Vote watched across the continent with a finger in the wind

Outcome is seen as a barometer for upcoming elections in Europe, but is the far right really gaining ground?

Elections in the Netherlands yesterday were being watched especially closely across Europe and beyond as a key gauge of whether formerly strong barriers to the far right still stand on a Continent with painful memories of fascism, but also with a growing number of aspiring nationalist leaders.

The Dutch vote is the first of several critical European elections this year, followed by those in France, Germany and possibly Italy. A common thread in the campaigns has been attacks on the European Union for diluting sovereignty, opening borders to migrants and leaving nations vulnerable to terrorism.

“These are the quarterfinals in trying to prevent the wrong sort of populism from winning,” Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister and leader of the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, said of the Dutch election.

“The half finals are in France in April and May and in September in Germany, we have the finals.”

Almost everywhere populist parties have risen with nationalist calls to stem immigration to secure and preserve local cultures. The question now is whether the populists will maintain their momentum or be blunted by a newfound hesitancy among voters.

Even as support for centrist parties craters nearly everywhere, some analysts see new hints of wariness of the protest and anti-elite votes that aided the rise of recent populist politicians, given the uncertainty and conflict ushered in by the first weeks of the Donald Trump administration and the British vote last year to exit the European Union.

Hajo Funke, a political scientist at the Free University in Berlin, said he had detected early signs in the past several weeks of a backlash against populism.

In Germany, for example, the far-right Alternative for Germany party has slipped in the polls. Mr Funke said he thought voters in Europe were looking at Brexit and the Trump presidency not as points of inspiration, but rather with deep concern.

“There is no Trump effect,” he said. “Nothing happened.” On the current moment for populist parties, he said: “I see stagnation, or decline.”

In the Netherlands, Mr Funke noted, Geert Wilders, one of the most stridently anti-Muslim politicians in Europe, has struggled to improve his standing in recent weeks after climbing quickly in the polls.

“There is a danger that it can go out of control, as far as the voting for Wilders,” he said, “but I doubt that will be the case.”

Even if populists such as Mr Wilders do not prevail, other analysts said, their high profiles and often inflammatory presence had moved much of the political debate to the far right’s turf. The battle in many ways is already won.

“Since the entrance of Geert Wilders into the political arena, he hasn’t had any office but he has exerted influence,” said Bert Bakker, a communications professor at the University of Amsterdam.

Discussions in the Netherlands now often centre on restrictions on immigrants, identity politics and nationalism.

Professors, pollsters and others who closely watch elections emphasise that, at least in the Netherlands, the far right will not win or control the government — not least because the other right-leaning parties have promised publicly not to work with Mr Wilders in a coalition.

That has not stopped them from adopting somewhat milder versions of the far right’s positions on many issues. The result is that the far right’s views have dominated the debate, crowding out other views and issues.

“Even if these parties are not actually winning or part of the government, everything is moving to a more anti-immigration stance, more pro-nationalist, to try to win voters who are the losers in globalisation,” said Jasper Muis, a professor of sociology at the Free University of Amsterdam, who studies populism.

“Immigration and asylum seekers become the focus on the one hand and values and norms on the others,” he said, “but not much is said about economic development or employment and that’s a part of the success story of the populist right: that they’ve been able to make it difficult to talk about other subjects.”

In the most optimistic outlooks, Mr Wilders, who heads the Freedom Party, will get about 15% of the vote. Even if his votes were combined with those of other far-right and anti-establishment parties, the combined number of likely seats in the 150-seat parliament would not exceed about 30, or 20% of the parliament.