GDP growth slowed in Q4

Thailand’s economic growth slowed to a one-year low in the fourth quarter of 2016, bringing the full-year reading to 3.2% compared with 2.9% in 2015.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) reported yesterday GDP grew by 3% year-on-year in the October-December period on weak private investment and easing consumption.

Seasonally adjusted sequential growth was 0.4% from the previous quarter.

Porametee Vimolsiri, the NESDB secretary-general, said the key growth contributors for the quarter were recovering exports because of an improving world economy, accelerated government expenditures that helped offset weak domestic consumption, and tourism, which was hard hit by the government’s clampdown on zero-dollar tours.

For the whole of 2016, private consumption, public and private investment expanded by 3.1%, 9.9%, and 0.4% respectively. Export value saw zero growth, with the inflation rate rising marginally by 0.2% from a year before and the current account registering a surplus of 11.4% to the GDP.

The NESDB maintained its economic growth forecast from November at 3-4% growth for this year, an average of 3.5%.

The growth prospects are supported by an expansion of the export sector, it said, which will help manufacturing production and private investment recover; an acceleration of agricultural production and farm income, which will support the expansion of household consumption; quicker public investment; and a tourism boom.

The NESDB projects the value of goods exports will grow by 2.9% this year, with private consumption and total investment rising by 2.8% and 5.3%, respectively. Headline inflation will range from 1.2-2.2% and the current account will add a surplus of 9.4% to GDP.

Government investment is projected to grow by 14.4% this year, considered relatively high, up from 11.2% in the previous projection, mainly driven by hefty investment of state agencies at 546 billion baht and state enterprises at 580 billion.