Ecuador votes as the Latin left lags

Fragile leaders preside over a continent left behind by a generation of icons

For most of Luis Garcia’s adult life, a single name dominated the politics of this tiny Andean country: Rafael Correa, the leftist leader of Ecuador’s citizens’ revolution.

But when Mr Garcia went to the polls on Sunday, Mr Correa was not on the ballot. Unsatisfied with the options that remained, Mr Garcia, a 33-year-old musician who first voted for Mr Correa in 2006, chose to simply scribble over his ballot, rendering it invalid. “I don’t feel represented now,” he said. That feeling of malaise among the left has been spreading throughout Latin America as, one by one, a generation of iconic leaders has departed the stage, brought down by death, elections, impeachment or, in Mr Correa’s case, term limits.

They were known by many names, including the New Left, and ruled the length of the continent with big promises and bigger personalities.

Picking up the mantle of the revolutions for which the region became famous in the 1960s and 1970s, these leaders expanded education, increased subsidies for the poor and built roads, highways and hospitals. But they often ran roughshod over those who tried to check their power, from judges to international lenders.

And now, nearly all are gone. Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s fiery leader, died of cancer in 2013, leaving behind a far less popular successor, Nicolas Maduro.

The country spiralled into economic collapse as oil prices fell and the country elected the opposition to its National Assembly in 2015. Mr Maduro dug in, tightening his grip with increasing repression.

In Argentina in 2015, voters elected a free-market businessman to replace a populist, Cristina Kirchner, whose programmes were popular with the poor and working class.

The following year in Brazil, leftist Dilma Rousseff was ousted through impeachment. Her Workers’ Party faces numerous corruption allegations, while Ms Kirchner is defending herself against an indictment on financial charges.

Then, November brought the death of the standard-bearer of the region’s left: Fidel Castro of Cuba.

“These are not isolated events; it is a great reversal,” said Gabriela Rivadeneira, president of Ecuador’s National Assembly, controlled by Mr Correa’s Alianza Pais party, which for years rubber-stamped his reforms with few questions asked. “We are now the place that the region is looking at for what comes next.”

But whether Ecuador’s leftist agenda will continue when Mr Correa leaves office is unclear. There is the question of oil revenue, for one.

As in Argentina, Venezuela and Brazil, the social programmes in Ecuador that lifted millions out of poverty were underwritten by a commodities boom that sputtered out years ago. Government revenue, around US$25 billion a year when oil prices spiked, has shrunk to less than half that, $11 billion, mainly because of the declining price of oil. That has left the country heavily indebted to China. Ecuador’s economy ground to a halt last year after growing, on average, 4% or more from 2006-14.

“The model has reached its end because the money has run out,” said Cesar Robalino, a conservative banker at the Pichincha College of Economists in Quito.

Mr Robalino said Ecuador’s next president, regardless of political affiliation, would need to take a tougher line on spending, reduce the number of government workers and cut subsidies like the ones used to reduce gas prices for all Ecuadoreans. That is the stance championed by Guillermo Lasso, a wealthy banker who finished second in the last election, in 2013. Mr Lasso is promising to roll back public spending while eliminating more than a dozen taxes, which would mean the loss of billions of dollars from state coffers.

“What a government should do is facilitate entrepreneurship,” Mr Lasso said during the campaign, adding that he thought Mr Correa generated too much employment through public-sector jobs.

Lenin Moreno, the leading left-wing candidate, has promised to do more with less, borrowing when necessary. He said that despite the collapse of oil prices, Mr Correa had avoided cutting social programmes and gas subsidies used by the poor. Mr Moreno said he would continue that policy if the left won.

With about 40% of the results in on Sunday night, Mr Moreno, 63, a former deputy of Mr Correa, was leading with 38%, not enough to avoid a second round in April. Analysts said that if the numbers held, they would create an opening for Mr Lasso, who was in second place, to unite his and the remaining opposition votes and potentially capture the presidency.

If Mr Moreno wins, he will face the challenge of setting himself apart from his predecessor and his legacy. Mr Correa has said he will move to Belgium after his term ends, but some argue that if the left remains in power, Mr Correa will try to influence politics from behind the scenes.

“‘I command, I direct’, is how he thinks,” said Jorge León, a political scientist at the Central University of Ecuador.