Whither Sri Lanka when China rules the world?

Martin Jacques’ world famous book, When China Rules the World, would have been an ideal book to read, for our Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his entourage on their flight to Beijing. This book was the choice of Larry Summers, as his travel companion for the 2010 World Economic Forum in Davos. The book, first published in 2009 to widespread critical acclaim and controversy, has sold over a quarter of a million copies and has been translated into eleven languages, (but not into Sinhalese or Tamil) and nominated for two major literary awards. It aroused serious discussion and concern in the US-led West and globally, about the role of China in the creation of the 21st century new world order.

In the new updated edition, Jacques has renewed his assault on conventional thinking about China’s ascendancy, showing that its impact will be as much political and cultural, as economic, transforming the world. Martin Jacques, a highly distinguished British scholar and columnist lived in China for several years studying China’s past and post 1949 achievements and what China’s intellectuals are thinking and how they are influencing policy makers.

President Xi Jinping addressing a meeting of BRICS leaders in March 2013 said China would double its 2010 Gross Domestic Product by 2020 and would emerge as a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious by 2049. Jacques’s book is neither a work of fiction, nor his prediction that China will rule the world, an astrological forecast. As a political scientist, in his exhaustive incisive exploration of possibilities about the future, he predicts a future world order dominated by China. Jacques’ main arguments are as follows; China is not a nation state, but a civilisation state. During its 5000-year history, China has created a brilliant and profound culture. China’s DNA remains intact and seeks inspiration and parallels in its past. China is likely to conceive of its relationship with East Asia in terms of a tributary state. In East Asia there is an underlying recognition and acceptance of China’s superiority. A tributary dimension might emerge in its relations with Central Asia, Latin America and South Asia except India. China is fast joining the world, but remains aloof with a sense of superiority. China operates on a continental size canvas. India with a population of 1.2 billion is only one third the surface area of China. The West expects China to become democratic in the West’s own image. (Xi Jinping emphasised, “There is no one size fits all system”.) China’s modernity is distinguished by the speed of China’s transformation. Western attitude to China is highly influenced by the fact that China is ruled by the Communist Party. But the world’s most remarkable economic transformation in history continued to be presided over by the Communist Party. The US fears a global upheaval, which could reduce the US position in the world. China is the elephant in the room the West does not like to recognise. China exercises a gravitational pull on every other nation. When it comes to time zones, London might still represent zero - a legacy of its once dominant status in the world, but the global community will increasingly set its watches to Beijing time. (Chinese colony in the Port City is most likely to set its watches to Beijing time!) Time is on China’s side blessed with the virtues of patience. China has a deeply rooted superiority complex. The rise of China and the decline of US will be enacted on the financial and economic stage. China is slowly internationalising the role of Renminbi as a reserve currency. (The IMF recently accepted the Renminbi as a reserve currency for SDR) In the 1990s, globalisation was seen as winwin situation for the US. Now it is like a boomerang returning to haunt the US. The main beneficiaries are China and East Asia. China has emerged as an alternative model to the US. China refuses to be drawn into military conflicts or contests. (Thus far the US has failed in its efforts to open yet another war front in the South China Sea, due to China’s patience). While the US is engaged in wars China is busy implementing peaceful strategic initiatives such as, one belt one road, maritime silk route, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ( SCO), and the economic corridor to Pakistan. With the prospect of the Chinese economy surpassing the US economy by 2020, China will dominate and reshape the global system. China’s first step is to achieve global pre- eminence in economic power. Eventually its political and cultural influence will be even greater. China’s impact on the world will be as great as that of the US over the last century, probably far greater. China’s shrewd diplomacy has meant that India has constantly been on the back foot in South Asia, unable to assert itself in the manner, which its size would justify. Having adopted the trappings of western capitalism, China is modernising but not westernising as Japan did. American supremacy has been associated with the global dominance of the white race and by implication the subordination of the other races in an informal global hierarchy of races. Unlike Britain, the US or Germany, China is not emerging as a new powerful nation. China is regaining its lost status as the wealthiest, technologically advanced civilisation. Many Chinese have learnt English to compete better in the world economy, but the future belongs to Mandarin. It is rapidly edging out English as the preferred lan-

