COVID-19, Brexit, Johnson and the Russia Report
THE COVID-19 virus which took us all by surprise at the beginning of March this year looks as if it's here to stay. Not only has the infamous virus caused the death of nearly 652,000 people around the world so far, according to official figures since the beginning of the year but is provoking untold economic hardship to millions of workers and businesses as well. Governments all over the world are faced with the same difficult conundrum; to give priority to public health or the economy. Even countries like Spain which was reasonably quick to introduce one of the strictest nationwide lockdowns in the world continues to suffer the serious consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.
Five weeks after lifting the national state of emergency Spain has seen a notable increase in outbreaks in most areas, but especially in the northern regions of Aragon, Navarra and Cataluña. In the last couple of weeks the number of cases has tripled from 8.8 to 27.4 per 100,000. This rapid rise in Covid-19 infections has caused a growing number of European countries to impose travel restrictions and quarantines in recent days on travellers from Spain. About 600,000 British travellers, mainly tourists, are currently on holiday in Spain and are directly affected by the surprise announcement of the British authorities last Saturday evening of a 14-day quarantine on everyone arriving from Spain causing uncertainty and many people to cancel their much desired Spanish breaks. It is calculated that about 1.8 million Britons will have their summer holiday plans in Spain affected.
On the reverse side of the coin the Spanish government is frantically engaged in a diplomatic damage limitation exercise to try and persuade the British authorities to exempt the Balearic and Canary Islands from the blanket quarantine. Other badly hit tourist areas of the Spanish Mediterranean coast which heavily depend on British holidaymakers are the Alicante area including Benidorm, the Costa del Sol and the Costa Brava. The massive dependence of the Spanish tourist industry on British clientele is demonstrated by the fact that about 40% of all holidaymakers in Benidorm are British. In fact, Benidorm has become known familiarly in Spanish as la
Pequeña Inglaterra due to the absolute dominance of British holidaymakers in the coastal town. It's not just Benidorm and the surrounding Costa Blanca which relies heavily on the ever faithful army of British tourists to keep the local tourist industry afloat. Many other coastal areas rely on British money as well. Various regional leaders are adding their voices to a growing list of tourist areas such as the Canary and Balearic Islands and the Valencia and Andalucía regions which claim to have a lower infection rate than in Britain and are pressing to be excluded from the devastating effects of the British quarantine, but without any success so far.
Last year official Spanish figures detail that over 18 million British tourists visited Spain in 2019. Far more than any other nationality. The Brits are the kings of the castle when it comes to sheer numbers of visitors and the amount of money they leave behind in the Spanish economy. Overall tourism represents about 13% of Spanish GDP and is an essential pillar of the regional and national economy. British holidaymakers represent the highest share of the Spanish tourist sector at nearly 21%, with German and French tourists representing only 11.7% and 8.9% respectively. The relatively fast exit from the national state of emergency was supposedly to help save the summer for the large Spanish tourist sector, but the recent stream of travel restrictions from a growing number of European countries and the 14-day British quarantine measures have been a hammer blow quashing any lingering hope of saving this year's summer tourist season from outright disaster. The Covid-19 health crisis has laid bare the heavy dependence of many areas of Spain on tourism, especially British tourists. It is a very sad situation from all perspectives.
This atypical year of 2020 is also dominated by the continuing fallout from the Brexit saga. As the number of deaths from the coronavirus pandemic began to drop and lockdown measures were lifted inevitably Brexit began to resurface in the media. Only five months remain of the transition period after Britain officially left the EU back at the end of January and the media is dominated again by talk of a no-deal Brexit adding further economic woe to an already badly hit British economy with around 9.5 million jobs furloughed by the UK government. Despite repeated calls from opposition parties, numerous pressure groups and academics to extend the transition period until an acceptable trade agreement is reached with the EU, Johnson and his government have ignored all evidence against the high risk policy strategy being pursued and of impending economic chaos from January 1.
