Not quite as confident
The referendum result may well be the deciding factor in whether the next general election slated for next year will see the Pheu Thai Party take its place in the starting line-up.
During the long weekend holidays these past weeks — the Songkran festival in the middle of last month and Coronation Day early this month — a number of Pheu Thai former MPs flew overseas to renew their allegiance to their long-time boss, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin recently was named by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as the element behind the political manoeuvring connected to the anti-government activities. It was the first time he had publicly fingered the former premier as having a hand in the political undercurrents.
Political analysts say the patronage system between local politicians, canvassers and civil servants, which had shored up support for political parties, is showing signs of weakening.
One by one, the influential factions which were the traditional foundations that maintained the strength of political parties when in government, including Pheu Thai, are switching sides and pledging their loyalty to the military regime under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
When the former MPs met Thaksin over those weekends, they came across a former leader who seemed somewhat resigned to the fact that the future of Pheu Thai, and possibly his own, in politics is not so assured. In the coming years, the NCPO is predicted to continue wielding power, even after the next general election set for the middle of next year, said a source in Pheu Thai.
The NCPO has drawn flak for attempting to prolong its hold on power by appointing 250 individuals to the Senate who will be working alongside the House of Representatives post-election.
“If Thai politics remains the way it is now, we’ll only be playing within the rules set by the NCPO. It’s pointless,” the Pheu Thai source said, quoting Thaksin.
Thaksin has confided in a close aide that he might need to play a “trump card” if necessary. That card is to boycott the next general election if the draft charter passes the referendum on Aug 7.
The source said Thaksin sees no use in contesting a poll that he feels will be held under military dominance. He specifically begrudges the appointed Senate, seen as being specifically instrumental in the extension of NCPO power.
The next batch of senators, many of whom are expected to be selected from members of the current National Legislative Assembly, will enjoy a five-year tenure, assuming the draft constitution is approved at the referendum. This means their term will outlast the next set of MPs with a four-year term.
The party source said the appointed Senate could also expand its political power in a way that helps to strengthen small and medium political parties. The draft charter is also introducing a new election method which is criticised by some experts as emasculating the big parties by allowing partylist MP seats to be distributed more evenly among the smaller parties.
The Pheu Thai source said if the draft charter is shot down at the referendum, Thaksin and the party will wait to see which of the previously-abrogated charters will be resurrected for promulgation. In such a scenario, the party will watch to see whether contents of the charter will be redesigned to retain the NCPO’s influence and power for years to come.