Democrats maintain advantage
WASHINGTON On the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold a doubledigit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party’s 55% to 42% advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10point edge they held just after Labor Day.
That’s a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN’s final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans’ 10point advantage just before the 2010 midterms. Democrats benefit from a massive gender gap that has persisted throughout the fall (women favor Democrats 62% to 35%, while men are about evenly divided, 49% back the Republican, while 48% support the Democrat in their district), a wide lead among political independents (53% for the Democrat to 39% for the Republican), and strong support from black and Latino voters (88% of black voters and 66% of Latino voters favor the Democrats).
The gender gap cuts across lines of race and education, with nonwhite women (79% favor Democrats) and white women with college degrees (68% back the Democrat) breaking most heavily for the Democrats, while white men (57% Republican) and particularly white men without college degrees (65% back the Republican) are most deeply behind the GOP. About 7 in 10 likely voters say that when they cast a ballot on Tuesday, they’ll be sending a message about President Donald Trump, and more often than not, the message those voters want to send is one of opposition. Overall, 42% of likely voters say their vote will be to express opposition to the president, while 28% say that it’ll be to support him. Another 28% say their vote isn’t about the president. That level of opposition is similar to the way likely voters felt just ahead of the 2006 election, when 41% said they were voting to oppose thenPresident George W. Bush. Fewer voters in that year, just 16%, said they were turning out to support the president. Trump’s approval rating in the poll stands at 39% overall, with 55% disapproving, slightly worse than in early October, when 41% approved of his performance and 52% disapproved. That is the worst preelection approval rating for any president approaching their first midterm election in polling dating back to Eisenhower. Among likely voters, a majority, 52% say they strongly disapprove of the way the president is handling his job, 35% say they strongly approve of his work as President, and just 11% of those likely to vote on Tuesday say they don’t have strong views on Trump. (CNN)