Presidential polls: SLPP discards Sirisena
JO parties will form their own alliance under a new constitution Mahinda Rajapaksa will convey decision to President Sirisena SLPP feels Sirisena may not win a presidential poll New developments worsen SLFP’s dilemma
The prospects for President Maithripala Sirisena to become the joint candidate of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) have faded and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) at this year’s presidential elections. Even the chance that existed for a tie-up of the two sides in an electoral alliance evaporated this week. Ironic enough, that was even before President Sirisena and his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa, the de facto leader of the SLPP were set to meet and discuss issues. This was to be a precursor to the two sides forming an alliance. Thereafter, the other smaller political parties were to join the two formidable players. President Sirisena’s own conduct appears to have disqualified him.
Last Monday, the ‘Joint Opposition’ constituent partners decided that they should resurrect their earlier plans for a new alliance among themselves. These plans were put on hold after October 26 last year, when President Sirisena swore-in Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister. He held office only for 52 days, until the Supreme Court refused to quash an Appeal Court interim order suspending the Prime Minister, his Cabinet, deputies and state ministers from functioning in office. A seven-judge Supreme Court bench also held that the move to hold parliamentary elections was unconstitutional.
Put on hold at that time was another exercise. A technical committee headed by onetime Minister Dullas Allahapperuma to formulate a constitution for an SLPP-led alliance with partners in the ‘Joint Opposition’. It was decided on Monday that this draft alliance constitution, almost complete, should now be quickly examined by a three-member committee. It is headed by SLPP nominal leader G.L. Peiris and includes Dinesh Gunawardena, leader of the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna, and Basil Rajapaksa, the national organiser cum architect of the SLPP.
Once finalised, it is to be signed by the leaders of the SLPP, the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP), the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP), the Communist Party (CP), the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU), the National Freedom Front (NFF), the Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya (SLMP), the United Left Front (ULF), the Desha Vimukthi Janatha Peramuna (DVJP) and the Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP). Party leaders on Monday also decided to invite other smaller parties like former Minister M.L.M. Athaullah’s National Congress, the People’s Servant Party (SLP), formed by the late JVP leader Somawansa Amerasinghe and the Eksath Lanka Maha Sabha (ELMS).
A new name, to be agreed upon, will replace their ‘Joint Opposition’ identity. Thereafter, any other party willing to join the proposed alliance will have to make requests individually to the leadership. This shuts the door for President Sirisena and the now emaciated SLFP. If the SLFP wants to join, it would have to first make a formal request and thereafter abide by the terms to be spelt out in the alliance constitution. That would mean no request to become a joint presidential candidate is to be entertained. There is also the question of how many SLFPers would join.
Sirisena-Rajapaksa talks
During the shortlived political honeymoon with Mahinda Rajapaksa as his Prime Minister, the President and the SLPP were engaged in talks for a common alliance. They even reached consensus on a name -- Sri Lanka Podujana Nidhas Peramuna -- a blend of letters of the SLFP and the SLPP. Though it weighed seemingly in favour of the SLPP as a party, there was acceptance. However, sharp differences arose over the symbol the proposed alliance would use. The SLFP sought its own hand symbol whilist the SLPP wanted to have the Betel leaf – the symbol used by the SLFP-led United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA). This was when political broker S.B. Dissanayake came up with a new suggestion -- they use the Vee Muttiya or a pot of harvested paddy.
These talks ended inconclusively when then Premier Rajapaksa relinquished office after the Supreme Court ruling. By then, a section of parliamentarians within the SLFP, incensed by moves to join hands with the SLPP, established back channel connections with the United National Party (UNP) leadership. That détente grew and emboldened a weakened UNP.
Monday’s decision has come as a dilemma for de facto SLPP leader Mahinda Rajapaksa. He and President Sirisena have maintained more than a cordial relationship after the political honeymoon that lasted 52 days. Neither spoke against each other on public platforms. Though Sirisena did not attend Rajapaksa’s younger son Rohitha’s wedding in their ancestral home in Medamulana due to his trip to Singapore, he turned up at St Mary’s Church in Bambalapitiya for a religious ceremony connected to the marriage. A Hindu ceremony was also held later.
Though they spoke on more informal matters during the church meeting, Rajapaksa has still not broached the subject of a common front with President Sirisena. One fear, it appears for him, is that he (Rajapaksa) would leave behind a wrong impression. It was over an SLFP argument that if he wanted to, he could have made Sirisena the joint candidate. This is by bringing his influence to bear on other ‘JO’ partners, a few of whom are in favour of Sirisena. This includes Wimal Weerawansa’s NFF.
However, other than last Monday’s decision by party leaders, the pressure on Mahinda Rajapaksa has weighed heavily against President Sirisena. So much so, ther are concerns over the wisdom of Rajapaksa taking the responsibility. A majority of parliamentarians, provincial councillors, SLPP stalwarts, party activists, analysts and even some UNPers have made strong points to support their claims to Rajapaksa, according to a highly placed source who did not wish to to be identified. And, that is where Rajapaksa’s remarks made to the Sunday Times (Political Commentary) recently become relevant. He declared that his party wanted to select “a winner as a presidential candidate.” Even if their move has still not been conveyed to President Sirisena, It has become inevitable that Rajapaksa does so within the coming weeks.
However unlikely it may seem, President Sirisena secured Cabinet approval last Tuesday for the conduct of Provincial Council (PC) elections before May 31 this year. UNF Ministers voted in favour of Sirisena’s memorandum, though there still remains a serious doubt an election will be held. The UNP, despite many strong public assertions by its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe last year, has not been able to conduct PC polls. The question is whether the party will be in favour of the move now. Firstly, even before Sirisena presented that memorandum, a similar one was presented to ministers and approved last year. It came from Faiszer Musthapha, then Minister of Provincial Councils and Local Government. Like his, Sirisena’s memorandum also stipulates the provision of 25% of the PC seats being reserved for female members. Provisions in the PC election laws would have to be amended for this purpose as well as to define the electoral system.
The critical question here, despite UNF ministers voting for the amendment is, whether they would still be in favour of conducting PC elections first. There is a potential threat for the UNF. Like at February last year’s local council elections, a defeat would be devastating. Thus, a defeat at PC polls this year could come as a severe, debilitating setback. Besides this, UNF leader Wickremesinghe, who is lining himself as the party’s presidential candidate will also face serious challenges in obtaining nomination. How the UNF could now avoid PC polls remains an important question, one on which its future political course hinges. Thus, it seems apparent that the UNF is aiming for a presidential election first, not even a parliamentary election for the same reason.
Problems with Sirisena
President Sirisena’s protagonists argue that his move to go for PC elections was with the knowledge that prospects for the UNP would be dimmer. Hence, they claim that an SLPP victory would be a further step for an SLFP tie-up. At least formally, he is still unaware that his SLFP’s equations with the SLPP has changed in the light of the decision on Monday. Though the SLPP is clamouring for PC polls early, its mood is one of not being appeased by the SLFP. With the SLPP’s decision now to go it alone with its own alliance, President Sirisena inevitably has found himself isolated. The same source identified some key points the SLPP and its partners have endorsed from the representations received. They have been acknowledged by