Fears of ‘outsider PM’ may be overblown
The hoopla over the possibility the next prime minister could be an unelected outsider may be unwarranted, said the cover story of Siam Rath Weekly.
The “outsider PM” controversy erupted after the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) suggested the draft constitution be amended to allow the appointed Senate to propose the name of the PM instead of just voting to approve one as suggested by the extra question endorsed in the recent referendum, said the article entitled “The Line that Divides A Statesman from Tyrant”.
The move aggravates the concerns of politicians, most of whom agree the road to Government House via the next election is paved with legal obstacles.
For a start, the country’s 30th PM will have to receive more than half the vote in parliament, or 375 out of 750 votes from 500 MPs and 250 senators.
The mixed member proportional voting system is also seen as favouring small and medium parties. Political analysts believe the system is more likely to produce a coalition government because of the difficulty of a single political party winning a majority vote under its rules.
Many foresee parties will be scrambling to win the support of smaller parties to form a government.
If, for some reason, parties cannot get enough votes to form a majority and set up a government, the draft charter will allow MPs to join hands and ask for an exemption to the rule that says the PM must come from a list that has been proposed by parties before the poll starts.
“This clause in the draft charter already worries politicians as it’s possible a party can turn itself into a ‘nominee’ and propose prime ministerial candidates according to what the National Council for Peace Order (NCPO) desires,” the article said.
Constitution Drafting Committee chairman Meechai Ruchupan, however, dismissed concern saying the NLA’s suggestion has come too late. The CDC will amend the draft charter to allow the Senate to vote for a PM that has been proposed by MPs only.
Considering the content of the draft charter, the concern that politicians have about the outsider PM may be overblown, said the article.
“Mechanisms in the draft charter may be considered tough for parties and allow for the possibility of an unelected PM, but they also make it difficult for such a PM to work,” said the article.
The Senate, to be wholly appointed by the NCPO, may be viewed as the largest bloc of votes in the parliament and a key factor in making it possible for an outsider to become PM, but it is also barred from voting on important motions, such as finance-related bills.
“This means the Senate will not be able to vote for the annual budget, a crucial tool of a government’s administration. Without enough votes in support, the government [supposing it is headed by an outsider PM] can’t function,” the story said.
One has to keep in mind the reality that the two major parties, the Democrats and Pheu Thai, are likely to control more than 300 seats in parliament. If they work together and lobby a few other smaller parties, it will not be too difficult for them to bring down the outsider PM should they choose to.
PM Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha is a smart soldier. He must have seen through this game, otherwise, he would not have emphasised time and again that he will not become a politician or MP.
“Once the new government comes into effect, the NCPO will be deprived of its most powerful weapon, Section 44.
“This means PM Gen Prayut will become footloose. Why would he want to go into the arena and risk losing his reputation in the process?’’ the story said.
The line between a statesman and tyrant is thin, but PM Gen Prayut can obviously choose which side he will stand on without having to depend on people who seem too keen to do him a favour, the article said.
That the PM has not taken a clear stance on the question of whether he will serve as an outsider PM is meant to act as a threat to bureaucrats who would be inclined to lose interest in their role should they become aware power will change hands.
“Do not forget that if indeed a deadlock occurs and parties can’t settle on who to choose as the next PM, the draft charter allows PM Gen Prayut to stay in power until the next government is formed anyway,” the story adds.