PM calls for an Indian Ocean Order
'Global Power Transition and the Indian Ocean'--Inaugural address by Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe at the Indian Ocean Conference on September 1, in Singapore No one state to dominate, cooperation between SAARC and ASEAN needed
Over the past 500 years, the Indian Ocean region lost control of its geo-political and geo-economic relevance. First the entire region was subjugated to colonial dictates, and then in the post-colonial era, to cold war concerns and global power plays. You will agree with me that currently the global political and economic balance of power is undergoing tectonic shifts and major re-adjustments are in the offing. Single power and duopoly appear to be a thing of the past, and for the first time in five centuries economic power in the world is moving again towards Asia.
Aside from which the global financial system is moving away from a single currency (the dollar) dominated international system towards a multi-currency international system. New sources of investment capital are reducing western dominance. New consumer markets and the expansion of the Asian middle class are changing the traditional focus of markets.
Several megatrends are also poised to enhance on this shift.
First, it is expected that the individual will be empowered due to reduction in poverty, the rise of the middle classes, the ICT revolution and widespread use of communication technology, the social media and better health care.
Second, there will be a diffusion of power with the unipolar world - giving way to a multipolar one - based on networks, coalitions and alliances.
Third, demographic changes, aging populations will impact on economic growth of certain countries.
Fourth, the demand for food, water and energy resources will increase substantially with the growth of the global population.
And fifth, climate change and shifts in the environment will impact on economies across regions. This re-adjustment is increasingly evident in the economic forecast for the next few decades.
There will be resistance to any single country attempting to unilaterally shape the strategic order of the region. Yet building political will and strategic trust and the institution of institutional structures are all prerequisites for such an inclusive multilateral strategic security order that can respond in case of any emergency.
But in reality, these two oceans of Asia also make for two distinct spheres of influence within the Asian continent, each maintaining separate sophisticated trading and political systems while interacting with each other.
The Indian Ocean still has a heavy British influence- the Pacific has taken to American practices. We play cricket, they play baseball, the rest play football.
For instance, unlike the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Region has been intrinsic to US security. For this reason US Administrations from Presidents Franklin D Roosevelt to George W Bush have treated these two areas separately.
On the other hand - the countries in the Indian Ocean Region have historically been reluctant to join power blocs. Despite superior economic and military might, even during colonial times it was difficult to dictate the future of the Indian Ocean Region. The countries of the region have historically played a significant role in global trade and commerce, given rise to some of the great civilizations and religions of the world, and are home to unique and diverse cultures and histories. Whilst partnership and collaborative relationships were built with countries and civilizations outside the region, the region maintained its multipolar characteristic.
To my mind, the notion of Indo-Pacific or the Indo Asia-Pacific appears destined to remain a more conceptual rather than a realistic premise. The collapse of the Trans Pacific Partnership has further weakened the arguments for it. Ladies and Gentlemen, In contrast, the Indian Ocean has emerged as one of the world’s busiest and most critical trade corridors, rapidly surpassing the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Covering a vast global expanse - extending to East Africa in the West, Australia in the East, South Africa in the South, the Indian Ocean is well poised to regain its influence in world politics and the global economy.
The Indian Ocean Region has always been a significant playing field for big powers. Historically it has also been a bridge between the East and West.
Moreover, South Asia is also kindling underpinned by the growth of India, making it one of the fastest growing regions of the world. Since South Asia dominates the Indian Ocean and therefore this power transition in the Indian Ocean will be heavily influenced by South Asian developments.
Consequently, I see the South Asia and ASEAN countries presenting an emerging opportunity that can bring with it benefits similar to those that came in the past to the Atlantic and Pacific basins. That is the challenge of the next decade or two. Our responses will shape our destiny in the 21st Century. The cooperation and coordination between ASEAN and SAARC including the Ramayana Connection have given us strong cultural affinities. We have similar Governmental institutions and commercial practices. The English language is a link language. We have a huge cohort of youth more regionally conscious than their parents. We also have a lot of work to do in bringing these two groups together. More frank in-depth discussions; Ongoing dialogue at the highest levels. We must not allow the internal disputes and differences of these multilateral organisations to impede the collective relationships between the two groups. It also challenges SAARC to reach a higher level of cooperation than what we have been able to achieve so far.
The opportunities are there - waiting to be exploited – and with ingenuity we should be able to forge ahead. Ladies and Gentlemen The multipolar world we live in will be dominated by the competition among the five or six major Global powers during the next two decades. It may well be a protracted undetermined contest. The Indian Ocean will be a major theatre of competition.
On the other hand - the countries in the Indian Ocean Region have historically been reluctant to join power blocs. Despite superior economic and military might, even during colonial times it was difficult to dictate the future of the Indian Ocean Region.