IMF revises down 2020 global economy forecast to contraction of 4.9 pct

WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday revised down its forecast for the global economy amid the mounting COVID-19 fallout, projecting a 4.9-percent contraction in 2020.

The latest projection is 1.9 percentage points below the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast released in April, indicating a grimmer economic outlook as the pandemic continues to ripple across the globe. “Compared to our April World Economic Outlook forecast, we are now projecting a deeper recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in a virtual news conference, noting that these projections imply a cumulative loss to the global economy over two years of over 12 trillion US dollars from the crisis.

“The downgrade from April reflects worse than anticipated outcomes in the first half of this year, an expectation of more persistent social distancing into the second half of this year, and damage to supply potential,” Gopinath

told reporters. Advanced economies are projected to contract 8 percent this year, 1.9 percentage points lower than the forecast in the April WEO. The U.S. economy is expected to shrink 8 percent, the Euro Area is on track to contract 10.2 percent, and the Japanese economy could decline 5.8 percent.

Emerging markets and developing economies, meanwhile, are projected to shrink by 3 percent this year, 2 percentage points below the April WEO forecast, according to the updated report.

Brazil and Mexico are projected to contract by 9.1 and 10.5 percent respectively, while India’s economy could see a contraction of 4.5 percent. China is expected to grow by 1 percent, the only major economy that could see growth this year. The latest report also showed that global growth is projected at 5.4 percent in 2021, which would leave 2021 gross domestic product some 6.5 percentage points lower than in pre-COVID-19 projections made in January 2020.

(Xinhua)