GLOBAL SHARES FOLLOW WALL STREET UPWARD
Recap: Wall Street’s record highs spurred other stock markets globally early last week. President Donald Trump’s comment that his administration would soon unveil a “phenomenal “tax policy spurred the rally in stocks, the dollar and emerging-market assets. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s upbeat assessment of the US outlook and hints at a March interestrate increase also bolstered investor risk sentiment.
However, most Asian stock markets sank as investors took profits following a healthy run-up. The Thai market was rangebound as expensive share prices following the recent rally capped gains while the coming dividend season prevented prices from falling sharply.
The SET index moved in a narrow range of 1,560.67 and 1,587.66 points and closed at 1,577.84, down 0.5% from the previous week, in brisk turnover averaging 53.8 billion baht a day. Institutional investors were net sellers of 2.2 billion baht, foreign investors sold 1.01 billion and brokers sold 439.3 million. Retail investors were net buyers of 3.65 billion baht.
Big movers: Eastern Technical Engineering (ETE) and SiamEast Solutions (SE) made their trading debuts on the MAI last week. ETE surged 36.9% above its IPO price at 4.20 baht and closed at 5.90 baht on Friday. SE jumped 70.6% from 2.45 baht on its debut and finished the first week with a 57.6% rise at 3.86 baht.
Top gainer AMANAH rose 41.4% to 1.98 baht, while top loser AMANAH dipped 10.4% to 40.75 baht. U led in volume, steady at 0.03 baht. Leading in turnover were AOT, off 1.2% to 40 baht; PTT, flat at 396 baht; and ADVANC, adding 1.5% to 171.50 baht.
Newsmakers: Fed chief Janet Yellen made it clear that interest rate increases are coming, and could happen at any time. Delaying a move, she said, could leave the Fed behind the curve and eventually force it to lift rates quickly, which cause a recession.
The case for higher US rates was bolstered by stronger retail sales and inflation. Consumer prices rose 2.5% in January from a year earlier, the highest since March 2012, while retail sales increased 0.4% last month.
Optimism about the euro zone economy took a hit as data showed lower-than-expected growth, possibly caused by weaker global trade as protectionist calls grow louder. The GDP of the 19 countries sharing the euro grew 0.4% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter of 2016, down from an earlier estimate of 0.5%.
Malaysia’s economy grew faster in the fourth quarter than economists estimated as stronger household spending helped counter falling government expenditure. GDP rose 4.5% from a year earlier, after climbing 4.3% in the previous three months. Full-year growth was 4.2%, down from 5% in 2015.
Airports of Thailand has agreed with the Treasury Department that revenue sharing is still the best approach to rental fees for Suvarnabhumi Airport since it does not create any cost burden on airport users.
It was responding to reports that the department was considering changing the land rental calculation at Suvarnabhumi to one based on AoT’s return on assets. This would lift rental fees to 3.5 billion baht a year from the current 1.5 billion, based on profit-sharing from land the airport had set aside for commercial purposes.
Advertising spending fell nearly 2% year-on-year to 8.07 billion baht in January, says Nielsen Thailand. But the drop in January was an improvement on the 11.7% contraction for all of last year, which was attributed to the economic slowdown, weak consumption and the national mourning period.
The Thai Retailers Association (TRA) expects the retail sector to grow in a range of 3% to 3.2% this year as the economy improves.
Plans for the Dawei special economic zone have inched ahead after the Myanmar government agreed to borrow 4.5 billion baht from Thailand to finance the construction of a 132-kilometre road from the proposed Dawei deep-sea port to Ban Phu Nam Ron in Kanchanaburi.
PTT Plc, the state majority-owned energy conglomerate and the country’s biggest company, has revised up its five-year capital spending plan by 78% to 1.6 trillion baht as global oil prices rise. The new figure is well above the 900 billion baht in capital expenditure for 2017-21 announced last February, when PTT said global oil prices would likely remain below US$35 a barrel. In recent years, the group has focused on cost-cutting as a priority.
PTT Exploration and Production Plc (PTTEP) says it is accelerating its exploration and production plan for the Montara offshore block in Australia to capitalise on rising oil prices.
PTT Global Chemical Plc (PTTGC) has acquired some or all of parent PTT’s shares in six subsidiaries worth 26.3 billion baht. The move is aimed at bringing all petrochemical businesses in the group, upstream and downstream, under one umbrella to improve flexibility and efficiency. The company is forecasting 25% growth in its revenue to 500 billion baht this year.
Total Access Communication (DTAC) plans to earmark between 17 billion and 20 billion baht this year for network expansion, especially for 4G capacity to accommodate the surge in mobile data demand.
Group Lease Plc (GL), a digital finance company, aims to double net profit this year to 2 billion baht. It said earnings would get a boost from a mix of organic growth and mergers and acquisitions.
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Plc is on track to complete power purchase agreements (PPA) of 7,500 megawatts this year.
Delta Electronics Thailand says it will focus on Asean, India and Australia as markets for high-potential products. The new products will include electronics for electric vehicles (EVs), electronic parts for power plants, and components for industrial automation.
Coming up this week: The NESDB will release official fourth-quarter 2016 GDP figures today. Economists estimate expansion slowed from the previous quarter’s 3.2% year-on-year growth, but most see full-year growth meeting the Bank of Thailand’s 3.2% forecast.
The Markit flash euro zone composite PMI and US composite PMI will be released tomorrow.
Minutes of the Feb 1 Fed meeting will be available on Wednesday.
Stocks to watch: Tisco Securities has buy recommendations on TWPC and NYT for attractive dividends, and JWD and TPIPL for improving earnings. Thanachart Securities recommends dividend plays including KKP and KTB, and PTTGC on solid earnings that are expected to continue in the first three months of this year.
Technical view: Tisco Securities tips support at 1,570 and resistance at 1,590 to 1,595 points. Thanachart Securities pegs immediate support at 1,576 followed by 1,560, with resistance at 1,580 and then 1,588.