The world is watching
The chronic situation in Sri Lanka is not only watched with eager eyes and ears domestically, but so, too, internationally. It is a matter of equal significance to the ‘Modi’s’ (foreign governments) and the ‘Moody’s’ (foreign rating agencies).
The matter could get complicated if some countries recognise the new government, and others don’t. This is going to split the country into two camps from a global perspective. Already some Colombo-based Western diplomats are tweeting and commenting on the crisis. It is well within the remit of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to summon them to the Foreign Office either individually or collectively and remind them of the protocols in these matters.
Seeing the planned UNF/civil society call for a satyagraha with suspicious eyes, the new government is accusing the West of trying to instigate an ‘Arab Spring’ here. On the other hand, Russia and China are showing allegiance with the new government. These divisions don’t augur well for Sri Lanka that has, by and large, resisted falling into one of the two camps – the West versus the Rest.
The 52-nation Commonwealth, of which Sri Lanka has long been a member, takes a dim view of military coups and the ouster of democratically elected governments. It has suspended Nigeria, Pakistan (twice), Fiji etc., and a few years back, closer home, the Maldives. The case of the Maldives was not entirely a military take-over.
What happened in Sri Lanka is very similar to what happened in the Maldives. It is not without precedence for the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) comprising ten foreign ministers from member-states that study these happenings in the Commonwealth to act on the Harare Principles of Good Governance. In this instance, a President overthrew his own democratically elected government. Commonwealth leaders must be scratching their heads how to deal with this one-of-a-kind ‘coup’.
Recently, when the army in Zimbabwe overthrew long-time President Robert Mugabe, the Commonwealth remained silent. Kissing goes by favour in that Group dominated by nations known as the ‘white Commonwealth’. President Mugabe was hated by the ‘white Commonwealth’, so selectively, the CMAG turned a Nelsonian-eye because the Zimbabwe army quickly passed the country’s leadership to Mugabe’s political opponents.
It is not only foreign governments that have shown concern on the constitutional logjam in Sri Lanka. International rating agencies that indicate the credit-worthiness of a country have raised red flags and alarm bells. Their ratings can be pooh-poohed domestically, and the Central Bank is hotly disputing the recent downgrading of Sri Lanka, but they are important for a country living on borrowed money. International money-lenders take these ratings into account and so do foreign investors who keep an eye on the economic and political stability of a country before putting their cash down.
This again opens the doors to countries like China, ever willing to step in to fill the vacuum left by reluctant Western banks. Mindful of the accusations against it, China recently denied it was its policy to have countries (like Sri Lanka) fall into debt traps so they can have a stranglehold on them. But this is exactly what has befallen Sri Lanka, not entirely due to Chinese loans, however.
And what is worse, the country is now faced with a government that cannot pass any money bills in Parliament, and for now relies on the Active Liability Management Act introduced by the Wickremesinghe government which allows the government to approve borrowing money for three months without parliamentary approval. The problem will be the day Parliament says it will not honour these sovereign loans. What an unholy mess this is.