Dealing with Trump, pick the right cards
WSUNDAY, JANUARY 22, 2017
hether one likes it or not, the advent of a new President of the United States of America always has global significance. That is why one of the many ironies of the world is that only the people of America get to vote for the holder of that office, despite that nation wanting to be the ‘policeman of the world’.
Friday’s induction of the 45th President of the USA now known as the Disunited States of America, is a plunge into the unknown. It seemed the unfortunate Americans had the dilemma of closing their nose and voting for Hilary Clinton or closing their eyes and voting for Donald Trump.
Eventually, even though by a minority count of the popular vote, the unknown devil triumphed over the known, with the hope that it will be a leap for the better. Unpredictability is a Trump signature, say political observers who ask the world to get ready for a wild ride.
President Trump has arraigned China and aligned with Russia. He probably knows he must team up with one against the other for the day China and Russia get together, it would be curtains for the US Empire.
He believes he is morally superior and understands the world better because he’s made it very rich. His inaugural address was a pointer to a recognition that he rode to the White House on the backs of the working class and that he believes he’s the Chosen One to make ‘America Great Again’, his campaign slogan. Others feel, and hope, the ‘weight of office’ will temper him.
While the world is aghast at President Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, and Europe is already saying their ‘values’ are at stake, for Sri Lanka, the advent of a Trump Presidency is likely to be a ‘bitter-sweet’ experience. The Partnership Dialogue with the US is expected to continue, though the next meeting to be hosted by Colombo is likely to slip in terms of timing. TIFA – a process and a consultative forum on trade and Foreign Direct Investment will also probably continue.
And yet, the Trump Presidency seems adamant on reverting to the Protectionism route at a time when Sri Lanka and the world are looking for open trade, the hallmark of US-led free trade policies of the past. In Davos, Switzerland, the supra-rich CEOs who set the benchmarks for globalisation have been taken aback by Trumpism and the full circle the world is witnessing with the once trademark isolationist Communist China, now the leading advocate of globalisation and free trade.
Sri Lanka’s hopes, therefore, of a trade partnership with the US are on shaky turf with plans for market access to the US, one of our key trading countries in the balance. With the Trump Presidency so critical of TPPs (Trans Pacific Partnership), the pathway to a second round of countries like Sri Lanka is off the table. Thus, Sri Lanka will have to rely on an FTA (Free Trade Agreement) which again, is not going to be any free ride for Sri Lanka.
Developments in security co-operation could increase. There were recent joint exercises and the establishment of a Sri Lankan Marine Corps with US help, more ship visits and P-8 Orion submarine hunter aircraft visit to Mattala would seem a US strategic interest in Sri Lanka even though the 400 acre VOA radio station at Iranawila has closed down citing the fact that shortwave radio is no longer the preferred choice for news dissemination.
For those in Sri Lanka who hope that a Trump Administration will look more kindly at Sri Lanka the resolution its predecessor forced down the throat of the UN Human Rights Council to initiate a virtual War Crimes Tribunal, they will need to wait in suspended animation to see if there could be a reversal of the process. It is unlikely that there will be a complete U-turn by the US, but one might expect the March meeting of the UNHRC to note progress – and gaps, in Sri Lanka’s Human Rights record with a roll over resolution to 2018. Human Rights issues are too embedded in the UNHRC system. Then, there is the incoming US ambassador to the UN has already questioned the validity of the UN, but all this will be in the realm of uncertainty as everything else as the new Administration finds its feet in Washington.
What is certain however, is that President Trump (like his predecessor, President Barack Obama) is not going to have a hands-on interest in what goes on in this neck of the woods other than in the geo-political (Indian Ocean) sense when China’s increasing influence infringes upon US interests.
All these are ponderables that require a more dynamic and studied foreign policy initiative from Colombo than the nepotism and sheer incompetence of the Mahinda Rajapaksa Government and the ad-hocism that was shown by this Government in throwing good money after bad by hiring B-Grade lobby firms to do the Government’s work in Washington.
As President Obama left the Oval Office of the White House, he must have learnt at least one lesson, and that is that he was not necessarily holding the most powerful job in the world as many seem to think it is.
He swept to office with a broad smile, a cherubic demeanour and great ideals creating history becoming the first AfricanAmerican to hold that post, even though he was only half African. He has now left that job after eight years with a record high approval rating from his people having accomplished many things. His legacy will be providing free healthcare to 20 million American poor, restoring relations with long-standing enemy states Iran and Cuba and refusing to accept the theory that military intervention was the only solution to global conflicts.
Hamstrung by a hostile Congress, he still couldn’t bring gun control to America and race riots were a regular feature under his watch. He couldn’t even get a Supreme Court judge appointed. Abroad, he started arming rebel groups in Syria to oust its incumbent President (while complaining that Russia interfered in US elections) resulting in a massive refugee issue. And yet, there is no dispute that he was a good man, his heart in the right place and gave the US a human face it had lacked around the world.
The USA is not the centre of the Earth, but it is very much a power to reckon with. It may change its horses, but the caravan will move on. And it is up to countries like Sri Lanka to know how its own stars must be hitched to that moving wagon. No. 08, Hunupitiya Cross Road, Colombo 02. P.O. Box 1136, Colombo editor@sundaytimes.wnl.lk - 2331276 news@sundaytimes.wnl.lk - 2479332, 2328889, 2331276 features@sundaytimes.wnl.lk - 2479312, 2328889,2331276 pictures@sundaytimes.wnl.lk - 2479323, 2479315 sports@sundaytimes.wnl.lk - 2479311 bt@sundaytimes.wnl.lk - 2479319 funtimes@sundaytimes.wnl.lk - 2479337, 2331276 2479540, 2479579, 2479725 2479629, 2477628, 2459725