New polls show Joe Biden is winning suburbanites by a historic margin

USA - The new ABC News/ Washington Post poll is the latest to show former Vice President Joe Biden on a roll. He leads President Donald Trump 55% to 40% among registered voters. (It’s a slightly tighter 54% to 44% among likely voters). The poll comes on top of other surveys last week from NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac University giving Biden a double-digit advantage.

Biden’s advantage in the polls is most evident in the suburbs, where he is earning a historic amount of support for a Democrat. Biden is up by a 52% to 43% margin among suburban voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. View 2020 presidential election polling

Other polls in the last month show Biden doing even better among suburban voters. The latest Quinnipiac University poll has Biden ahead by a 56% to 34% margin with suburbanites. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll has Biden beating Trump 60% to 35% among suburban voters. Fox News has Biden with a similar 55% to 33% lead. Our early June CNN poll had Biden with a 14-point lead in the suburbs. In the average of all the polls, Biden’s ahead by nearly 20 points with suburban voters. This is a historic margin, if it holds.

The fact that Biden is doing so well in the suburbs shouldn’t be a surprise. The suburbs are a bellwether vote of sorts in our current political environment. That is, the suburban vote mirrors the national vote closer than the urban or rural vote. Biden’s lead in the suburbs is reflective of him doing significantly better than Hillary Clinton. Four years ago at this time, Trump was beating Clinton by a 45% to 35% margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll among suburban voters. In other words, we’re looking at nearly a 20-point improvement for Biden versus where Clinton was at this point in the 2016 campaign. A look across the final polls and post-election polls from four years ago shows anything from a small Clinton advantage (e.g. 5 points in the final Fox News poll) to a small Trump advantage (e.g. 4 points in the exit poll). If you were to go back over time, the exit poll data reveals that no Democrat has won the suburban vote by more than 5 points since at least 1972, when the first exit poll was taken in a presidential election.

( CNN )