Added to this critical situation recent opinion polls have indicated a surge in popular support for Scottish independence in the wake of Brexit and the Covid-19 health crisis. Support for Scottish independence has risen to 54% for the first time ever due to the lasting popular resentment against what is regarded as the unfair and arrogant imposition of a hard Brexit by Johnson on the Scottish people and the conception in the popular mind that the health emergency has been far better managed in Scotland by a more careful and cautious approach by Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon compared to what is seen as the disastrous and shambolic handling by Johnson and his government of the coronavirus pandemic in England. As a result, many otherwise pro-unionist Scots have become increasingly convinced that Scotland can make its own decisions about important affairs like Covid-19 and Brexit and far better than Johnson and his government.
It is a well-known fact that the personal figure of Johnson is not liked by the overwhelming majority of Scots. Ruth Davidson, the former dynamic and successful leader of the Scottish Tories went as far as to resign last August over serious policy discrepancies with Boris Johnson leaving the recent revival of the Tories north of the border to fizzle out. Johnson's promoted public image of a bumbling, aristocratic beer drinking old Etonian might go down well with a majority in England, even incredibly enough amongst the working classes of the neglected northern English ‘Red Wall’ constituencies, but this is certainly not the case in Scotland. Quite simply it is not an over exaggeration to state that Johnson is detested by a broad cross party majority in Scotland. Even many traditionally unionist Scottish Tories are unconvinced by his Brexit flagship policy and his mishandling of the Covid-19 health crisis amongst many other reservations about his style of government steamrollering the role of parliament in controlling the executive. Many regard the constant talk of the Brexiteers of safeguarding the sovereignty of parliament and taking back control from the EU as mere hot air after seeing the contempt with which Johnson has treated parliamentary scrutiny in recent votes to prevent the House of Commons from debating and voting on future international trade deals and the possible privatisation of the NHS.
The rise in support for Scottish nationalism has its roots back in the turbulent 1980s and the Thatcher era characterised by the hated Poll Tax and deindustrialisation. Brexit and Covid-19 have served to reinvigorate Scottish nationalism with a newfound popular confidence that Scotland can run its own affairs better on its own. Next year's Scottish Parliamentary elections in May will be another watershed moment with a string of recent opinion polls predicting a large majority for the SNP who have repeatedly stated that they will include as a priority in their election manifesto another independence referendum to give Scots the chance to decide, in post Brexit Britain, if they want to break free and rejoin the EU or continue as a part of the UK. Many believe that Johnson is incapable of fixing the Scottish problem and that his recent flying visit to Orkney and the North East of Scotland was a panic stricken farewell visit. To be honest, after Brexit the dark clouds on the horizon do not look good for the continuation of the 313 year old political union with England. Time will tell.
Lastly, but not least, the recent and much delayed publication of the Russia Report by the House of Commons Intelligence and Security Committee has shown us the large scale corruption at the heart of the British establishment. Over the years since the 1990s, after the fall of the former Soviet Union, but especially after the rise to power of Vladimir Putin, large quantities of Russian money have been pumped into the British economy and directed towards influential people to the extent that a whole class of people in and around London have been apparently receiving laundered Russian money with no questions asked. This has been going on to the extent that some commentators have begun to call London ‘Londongrad’. The report says, amongst many other important things, that London has become a money laundering hub for Russian elites — and that "in brief, Russian influence in the UK is 'the new normal’.” The extent of Russian interference and meddling in the British political and democratic system, particularly with reference to the 2016 Brexit referendum is also called into question by the report as well. The House of Common's Intelligence and Security Committee said it can't determine whether the Kremlin tried to influence the 2016 Brexit referendum, because the government hasn't even tried to find out. Obviously, the big question is why not? The committee's report pointed out that this inaction by the British authorities represents a ‘stark contrast’ with the U.S., ‘where an intelligence community assessment of possible Russian interference was produced within two months’ of its 2016 presidential election. What is abundantly clear from all of this murky political and financial scandal related to Russian money is the widespread corruption at the heart of the British establishment and political system. It is the sign of a society in decline, especially moral and ethical decline.