Prayut’s PM plan far too ambitious

So the time has come for the prime minister to show his hand. Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha admitted last Friday he would be ready to serve as prime minister after the next election even if he was not paid for the job and the workload was heavier.

The concession does sound surprisingly eager, coming from someone who insisted in the past he did not want to become a politician, did not want power and would like nothing more than a peaceful retirement.

The junta leader kept his poise, however. Despite his bare-it-all confession that he wants to serve as a possibly unelected leader, the former coup leader insisted his return must be based on two conditions: that it will happen via democratic means and be dignified. This is overly ambitious. Since Gen Prayut has made it clear he will not become a politician; his disdain for the profession is obvious, even overflowing, it’s unlikely he will deign to run in an election. The only “democratic means” which the coup leader could exploit to become the next prime minister is thus an exemption in the draft charter, which incidentally he had written.

The clause allows an unelected outsider to be voted to sit in the top administrative job if political parties can’t agree to endorse a premier. The backdoor is supposed to be an emergency exit of sorts, a semi-legal way to break a leadership impasse so that we don’t need any more military coups.

That is in theory of course. In reality, we know a putsch could occur just because some top brass were angry they were passed up during a promotion. But let’s take the contingency plan at face value and see how conceited Gen Prayut’s career plan is.

In a nutshell, the junta leader needs to reinvent himself as a democratic leader. Since he does not want to put himself up for a vote in what he probably considers a prosaic popularity contest, something only lowly politicians do, he would rather attain power through backdoor means. But what dignified leader would attain a prestigious position of power through an emergency exit hidden behind the house when a grand entrance is available?

Here comes the general’s second condition: his second accession must be a respectable one as well. That’s why earlier last week he said something many people interpret as a first hint he was willing to serve as an outsider prime minister:

“If you can’t find good people [to serve as prime minister after the next election], then you can come talk with me,” Gen Prayut told reporters on Aug 17.

Again, the hint is not very subtle even though the Government House’s communications team tried to play down the statement, saying Gen Prayut had no intention to stay on in power. For most people, however, he clearly left the option open. In a way, his statement could be seen as paving the way to meet his second condition.

Gen Prayut’s re-entry will be seen as “distinguished” if it’s by invitation from other people, not his own desire. People may be able to forget the junta leader gained access to the most powerful seat through a hole reserved for emergencies only if he comes with an “honourable man who will make sacrifices for the country” ticket in hand.

Gen Prayut has always positioned himself as the country’s “saviour”. If he is to serve another term, using a short cut when an official route is available and no violent conflicts to justify an extraordinary measure, will he need to have the righteous image doubled up? But how? What will be more magnificent than the country’s saviour cloak he already used?

There have been talks about Gen Prayut following in the footsteps of Privy Council president Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, who served as unelected leader for eight years from 1980 to 1988. What people who proposed this so-called “Prem model of outsider PM” for Gen Prayut to consider have forgotten, however, is the period was not marked as democratic nor was it known as a politically dignified one.

Arguably the most notable moment in Gen Prem’s long premiership was when the former army chief told coalition parties who arrived at his doorstep to “invite” him to take the job one more time that he had had enough. Who knows what the Privy Council president had in mind when he rejected the offer for premiership. The fact remains, however, that it’s Gen Prem himself who put a stop to the outsider prime minister practice.

Now Gen Prayut seems to want it all, to revive the outsider PM model while making it democratically recognised and well endowed with gratitude from the entire nation as well. This is a tall order, even for a coup-maker.