Sri Lanka on the brink

The secretly plotted Great October Revolution of the President has not just backfired on him, but it has turned the country of which he is the Head of State, upside down, and inside out. In what has been a rare instance in the democratic world of a Head of State and of Government bringing his own Government down, the blame for the constitutional, political and countrywide pandemonium brought about by the knee-jerk reaction of October 26, 2018 must rest squarely at his doorstep and no one else’s. Try as he might to shift the blame to the Speaker of Parliament, it was an utterly misconceived and terribly miscalculated move in the first place.

Mercifully, democratic institutions like an elected Parliament and an independent Judiciary, with whatever shortcomings, have stood the test and ensured the country does not lose its credibility entirely as a functioning democracy. The shenanigans in Parliament this week speak for themselves. In these circumstances, one must show appreciation to the country’s Armed Forces for standing by democratic values and not being tempted to intervene. Like what has happened in some other countries with weak and fragile democratic institutions and traditions, and when politicians have made a mess of things, such interventions only plunge nations deeper into the abyss.

Instead of backtracking in the face of two major blows, i.e. not having a majority in Parliament and the Supreme Court knocking down his decree to close down Parliament and have elections, the President has stirred the pot further. He has challenged the Speaker’s decision to recognise the Prime Minister by virtue of a majority of the House.

The Speaker was well within his rights to ask the Members of Parliament who among them they had the confidence in, to be the Prime Minister. It was after all the President who appointed a new Prime Minister based on the constitutional provision that said he shall appoint as PM, the MP, “who in his opinion is most likely to command the confidence of Parliament”.

That opinion itself was a contentious issue. It is a well established law that the President in exercising this discretion cannot act arbitrarily or capriciously. As one eminent legal expert pointed out; “He cannot claim clairvoyant or other unfounded knowledge” in deciding who is “likely” to command the majority of the House.” He must have some definitive information and he clearly got caught to a dead rope.

What the Speaker did was to put that contentious issue to the test by way of a floor vote as demanded by what seemed to him the call by the majority of the 225 MPs. Those who opposed the vote now claim that it was not procedurally correct, and was a mere voice vote not properly counted, but it is clear that those who first said they commanded the majority of the MPs, have now shifted the goal post to calling for a general election instead.

There is a head-on collision between the Executive (President and Cabinet) and the Legislature (MPs). The Legislature now does not recognise the Cabinet. There is, therefore, an Executive (President and purported Cabinet insofar as the Legislature is concerned) that will not be able to get any laws passed by the Legislature. There will come a time when Executive orders from the President and/or the Cabinet will have their limitations, and the Government appointed by the President will come to a standstill.

The constitutional quagmire created has developed over the past 24 days into a prestige battle between the President and his choice of Prime Minister versus the Speaker and what is seemingly the majority choice of Parliament as Prime Minister. In the process, Sri Lanka has become the laughing stock of the international community, and a textbook case for autocrats who will cite the country as an example of what chaos prevails in democracies.

The Supreme Court stood tall this week in showing that even an Executive President must be subservient to the Constitution. That the 19th Amendment was poorly drafted and chaotically passed may be so, but it was passed by two-thirds of the MPs at the time nevertheless, and is now part of the Basic Law of this country. A retired professor of law now turned politician waxed eloquent when passing the 19th Amendment and even spoke of the merits of “tying the Executive President’s hands” from dissolving a Parliament for four and a half years after an election. These days, he speaks with forked tongue.

While these politicians battle it out - as their lives depend on its outcome, in a power grab that has gone awfully wrong, the rest of the country remains baffled, disgusted and in a state of animated suspense over what could be mistaken for a tragi-comedy teledrama with some violent scenes thrown in. Only the innate sense of humour of Sri Lankans watching this circus and performing clowns is keeping the sanity of the nation intact.

This is why we have often commended the need for fixed dates for elections, like in the United States. There would be no need then for guessing games as is a national pastime now. Elected Governments would know the time frame of their mandate and be able to plan how they will put the country on the right track during that time to face the people on a fixed date. The country’s election date ought to be signposted and need not depend on what the stars portend for the incumbent Head of Government, or what one astrologer deems is an auspicious day for one person.

The President’s argument, followed up by his choice of Prime Minister echoing the same theme that the country and its economy are in a perilous state may be good for electioneering, but it is still a downright dangerous supposition. Some seeking shortcuts to elections are proponents of the ‘Doctrine of Necessity’, a theory that enables state actors to justify unconstitutional acts by pleading “necessity”. This is the classic excuse for military interventions using the same doctrine.

A Cohabitation Government may not be the ideal political formula for running a country, but that was the will of the sovereign people in January and August of 2015, and it has to be allowed to run its course unless otherwise determined by the Constitution.

Having taken credit for the 19th Amendment and gone round the world proclaiming he was the only Executive President who voluntarily shed some of his powers to Parliament, the President now seems set to go against Parliament and the spirit of the Constitution, and the will of the people. Having descended into a deep hole he has dug for himself, the escape route seems to be the call for elections.

There seems to be no clear sign of the battle between the Executive and Legislature abating at this moment as both sides dig their heels in. Tomorrow’s Parliament can be another spectacle. If the standoff continues and the world watches, this country will soon slide from the brink of anarchy into a pariah state.