Big power interest in Lanka’s elections

The opening of a new session of Parliament, probably the last before the next general election, set the stage for what is in store on the political battlefield in the coming months.

The main Opposition boycotted the event which in the old days was the 'Throne Speech' by a Governor General on behalf of the Government of the day. It gave an opportunity to the Opposition to test the Parliamentary strength of the Government and in March 1960, the Dudley Senanayake Government was defeated at the vote that followed.

Today, it only gives the two sides of the House an opportunity to exchange words. It is a warm-up game for the big match to come. A few MPs who remained in the Opposition benches gave an indication that they were keeping their options open. The Northern politicians were no different from their Southern colleagues with leadership battles and infighting, some keeping away, some remaining, but the bigger buzz was the absence of the JVP leadership due to them being hosted in India this week.

Once a vehemently anti-India party, Indian hegemony was one of the five infamous lessons that were used by the JVP founders to indoctrinate youth to rise against the state in 1971. They continued this stance into their second-generation insurrection from 1987-89 following the Indo-Lanka Pact. In recent times, the party has taken a strong position opposing a multitude of proposed Indian investments in Sri Lanka.

Having lost its influence following the recent elections in the Maldives, and China having regained its clout in the atolls spread out in the Indian Ocean, India must surely have been concerned about the future of its relations with Sri Lanka if it were to come under a JVP administration. This was, therefore, no ordinary invitation.

The India side was keen on the optics of the visit, releasing tweets and press releases of the visiting delegation's meetings with senior government ministers and officials including its high-profile National Security Advisor. This was in contrast to the JVP remaining economical in what it had to say about the visit.

One takeaway that the host extracted from the visitors was that their party stood for neutrality in their foreign policy. This seemed a moral victory for India in that the JVP has long been viewed as a camp follower of the Chinese Communist Party.

Big power intervention in the internal affairs of other countries; sovereignty, self-determination, non-interference etc., were the protective armour of the Non Aligned nations (including India) at the time of Independence against former colonial powers. Now, foreseeing its turn on the global stage and its aspiring role to global power status, India clearly sees it differently, requiring a stable regional environment not only as a net security provider but also as an economic stability provider.

In Perth, Australia, the Sri Lankan President met with the Indian External Affairs Minister at an Indian-led dialogue on the Indian Ocean, soon after addressing Parliament on Wednesday. One would reasonably expect the President to have got some sort of debrief on the JVP delegation's visit to India as much as the Chinese embassy in Colombo may also get a debrief by the visitors themselves on their return.

All this is a pointer that the forthcoming elections in Sri Lanka are not only of interest to its own citizens, but there is an abiding interest in the world's capitals in its outcome as well.