Dawn of a new era or Back to the future?

“V ox Populi” – the Voice of the People, have spoken loud and clear. The message reverberates throughout the country. The Rajapaksa Brothers convincingly cantered home at Wednesday’s Parliamentary elections. The country not just endorsed their Presidential victory back in November last year, but the performance was improved upon to garner 59% of the total vote – up from 52%. The good, the bad and the rascals are all back in the long awaited Parliament now.

That this vote was minus a mandate from the north is however worrisome. The north continues to be outside their reach, which is not a good sign.

The voters braved the Covid-19 pandemic eventually coming out in their numbers to vote despite a display of complete disinterest in the election leading up to voting day. There was a drop in the total poll, and the 4.5% rejected votes taken together must mean something. Comparatively, only 1% votes were rejected at the Presidential. But the 75% turnout (71% valid votes) is still impressive. Kudos to the Elections Commission and its support staff, and the public servants of the country who have always put their hand up in performing this monumental feat to support the democratic way of life in Sri Lanka.

The ultimate results seem to have surprised everyone, even the victors. Not that the winner was not a foregone conclusion given the disarray in the Opposition camps, yet, the margin of victory has been astounding. Nobody expected a two- third majority for the caretaker Government in a proportional representation system (PR). In fact, the PR system is to prevent such runaway majorities by one side. In 2010, the winner came close with 144 seats of the 225, six short of a two-thirds. This time they are home and dry.

Large majorities however, can be dangerous for the country – and the winners. Landslides can make the victors arrogant in power and lose focus in a make-believe world that the “mandate of the people” is permanent. In 1956 and 1970 the winners won 2/3rds and lost the next election. In 1977, the 5/6th winners were afraid of the next election in 1982 and held a referendum instead.

Covid-19 that caught the world unawares has impacted this country’s economy, as it has all countries. The future is bleak. The President and Prime Minister have already asked every conceivable quarter for debt moratoriums, ‘swaps’, ‘repos’ and what not. Negotiations are in progress with the IMF. Tightening of belts is going to be more severe as the country’s chief external revenue streams dry up. The global economy is in recession and Sri Lanka’s leaders will have to ensure there is no disastrous free fall of the economy in the process.

In this bleak environment those with influence and the ear of the leaders will try and cash their IOUs to exploit the situation to make a fast buck. If the President and Prime Minister have learnt from the past when they were defeated in 2014, they will surely know it was a combo of factors that brought about their downfall from the height of popularity they commanded in the aftermath of the defeat of the LTTE in 2009.

These ranged from crony capitalism to corruption allegations; from vanity projects to the general conduct of the ‘ruling elite’. It was such that even the very office of the Executive Presidency, and its continuation became a contentious public issue.

The ruling coalition hammered home the point that a Cohabitation Government as this country had from 2015 was a disaster to the country. They said when competing parties try to run a Government together, they pull in different directions and the country goes nowhere. The complete breakdown of the National Government of 2015-2018 was the worst possible advertisement for cohabitation between a President and Parliament, both elected by the people.

Arguably, the only Cohabitation Government that worked was in 1994 when President D.B. Wijetunge meekly surrendered to the mandate that was given to the opposing party after seemingly miscalculating the holding of a Parliamentary election before a Presidential one. The 2001- 2004 Cohabitation Government was also a disaster.

The country now has two brothers in those two exalted positions. The people might be expecting a repeat of the success they jointly had in defeating the LTTE that earned for them deservedly great credit especially in the southern provinces of the country. But the voters took away that credit in 2014 and for good reason. Today, the assignment before the brothers is different, and significantly more difficult than their earlier task.

There will be those who will try and trip them up for the sake of tripping up ‘ The Firm’. They will also be legitimately opposed by others on an issue-based basis. This would come from a Parliamentary opposition, the independent judiciary, press and civil society that ought to have no agenda than the interests of the nation.

There is the possibility of the duo tripping up each other. Public perception is divided. Some feel President Rajapaksa, the non- politician is keen to prove he is his own man. Long under the shadow of his more flamboyant elder brother, he has seen where things have gone astray under his brother’s leadership and the fallout that led them from heroes in 2010 to zeroes in 2014.

On the other hand, Premier Rajapaksa is already his own man. Ever the populist, he is a magnet to rural folk in particular. However, being in the muddied waters of politics for so long, he carries the inevitable “baggage”, the political lexicon for having so many supporters to please. It is this support that gives them the backing, but also the headaches in governance.

When President Rajapaksa said he did not want his photograph on the campaign posters of his party candidates, he was sending a message that was loud and clear. It underscored the sharp differences the two have about at least some of the winners who have entered Parliament last Wednesday. The irony that a murder convict came second on the list of winners in one district and an anti- corruption crusader lost in another speaks for itself of the complex country that the brothers have to govern.

It is good that the victor has a comfortable working majority of the House even though a two- thirds majority can lead to authoritarianism. As its spokesman has said, they have no excuses now.

For now, the new Government is entitled to enjoy the fruits of their remarkable victory. They have won the confidence of the majority of the country and they have to fulfil this trust. The task before them is onerous. Yet with hope comes expectation, and sometimes – more often than not, disappointment from a demanding and unforgiving electorate. The two chief incumbents in office know that only too well.