livestock yields would decline, they note.
Action needed
According to the scientists, ‘to facilitate decision-making in the face of these risks, a scientific synthesis of current knowledge is needed, covering all relevant disciplines, sectors and sub-regions’.
More profound investigation is needed to provide ‘an integrated view on the Mediterranean Basin’. They explain that policies for the sustainable development of Mediterranean countries need to mitigate the risks and ‘consider adaptation options’.
The MedECC scientists note that they are part of ‘a dedicated effort to synthesize existing scientific knowledge across disciplines’ which aims to provide a better understanding of the combined risks posed.