Crystal ball in 2024

With elections being declared as scheduled by around September 2024, an apt song doing the rounds is the Gypsies hit ‘Chande denna epa hora thakkadiyanta!’ (meaning don’t vote for the rogues).

Interested in listening to a short clip of the song? Then click: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrb_TcVCOW8&ab_ channel=Gypsies

The song has been crafted by Piyal Perera, younger brother of the late legendary Sunil Perera, showcasing politicians and their ilk, corruption and greed. A typical Gypsies song.

The trio, gathered under the margosa tree, also referred to the song in their Thursday morning conversation. “Ara Gypsies kandayame chande gena sinduwa harima shok (That Gypsies song about elections is a super one),” said Serapina.

“Ow, eka hariyata gelapenawa ena avurudde chande hinda (Yes, it’s ideal because we have elections next year),” noted Mabel Rasthiyadu.

“Apita Sunil Pererage aduwa denenawa. Eya supiri vinodakami kenek-ne. Eya godak sindu hadanawa hitiya-nam, chande enakota (We miss Sunil Perera. He was a wonderful entertainer and would have had many songs this time with the elections coming up),” noted Kussi Amma Sera.

So another New Year dawns on Monday. When I wrote my column on Sunday January 1, 2023, I started with a “Phew what a year” considering the crisis in 2022 with fuel queues, shortages and extreme poverty.

The feeling is the same going into 2024. Though there are no queues or shortages, poverty has risen sharply affecting more than 60 per cent of the population.

According to a recent survey by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), 60.5 per cent of households have experienced a decrease in their total income as a result of the economic crisis. The survey findings state that 54.9 per cent of households in Sri Lanka are currently in debt.

It reported that over half of the households in Sri Lanka have some financial obligations or outstanding debts they are managing or repaying. This level of indebtedness could have implications for household finances, budgeting and financial stability, especially during periods of economic challenges or uncertainties, the survey reported.

It said the impact of the economic crisis on household finances, including both income and expenditure is significant. “This crisis has led to significant changes on how households manage their finances. Many households have experienced a decrease in their income due to various economic factors that have subsequently affected their spending pattern,” the survey, as reported in the media, said.

As I dwelt on these issues, there was the usual morning call from a friend, most probably wanting to discuss the future in 2024. It was Ruwanputha, the young economist.

“So what are your crystal ball predictions for 2024,” I asked him.

“Well it’s a slippery slope similar to 2023. We are confronted with rising poverty levels as incomes drop, weather patterns are said to be dry which will impact on crops in the first quarter of the year, the IMF issues and privatisation, the last named hotly objected by unions,” he said.

“On the positive side, SriLankan Airlines slated for privatisation next year is getting four new aircraft next month which would substantially improve its services which have had some serious issues this year,” I said.

“The IMF loan package is also challenging as the second review mission is mid-year but the biggest challenge in the economy is the presidential election around September, with the government under pressure to offer all kinds of sops to appease voters. This could affect the IMF programme of work which is opposed to granting subsidies or handouts,” he said.

This year (2023), the economy is likely to still contract but at much less a pace than in 2022. The Central Bank in its annual report for 2022 (released in mid-2023) said the Sri Lankan economy faced its most onerous year in its post-independence history in 2022, comprising severe economic hardship that led to both public anxiety and political upheaval.

“The impoverished conditions in the economy warranted immediate and coordinated policy initiatives by the Government and the Central Bank to preempt a further escalation of the situation. Although the corrective measures affected the vast citizenry in the near term, they were necessary to safeguard the economy and economic agents from potentially devastating consequences of unrestrained economic instability, such as hyperinflation, collapse of economic activity to a much deeper level and a complete disconnect of the country from the rest of the world, with far worse consequences to the people and businesses. The outcomes of these efforts have eventuated since late 2022,” it said.

The report said the socio-economic crisis in 2022 underlined many lessons that the country failed to grasp, despite the recurrence of such macroeconomic failures throughout its post-independence history. This economic episode reiterated the essentiality of data-driven policymaking; devastating implications of ad hoc policy experiments; crippling welfare impacts of myopic populist policies; and the cost of policy delays, disregarding evidence-based policy analysis, wellestablished economic fundamentals and expert opinions.

In my January 1, 2023 column, I wrote: “According to latest reports, more than 300,000 people have gone abroad for employment purposes. Normally it’s around 200,000 a year and these are those mainly going to West Asia. The year indeed witnessed the worst economic crisis in history. Even during the dark days of the 1970-77 administration and the then period of shortages, there was no fuel shortage. Of course, those days, people relied more on public transport and there were fewer cars around.”

I said people are literally fleeing the country with long queues at the Passport Office, with the profile of applicants being around the 21-40 years’ age segment. This is the cream of Sri Lankan talent.

The same sentiments are set to echo in 2024 with many Sri Lankans seeking greener pastures abroad, with the economy still in trouble at home.

While the presidential elections will dominate the happenings in 2024, widespread protests on a number of issues like cost of living, high taxes, stifling freedom of expression and mugging the press are likely to occur during the year, along with the demand for parliamentary elections to be held in the same year. There have also been some suggestions to hold the presidential and parliamentary elections on the same day to cut costs but is that workable?

As I mulled over these issues, Kussi Amma Sera brought in my second mug of tea, humming Piyal Perera’s latest song about politicians. At least we still have the freedom to lampoon politicians! Best wishes for 2024.