guage in Asia. China is a victim of tunnel vision, blind to the importance of China politically and culturally. Western consensus still sees history as a one-way ticket to westernisation and the Western way is the only viable model. Measuring China in terms of a Western yardstick is flawed. China remains determinately different from the world. How might the world work under Pax Sinica? Jacques ventures some fascinating guesses: The US promotes democracy within nations. China insists on democracy among nations. If the power of countries depends on how many people they represent, China will have more clout, than all the Western democracies combined.

Jacques’ predictions predictably disturbed the West, as seen by the reaction of some political pundits. Harvard Professor Joseph Nye criticised the book and portrayed his vision of US power in the 21st century, in his book, The Future of Power. William College Professor Sam Crane also criticised Jacques assertions. The book received praise from Harvard Economic Historian Niall Fergusson. He wrote: “The rise of China may well prove to be the defining economic and geo-political changes of our time.”

New York Times columnist Joseph Kahn in an article headlined ‘Waking Dragon’, said: “Since the first publication of Jacques’ book, the landscape of world power has shifted dramatically in the three years since the first edition was published.” It has transformed the debate. Jacques could have hardly known when he set out to write it that events would so accelerate the trends he was analysing.’’ Fareed Zakaria recommended the title, as the book of the week of his show in November 2010. He noted that, China is going to change the Western dominated world.

Until some time ago Jacques’s provocative thesis might have been dismissed as breathless hyperbole. But when the Western iceberg is breaking as is happening now, Sri Lanka cannot afford to ignore China’s moves to create a new world order which is bound to impact on Sri Lanka.

Politically and economically Sri Lanka’s ties with China are strong, despite efforts by the US to peel Sri Lanka from China as the Washington Post of August 16, 2015 put it. Sri Lanka figures prominently in China’s Maritime Silk Road strategy in the Indian Ocean, causing serious concern to India and the US. The Hambantota port and the Port City fit into China’s long- term strategy. China’s state owned Global Times in a special report published on April 7 said, “Since Pakistan cannot provide a strong foothold for China owing to its calamitous state of security, Sri Lanka is of strategic importance for China in the security strategic layout in the Indian Ocean. It will not only provide security for navigation for nearby channels but will also promote the 21st century M.S.R.”

Although Port City Agreement has been amended to give China 266 acres on a 99-year lease, let’s remember Britain ruled Hong Kong as a colony on a 99- year lease from China, with customs and immigration controls and a police force. It is realistic to expect China too to administer their territory in the Port City as an independent colony. How will the US and India react? Jacques does not predict that China will rule the world, as an imperial power as the 19th century Western powers. But he emphasises China’s superiority complex and its relationship with Asia in terms of a tributary state, as well as China’s gravitational pull on every other nation. Will Sri Lanka be able to resist even with the help of vastly diminished power of the US by 2049?

Jacques predicts that China will rule the world within the next two decades. But the crisis in the US-led West points to the possibility of the change occurring faster than Jacques has predicted.

It is incredible, that while the Western powers are either seeking to prevent China from ruling the world or embracing China (as Britain did recently), in Sri Lanka, Jacques book is not available in leading book shops. I had to borrow a copy from a library in Brisbane, Australia. Jacques gave a lecture at the Melbourne University a few weeks before that. Mandarin is taught as a second language in Australia, Indonesia and several European countries but not in Sri Lanka. It remains to be seen whether China can build a Pax-Sinica with a new world order. But when the Western iceberg is breaking apart as is happening now, Sri Lanka cannot afford to ignore China’s attempt to create a new world order.

I hope this article will induce the Foreign Ministry and intellectuals to organise debates on Jacques’s prediction. The Foreign Ministry should consider inviting Jacques to give a lecture at the Kadirgamar institute before the Chinese President visits Sri Lanka in 2017.

(The writer is former director of Merchant Shipping and shipping consultant to UNCTAD,

UNIDO, FAO and ITC.)