Twice FALSE on GDP growth

False 1:

‘Fact Check’ is a platform run by Verité’ Research. The figures indicated by ‘Fact Check’, in order to refute the statements made by the former President, are based on the 2017 Central Bank report. According to the 2014 Central Bank report, the real GDP rate for 2013 was 7.2% and it was adjusted to 3.4% in the 2017 report. Similarly, the GDP rate for 2014 was 7.4% whereas in the 2017 report, it was shown as 5%.

While there is nothing wrong in adjusting the ‘base year’ estimates for National Accounts compilation by the Department of Census and Statistics and/ or the Central Bank (‘base year’ estimates were revised in 1982, 1996, 2002 and 2010, etc) in my view already published data in respect of the previous years should not be adjusted and shown, unless those figures were mere ‘provisional figures’ and subsequently adjusted to reflect recent estimates.

As a reputed research organisation, this fact should have been mentioned and qualified by VR and it is not reasonable to expect same from MR. Interestingly, what is not stated here is that since then, the real GDP growth figures are something like 4.5% and 3.1% for 2016 and 2017 respectively while 2018 and 2019 are no better.

False 2:

As you may be aware, the figures pertaining to ‘Per capita income’ for the purpose of any discussions on ‘political economy’ are stated at current market price in US dollars and not in constant Rupee millions.

According to the Central Bank report-2017, the ‘Per capita income’ in 2014 was US$3,821; and in 2005, it was US$1,242. This is a threefold (in fact a 208% increase). Therefore, it is not a false statement coming from the former President, who was in charge of the finance ministry during the period under review. The relevant figure for 2017 was US$4,065, which is only 6.4% increase during the past three years.

Jayampathy Molligoda