Afghan war: Trump’s Pakistan challenge
In Pakistan’s mind, according to Yusuf, the Taliban is its best ally for countering Indian influence in Afghanistan.
The second main reason for Pakistan’s behavior, experts say, is that it is hedging its bets should the United States withdraw from Afghanistan, the current government collapse and the Taliban come back into power.
The Taliban and the Haqqani network “are the people who can guarantee them at least a sphere of influence in Afghanistan if things fell apart there,” said Marvin Weinbaum, director for Pakistan studies at the Middle East Institute and former analyst for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
U.S. options for pressuring Pakistan include curtailing or conditioning aid, sanctioning Pakistani officials, stepping up drone strikes inside the country, taking away its status as a major non-NATO ally or even naming it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
“All of those things you just listed are on the table for discussion if, in fact, they are unwilling to change their posture or change their approach to how they’re dealing with the numerous terrorist organizations that find safe haven inside of Pakistan,” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters Tuesday.
The United States has put conditions on aid to Pakistan. Former President Obama’s last Defense secretary, Ash Carter, withheld $300 million meant for Pakistan for fiscal 2016 over insufficient action against the Haqqani network.
Defense Secretary James Mattis decided last month to withhold the remaining $50 million for that fiscal year for the same reason.
But there are a number of factors keeping the United States from acting more aggressively against Pakistan.
For one, U.S. forces rely on Pakistani ports and roads to resupply troops in landlocked Afghanistan. Pakistan could respond to increased U.S. pressure by cutting off access to those routes.
“They’ve got a chokehold on us,” Weinbaum said.
Another reason is that Pakistan’s concerns about India are so ingrained in the country’s security planning, nothing but drastic action could change its mind, experts say.
Yusuf said he does not see U.S. efforts on Pakistan working unless “there is a decision in Washington that it doesn’t matter if there’s a rupture” in the region.
Still, until the Trump administration specifies the new steps it will take against Pakistan, experts say it’s unclear how effective the effort will be.
“The reaction in Pakistan was much more a sense of eye-rolling than fear,” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center’s Asia program, said of the reaction the Trump’s speech. “The proof is in the details. Will Trump actually be willing to take more hard-line steps than before?”