Academia Sinica study creates novel method for calculating climate change

A recent study by Academia Sinica created a novel method for calculating elevation-dependent climate change-induced temperature shifts, allowing scientists to predict environmental impacts with greater precision.

The research was published in the journal Nature on Wednesday with open public access.

The study said myriad species are not migrating fast enough to survive in the changing climate map, even if global warming is curbed as planned, Biodiversity Research Center fellow Shen Sheng-feng (沈聖峰), who led the research, told a news conference in Taipei yesterday.

According to the researcher’s calculations, the isotherm — the boundary line of a temperature zone — is moving upward at 11.67m per year, a rate far higher than previous estimates, he said.

There is a general lack of data on the impact of climate on mountainous regions, where terrain difficulties impede weather station construction and ecological observation, he said.

Study coauthor Chen I-ching (陳一菁), associate professor of life science at National Cheng Kung University, showed in a 2011 study that isotherm shifts outpaced wildlife population’s migration, indicating isotherm calculations were wrong, Sheng said.

The research team utilized satellite data, empirical data on the velocities of species range shifts and modeling based on thermal dynamics to shed light on the relationship between isotherm changes and the vertical relocation speed of species, he said.

The study covered more than 8,600 mountain ranges across 17 regions of the world, including the Yukons in Alaska, the Mediterranean Basin, the Kodar Mountains in Russian Siberia and the Sumatra region in Indonesia, Sheng said.

The accelerated speed of warming shown in the study poses a “severe threat” to the unique species sheltered in the mountains in a troubling sign for the environment, he said.

First author Chen Wei-ping (詹偉平), a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University, said the study revealed that although Taiwan proper’s mountainous regions are warming more slowly than the global average, the isotherm is rising faster than average due to humidity.

This means climate change would have a stronger impact on Taiwan’s ecological conditions than previously thought, he said.

An Academia Sinica spokesperson said that the research blazed a new trail in climate science and also sounded a call to action for governments to jointly protect vulnerable ecosystems in mountain ranges across the world.