Goodbye Europe after 47 years

In just a few days’ time, the UK will make history by becoming the first nation ever to leave the European Union. It will be a watershed moment which will illustrate just how divided the country is over the most important decision to affect the UK since the Second World War. Millions of Britons will feel pleased that their wishes have come true, and equally millions will feel deeply saddened, bitter and disappointed.

Attempts by Brexiter zealots to celebrate their Brexit victory by ringing Big Ben at 11pm on the night of departure from the EU have thankfully come to nothing so far. This would only serve to entrench already deep divisions and embitter remainers all over the country. In addition, ringing Big Ben to celebrate Brexit as a public act of Brexit triumphalism would especially serve to help the cause of rampant Scottish nationalism by contributing to the widespread feeling of alienation by most Scots. This would not be the best way to try and unite our very disunited kingdom.

If we take a closer look at the results of last month’s general election, in particular at the percentage of votes cast, instead of the number of seats won, we can clearly see that Boris Johnson is taking the UK out of the EU with most people against. Leave supporting parties (Conservatives, Brexit Party and the Democratic Unionist Party) combined only reached 46.4% in total of the popular vote. While parties more or less backing a remain posture (Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP, Greens, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru and the SDLP) summed up 51.9% of the vote. The reverse of the June 2016 EU referendum result. Indeed, a recent opinion poll in the Independent newspaper (January 12) highlighted this apparent contradiction. Just when we are due to leave the EU most people seem to be against leaving after all.

The vagaries of the British first past the post electoral system are to blame here for a misrepresentation of the people. The old fashioned first past the post system means that even if a candidate wins a seat by only one vote, all the other combined votes are completely ignored. Not very representative or democratic for the 21st century world, but Britain is an anachronism in many ways. Brexit is just another obvious idiosyncratic example. It would seem to be too late for this pro-remain opinion poll to have any impact. Boris Johnson and his hard Brexit government are definitely not interested. They would say that they won the election according to the rules and it is now game over for remainers. Without a doubt many in the EU are pleased to see the back of us. We have been a thorn in the flesh of repeated grandiose Franco-German plans to dominate and control the European continent since the late 1970s through federalism and ambitious economic and financial convergence plans. Whilst traditional antiBritish federalist frustration can be understood, it has been surprising and disappointing to see how our closest neighbour France under Mr Macron, and to a lesser extent Germany under Merkel, have been seemingly in a hurry to get rid of us, rather than try to accommodate and work out a solution to our genuine concerns regarding the far ranging long-term consequences of free movement on British society. Britain is not to blame alone for Brexit. Brussels, and in particular France and Germany as the most influential continental members of the EU club, also have their fair share. They do not seem to care too much about understanding why Brexit has happened or about reforming the EU to try and prevent it from possibly happening again.

The idea of European neighbours working together to promote peace and prosperity, rather than fighting and killing each other as we have done for centuries is intrinsically a very sensible idea, but Europe as a continent is not just 27 or 28 countries. There are some 44 countries in total which geographically are classed as being European. One of the main characteristics, and advantages, of Europe is its rich cultural and historical diversity. This is one of the main reasons for Europe’s greatness, so the basic idea of bringing this vast array of diverse European countries together to cooperate should not be monolithically limited or restricted, like some sort of an untouchable sacred cow, to being a full member of the EU or nothing. Different countries should be able to freely decide which level of cooperation and integration is good for them with the sufficient flexibility to be able to increase or reduce their level of integration over time according to their particular circumstances, but most importantly, without being shown the exit door if they question or don’t agree. Europe, if it is to succeed as a region of peace and prosperity, must develop a flexible system of concentric circles or different levels of mutual cooperation and integration without anyone being excluded. This is the correct and most appropriate practical model of multilateral cooperation for Europe. If some countries, like France and Germany, etc, want to proceed with ambitious plans for political union, then they should be allowed to do so, but other countries whose history and circumstances condition them to be more cautious and less ambitious, should also be respected and not forced to fall in behind the Franco-German axis like colonies. If the European project is to succeed, and Europe does need this, a much more open, flexible and dynamic approach is needed. If not, perhaps another Brexit will be on the cards.

The force of history at the beginning of the 21st century would seem to clearly indicate to us that success will belong to big political and economic blocks, like the USA, China and Russia. European leaders owe it to their people not to be left behind in the global struggle for peace and prosperity. We can achieve much more together than separately and divided. In total, the combined GDPs of the EU28 make the EU a global economic giant, bigger than the USA or China. More imagination and flexibility has to be shown regarding the European project for it to work properly and not be hijacked by any one country. Britain should not be leaving the EU at the end of this month. It is a travesty of history which many different leaders are to blame for in their pursuit of short term selfish interests.

