Europe is heading for perilous waters, and its leaders are dozing at the tiller
Inaction threatens the continent’s security over Trump, Ukraine, the rise of the far right and the crisis in the Middle East
Democrats fear Joe Biden is sleepwalking to disaster in a November rematch with Donald Trump. Tories level similar criticism at dozy Rishi Sunak as Labour dreams of an autumn landslide. But for a truly world-beating slumber party, EU leaders take the bedtime biscuit.
The way it’s going, 2024 could turn into a nightmare for the 27-country bloc – an all-time annus horribilis. A daunting slew of international and internal challenges is coming to a head. Is the EU ready to meet them? Definitely not.
Take the crisis in the Red Sea. Houthi militants have been attacking shipping there since the Israel war began. Citing threats to global trade and free navigation, the US and the UK struck.
The EU has an important stake in this fight. About 40% of its Asia and Middle East trade moves via Suez. But only the Netherlands provided hands-on assistance. Germany offered support – in a written statement. France, Italy and Spain ducked out. Foreign ministers have put off a decision until February 19.
This sorry saga exposes some familiar EU singularities: Ambivalence about following America’s lead, fear of getting into a war, divided counsels and, in this case, worry about siding with Israel. Snoozing at the tiller, Europe is again failing to pair its self-interest and aspirations as a global actor with timely, concrete, joined-up action.
The Gaza war has exploded another illusion ahead of this week’s pivotal EU summit. Governments believe the conflict, and regional escalation, threaten their vital interests. As Israel’s largest trading partner, they think the EU has leverage. All support a two-state solution. But when Josep Borrell, EU foreign policy chief, outlined a 10-point peace plan for Palestine last week, his VIP guest, Israel Katz, Israel’s foreign minister, ignored it. “Which are the other solutions they [the Israelis] have in mind?” Borrell fumed. “To make all the Palestinians leave? To kill them?”
Europe’s capacity for punching below its weight is damaging Ukraine, where two years on from its invasion, Russia appears to be slowly gaining the upper hand. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Moscow’s Trojan horse, continues to block a 50bn financial package for Kyiv.
The failure of some EU countries, notably France, to supply more and better arms, as US deliveries dry up, is also harming Ukraine’s chances – and consequentially, Europe’s hopes of defending its borders from future Russian aggression. That’s especially pertinent given Trump’s prospective return to the White House. Like a deer frozen in the headlights, Europe seems paralysed by the fast-approaching orange bulldozer. This time around, Trump may fulfil his threat to pull the plug on Nato. What then for collective European security?
Trump’s resurrection “would endanger European interests but Europe is not investing in mitigating the risks,” warned Ian Bond, of the Centre for European Reform. Defence, transatlantic economic relations and Trump’s disdain for the rules-based international order were looming problem areas.
“Most European leaders are still not being honest with their populations about the strategic situation in which Europe finds itself. Russia is increasingly putting its economy on a war footing,” Bond wrote.
There has been much talk in Europe in recent years about developing common defences. But French president Emmanuel Macron’s blueprints for EU “military sovereignty” have largely gathered dust. US-led Nato remains Europe’s first and last hope.
Fearful of Trump’s second coming, Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s party in the European parliament, proposes an EU-wide nuclear umbrella. “Regardless of who is elected in America, Europe must be able to stand on its own in terms of foreign policy and be able to defend itself independently,” he said.
For Judy Dempsey, of Carnegie Europe, the geopolitical dangers facing the EU in 2024 are global – and exacerbated by the dithering of its wealthiest member. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, “is giving no political or strategic leadership to a Europe that is ill-prepared for a possible rupture of the transatlantic relationship,” Dempsey wrote.
“Similarly, neither Germany nor Europe is prepared to withstand the growing influence of regimes that challenge the traditional prominence of the west” – a reference to China, a big trade partner and bigger potential threat.
Germany is also a flashpoint in the main internal political challenge confronting the EU – the rise of the far right.
New polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations suggests populist “anti-European” parties will make large gains in EU and national elections this year. Migration, broken budgets, energy and climate are other explosive common denominator issues.
Can the EU survive a dangerous, defining year? It will probably muddle through.
Europe is the meat in the sandwich being cut by hostile authoritarians around the world. If it doesn’t wake up and shape up, it’s lunch.