Climate crisis ‘may put 8bn at risk of malaria and dengue’
Reducing global heating could save millions of people from mosquito-borne diseases, study finds
More than 8 billion people could be at risk of malaria and dengue fever by 2080 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated, a new study says.
Malaria and dengue fever will spread to reach billions of people, according to new projections. Researchers predict that up to 4.7 billion more people could be threatened by the world’s two most prominent mosquito-borne diseases, compared with 197099 figures. The figures are based on projections of a population growth of about 4.5 billion over the same period, and a temperature rise of about 3.7C by 2100.
The study, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal, found that if emission levels continue to rise at current rates, the effect on global temperatures could lengthen transmission seasons by more than a month for malaria and four months for dengue over the next 50 years.
Felipe J Colón-González, assistant professor at LSHTM and one of the report’s authors, said: “This work strongly suggests that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could prevent millions of people from contracting malaria and dengue.
“The results show low-emission scenarios significantly reduce length of transmission, as well as the number of people at risk. Action to limit global temperature increases well below 2C must continue.
“But policymakers and public health officials should get ready for all scenarios, including those where emissions remain at high levels. This is important in areas that are disease-free and where the health systems are likely to be unprepared for major outbreaks.”