All sorts of different reasons can be blamed for Brexit. To name only a few of the most obvious – competing geopolitical interests from rival global actors like the USA, Russia and China. The regulatory eagerness of the Brussels bureaucracy to control almost everything that moves, some commentators have said, gave an increasing urgency to push the Brexit agenda with particular regard to the recent Panama papers scandal relating to the intention of Brussels to clean up and regulate the diaspora of off-shore tax havens of which Britain has a long list of overseas territories which fall into this category where large quantities of money can be successfully hidden from the ‘greedy’ eyes of the public tax authorities. The ideological desire to have an American, or Singapore style, deregulated economy, as a paradise for free market neo-liberal zealots and rich business leaders must be taken into account as well. And last, but not least, the enduring desire of some sections of the British population, especially of the English, and particularly pensioners who can remember the ‘good old days’ before Britain’s entry into the European Community in 1973 or working class people of all ages who feel economically and socially left behind and excluded by globalisation and the digital revolution. All of these factors have contributed, each in their own way, to bring about Brexit.

Brexit, quite apart from its pan-European aspect, has given new life to Scottish nationalism and demands for Scottish independence. Most Scottish people feel that Brexit is just another symptom of the old idea that the opinions and interests of Scotland are systematically and arrogantly ignored by the Westminster political and financial elite. We are only 8% of the UK electorate. This belief dates back to the 1980s and the times of Margaret Thatcher’s radical economic reforms which saw most public industries shut down without any proper long term viable alternative put in place. Much suffering resulted amongst the poorest sections of the Scottish working classes which has not been forgotten and has passed into the collective memory along with William Wallace and Robert Bruce. Something very similar has happened to the north of England as well, but the reaction of the Scottish people has been radically different. In Scotland the EU, or workers from the EU, are not seen as the problem or the cause of economic decline and neglect. It is the neo-liberal, free market privatisation and austerity policies of successive Tory governments which are detested and blamed for Scotland’s woes. Brexit is regarded as the latest chapter of a new version of neoliberal policies designed to benefit the elites, not ordinary people. Scottish people have a very different philosophy about the economy, society and life which is in no way as individualistic or liberal as in England. Surprisingly, in areas traditionally associated as being the Labour heartlands, the so called red wall – most working class people have seen the EU and the free movement of European workers as the enemy and a cause of low wages and their lack of prosperity or, at most, as being purely irrelevant to their lives.

UK domestic political leaders, like Thatcher, Cameron, May and Johnson seem to have successfully escaped any blame for the abandonment and neglect of the north. Undoubtedly there is much truth to all sides in how Brexit is seen and understood in both northern England and Scotland. Nevertheless, if nothing is done to try to convince most Scots that Brexit will be good for them, and it will take lots of public spending to try and change public opinion in Scotland regarding Brexit, there exists a great danger that Brexit will mark the beginning of the end of the UK as we know it.

Most Scottish people feel frustrated that they were falsely promised in 2014 that if they voted to leave the UK they would automatically be expelled from the EU, then in 2016 the Brexit referendum meant that Britain would leave the EU thereby taking Scotland out of the EU against the wishes of the majority of its people. Brexit has meant that many previously unionist protestant Scottish voters have begun to support and even vote for the SNP and independence as a viable alternative for Scotland’s future. This is a game changer and is one of the main reasons why so many people in Scotland are voting for Nicola Sturgeon’s party. Increasingly, the old sectarian divide between Protestants and Catholics, especially in the west of Scotland, is breaking down and a new popular mentality based on a common Scottish identity has dawned as a result of Brexit. The Tory Brexit Project has unified Scots as never before in recent times and is a powerful force to be reckoned with.

No attempt whatsoever has been made by May or Johnson to try and negotiate Brexit with the Scottish Government. This has helped convince most Scots that UK Tory governments, especially Johnson’s government, are more interested in Brexit at any cost and are prepared to sacrifice Scotland and Northern Ireland on the high altar of Brexit than in sincerely doing everything possible to maintain the union. The post Brexit future for Britain is uncertain, but one thing I can predict is that if Brexit is not accompanied by an economic miracle, it looks highly likely that the Scottish people will vote to go their own way and be like the Republic of Ireland which freely decides its own future and has remained within the EU. Many Scots increasingly see Ireland as the example to follow. It will take a lot of work on the part of Boris Johnson to try and convince most Scots that they are better off in the UK rather than being in charge of their own destiny. I am not sure Johnson is up to the task, or that he is a convinced unionist. Ask the leaders of the DUP and of Ulster unionists their opinion about this and they will clearly tell you that they feel betrayed as never before and sold down the river by Johnson and the Brexiteers. Johnson could well go down in history for another reason, apart from taking the UK out of the EU, as the last PM of the UK.

As a convinced remainer I wish our European neighbours well in their endeavours of political and economic union with a profound sense of sadness that Britain will not be there in Brussels to defend its own national interests in our own continent and backyard. Deep inside me I have the hope that, if Brexit goes badly – as many predict – that the British people, faithful to their traditional pragmatic nature, will admit their mistake and ask for readmission to the Brussels club. Only time will tell what happens in the end, and whether Scotland will eventually become independent or if Irish reunification will take place, but one way or another, whatever your opinion about Brexit, it is a historic moment indeed both for the UK, and for the European project.