COP28: Walk the talk

The continuous evening thundershowers since September and the ensuing floods and landslides must surely be an eye-opener to the reality that something is amiss with weather patterns; and that this must surely be directly related to Climate Change and the much-talked-of Global Warming.

The Meteorological Department explains this phenomenon as a result of the El Nino conditions, which will continue for some time. This is the band of clouds triggering rainfall and thunderstorms that encircle the globe near the equator, especially in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Worldwide, increasing numbers of heatwaves, floods and wildfires are destroying lives and vegetation. Global temperatures hit their highest-ever levels recently.

Next week, world leaders will gather once again at COP28 (Conference of the Parties)—the United Nations Climate Change Conference—to discuss the future of the planet. The official UN document explains COP28 as a global 'stocktake' process for countries and stakeholders to see where the world stands on climate action and support, identify the gaps, and work together to chart a better course forward to accelerate climate action.

On the one hand, the human race is faced with machines taking over their work through Artificial Intelligence (AI). On the other, it is the atmosphere overheating. The fact that this is the 28th conference on the subject of the world's environment speaks for itself—that COP has become a talk shop, and few world leaders walk the talk.

Global emissions of fossil fuels such as burning coal, gas and oil that contain carbon and hydrogen used for energy have shot up the world's temperature to 2.5–2.7 Celsius, a far cry from 1.5 C, which is the ultimate target agreed upon by world leaders (the Paris Agreement) to save the planet.

This year's COP28 host is the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of the biggest oil suppliers in the world, which is increasing its oil production, not decreasing it. The UAE says it has invested billions of US dollars in renewable energy, but argues that the world needs oil, and it is, therefore, investing thrice that amount in future exploration of oil and gas.

China is the biggest industrial polluter in the world, with its burgeoning export market. The United States comes second, where ambitious targets to cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent and reach a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 are officially termed "insufficient" by CAT (the Climate Action Tracker). Collectively, the industrialised West contributes heavily to global warming. Britain recently announced it is opening new oil and gas fields with offshore drilling platforms in the North Sea, sealing its commitment to keep producing fossil fuels for decades to come. They have all gone back on their commitments to cut back on producing petrol cars, gas boilers, etc.

What about Sri Lanka? Climate Change has a cascading effect on education, food supplies and poverty because the mechanisms and safety net for the poor and vulnerable are insufficient for them to get back on their feet quickly, once hit by droughts, floods, landslides and the like.

Climate-Change impacts are projected to reduce GDP by 1.2 percent yearly until 2050. These estimates do not account for economic turmoil, social concerns, or the erosion of natural resources.

Though Sri Lanka is among the countries with the lowest amount of greenhouse gas emissions, it is doing itself no favours by allowing its forest cover to be slashed and eco-systems to be imperilled, especially due to urban planning being non-existent thanks to that root of all evils—corruption. Like many other government institutions where officials have discretionary powers, the Central Environment Authority is riddled with corruption. Recently, its chairman was in hot water on bribe-taking charges.

Sri Lanka's renewable energy thrust is also facing problems. When the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) drew up a national treaty to combat dangerous human interference with the climate system, it also called for a 'just transition', the principles of which demanded no harm be caused to the lives of humans and their livelihoods. The wind farms coming up in Mannar are exactly the antithesis of these principles, with the local community facing floods, wildlife deaths and a fall in fishing stocks as a result.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe leads a large delegation to COP28 next week. This time, the mega event also has a Sri Lanka pavilion. He is expected to address both the main conference as well as the G-77 leaders under the current chairmanship of Cuba.

The thrust of Sri Lanka's position on the global stage is to be addressed by three main topics. The first: Investing in the Tropical Belt (consisting of 134 countries and territories), i.e., the regions near the equator and between the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere and the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere. Secondly, the call for a Climate Justice Forum to adopt a non-combative approach to the existing Loss-and-Damage Fund that was a successful outcome from previous COPs following a demand by the poor countries hit by climate-induced disasters for compensation and to implement a rapid transition to renewable energy as pledged by the polluting countries but whose funds have not yet reached the table. Thirdly, the establishment of a Climate Change Research University in Sri Lanka.

It would also do well for the Government delegation to call for a deeper dialogue at COP28 on the marine environment and its correlation to Climate Change, particularly in view of Sri Lanka holding the chair of the IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association). This would include discussing oil spills, plastic pollution, illegal and unregulated fishing, burnt oil discharge by container vessels, littering, ocean mining and a host of such activities that have a direct and indirect impact on ocean biodiversity, rising sea levels and temperatures, human health and livelihood.

The two weather patterns known as El Nino ('Little Boy' in Spanish) and La Nina ('Little Girl') have opposite effects, but both, after all, are about large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to warmer or colder (than normal) seas that affect marine life and life on land, especially in the tropics around the Indo-Pacific seas.

For an island nation such as Sri Lanka, these are equally critical factors that will influence Climate Change and its consequences for the country.