Conf lict is the new normal
Looking at the crises proliferating around the world, it is clear that we are in an age of geopolitical tension that resembles the Cold War — a time of constant, continual threats to international order. But this time, the West is treating each of these threats as one-offs to be dealt with separately in the hope that normalcy will soon return. But conflict is the new normal.
Look around. The war is going badly for Ukraine, which is critically outgunned and outmanned by its much larger adversary. Its key advantage, access to Western arms and money, is in peril. The US Congress seems unwilling to pass legislation to send it more arms and money. The EU is stepping in and filling part of the gap, but Europe does not have the military industrial complex to send Ukraine the level of armaments it needs to fight Russia.
Ukraine’s army has held out against Russia’s onslaught. But as a senior European diplomat said, “Ukrainians are brave and bold, but they are not supermen.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is making sure that he can keep the war going, getting arms from North Korea and recruiting men from as far as Cuba. He continues to benefit from the fact that many of the world’s major economies — from China and India to Turkiye and the Gulf States — are trading freely with Russia.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, many believed when the Gaza war began that it would be short, and that PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s government would fall. Neither is likely.
The Israel Defense Forces are determined to completely eradicate Hamas from Gaza. That means months more of bombing, fighting, and bulldozing. The tensions and internal debates that Israel’s actions will produce in other countries will only rise.
Netanyahu is going nowhere. Most Israelis may dislike him, but they approve of his war policies. This week, in a rebuke to international calls for pursuing a twostate solution, Israel’s Knesset approved a resolution declaring that it was opposed to any unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state with 99 out of 120 votes.
One less-noticed theatre has been in the North. Israel has been striking and killing Hezbollah militants. This campaign will continue and might even accelerate. At some point, Hezbollah might respond forcefully, which could trigger an Israeli incursion into Lebanon, truly widening the war.
Then we have the Houthis, who have managed to assert themselves through a series of strikes that, according to one consulting firm, have reduced the number of container vessels through the Suez Canal by about 72% since they began in December. American efforts to organise an effective coalition to keep trade flowing through the Red Sea have failed. Its efforts to respond to Houthi attacks have not caused a cessation in strikes.
This failure is a blow to the credibility of the US’ guaranteeing the freedom of the seas, a key component of the open global economy. More threats to the maritime underpinnings of that order are on the horizon. Russia and China have both been building up the capacity to cut undersea cables, which are now an integral part of the “cloud” on which data is stored across the globe. If the US cannot deter a sub-state actor like the Houthis, what chance does it have against powers like China and Russia?
There are ways to address all these problems. But it requires a paradigm shift in the Western world. We are now in a high-security age. That means governments have to spend significantly more on defense — and spend more efficiently.