Can’t dislodge them easily
Whether the draft constitution is approved or not in the Aug 7 referendum, one result is clear — the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) is likely to stay on for some time yet to come, according to a column in Matichon Weekly. Let’s look at some possible scenarios: 1. The draft charter is rejected: An amendment to the provisional charter said the NCPO shall set up a constitution drafting committee within 30 days. The committee will prepare a new draft constitution within 180 days.
This means if the draft constitution fails to be approved on Aug 7, PM Prayut will have to set up a new group of drafters which will have to come up with a new draft by Feb 7, 2017.
If the new draft has to go through another referendum, the election scheduled for next year will have to be moved to 2018.
2. The draft charter is approved: The charter’s provisional clause allows the NCPO to remain in power until a new government is formed. The military regime will also enjoy the same power it has under the provisional charter.
This means the NCPO will still enjoy its sweeping power under Section 44.
The next step is for the existing CDC to stay on in power until it finishes drafting 10 organic laws.
The organic laws will be forwarded to the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) which has to finish considering them within two months. If it fails to complete the task by deadline, the approval will be automatic. The laws will be sent to the Constitution Court, independent organisations and CDC for consideration.
This means the NCPO will stay in power for another 16 months in case the draft charter is approved. In that case, the election is likely to be postponed to 2017 — about the same timeline as the scenario in which the draft is rejected.
What is noteworthy is if voters approve the extra question to have the appointed Senate elect the prime minister as well, that would mean the senators to be appointed by the NCPO will have a chance to vote to select the PM for two terms.
Under the draft charter, the Senate has a term of five years while the PM has a term of four years.
This means if both the draft charter and the extra question are approved, there is a chance Gen Prayut could stay at the helm more than 10 years, the article said.