“Home people don’t know what to do”

It was quite intriguing. I mean the Thursday morning conversation between Kussi Amma Sera (KAS) and Serapina (the neighbour’s domestic aide and KAS’s comrade-inarms).

The across-the-fence chatter (in loud voices) while both were sweeping the garden drew not only my attention but others down the lane walking by. Nothing like a good old gossip to energise you as the morning rays of the sun break through the trees. Taking a break while pondering on what this week’s topic should be, I watch the two and listen to their conversation through the office room window.

KAS: Serapina: KAS: Serapina: The mobile rings. It’s my jolly-mood economist friend, Sammiya (short for Samson) on the line. usual cheerful way. he asks in his

I say in response. The phone conversation then takes many twists and turns – just like the governance of today and the confusion in the two main parties in running the country – as we discuss the weather, disruptive politics, the economy, social unrest, liberal and social democracies and private sector growth. The conversation took the form of positive expectations in 2018 (not many as we discovered).

Interestingly, some predictions that were made in Kussi Amma Sera’s January 1st, 2017 column came true. There were also some in which we were way off-target. Here are excerpts from that column: “In Sri Lanka, whatever people may say and believe….you don’t need a soothsayer, an astrologer or a Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena (former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s fortune-teller) to gaze into the future. All you need is some common sense, a little intelligence and a bit of singer Sunil Perera’s not only to soothe the nerves but also predict with unnerving accuracy what would happen.”

“For example, you don’t need an expensive soothsayer to predict that the two governing parties – the UNP and the SLFP – would be at sixes and sevens this year. In the same breath, you don’t need witchcraft to be told that constitutional reforms (plus a referendum) are unlikely to happen this year (maybe next year but not 2017) given deep divisions in the government which for that matter would, most likely, put many of the plans for 2017 including tough economic reforms, on hold.”

Spot on. On the other hand, we were off-target in this comment: “With 2017 being a crunch year with uncertain political developments, foreign investment is unlikely to pick up from 2016 (another slow year for FDI).”

One may argue that large foreign cash inflows didn’t come in through FDI but came (in December in particular) through different sources – leasing Hambantota Port to China Merchant and an IMF tranche. Nevertheless, foreign cash inflows in whatever form is welcome and badly needed to settle nagging debt.

If one is to consider next year’s bucket list, the 2018 budget itself has an unending wish-list like for example the shift to electric-only vehicles; drink more beer and less arrack; reducing the number of telecom towers (a good proposal as long as telecom companies don’t pass on the increased tab to operate these towers, to consumers) and the emergence of a blue-green economy.

Another item on the wish-list is to be prepared to face unexpected natural disasters which disaster management agencies profess to be doing all the time but without any success, as the recent depression proved with high intensity winds blowing away rooftops and power cables. On the other hand, man-made ones are happening all the time and aren’t unexpected phenomena.

Mangala Samaraweera’s ambitious economic concept is also expected to dominate election platforms when the local government polls campaign gets into full swing in the coming days. While opposition politicians will rant and rave about how the government is putting a political twist to the economy (blue for the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and green for the United National Party) and there is nothing else in this new concept, governing politicians will be hard-pressed to explain to the rural population what a economy means and that it doesn’t (only) represent the colours of the two main partners of the government but has a larger meaning of economic growth based on sustainable ocean and landbased resources.

The phone conversation is then disrupted by another call on the landline – this time about a man-made disaster. said a worried tea broker-friend. Gently cutting off, I quickly switch on the computer (at the same time asking Sammiya to hold on for a while), and glance through a Reuters’ news agency story which said Russia has placed temporary restrictions on imports of all agricultural products from Sri Lanka, including tea, from December 18 after an insect, known as the Khapra beetle, was found in the packaging of one consignment of tea from Sri Lanka.

Russia is Sri Lanka’s biggest tea market and Colombo accounts for 23 per cent of Russia’s tea market. This is a big set-back and the last thing policymakers would have expected. As the country welcomes 2018 with a wish-list of more positive news as every honourable Sri Lankan would hope for, it is unfortunate to end the year on such a bad-news note.

I could hear Sammiya shouting on the mobile phone. Picking it up and apologising for the distraction and explaining why, we pick up the conversation and continue discussing the economy; the pluses and the minuses and agree that despite some good, moving-forward proposals in Mangala’s budget, uncertainty – continuing from 2017 – holds the key to progress. The local government elections will see a 3-cornered or 4-cornered contest (UNP, SLFP, Mahinda Rajapaksa-backed SLPP and JVP) for supremacy, with the UNP having the edge but likely to form a ruling coalition with the SLFP in most councils as no single party would be able to get 50 or even 40 per cent control.

As our conversation drifts to other matters and we cut off on a “let’s hope 2018 would be better” note, the garden conversation between Kussi Amma Sera and Serapina continues as both discuss their bucket or list for 2018.

Serapina could be heard saying, implying that the government was not doing the right thing.

Two interesting things come to my mind; the popular children’s song (at least during our childhood), Dear Liza’ popularised by 1960-70s generation singer Harry Belafonte and Wally Bastiansz’s ‘Kussi Amma Sera’. Wally’s ‘Kussi Amma Sera’ has the line

which can be used in the context of the government not knowing what to do while the saga talks about a never-ending problem, however much you fix it. Story of Sri Lanka. Story of 2017. Story of 2018!