A BEGINNER’S GUIDE
The small lowlands country of the Netherlands held a general election yesterday (overnight, Thai time), the first in a series of national polls that could reshape Europe’s political landscape.
Away from the tourist delights of the tulips, windmills and clogs, here is a beginner’s guide to the Dutch elections:
WHAT IS AT STAKE?
Amid the rise of populist and far-right parties, the Dutch were the first to cast ballots ahead of presidential votes in France in April and May, and legislative polls in Germany in September.
After the surprise Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, far-right Dutch MP Geert Wilders was hoping for his best result to date.
WHO IS RUNNING?
The vote essentially comes down to a race between Mr Wilders and his Freedom Party (PVV) and outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his Liberals (VVD).
But there were 28 parties — a post World War II record — competing for the 150 seats in the Dutch lower house of parliament. A total of 76 seats are needed for a majority.
Thanks to a complex system of proportional representation, even small parties can get seats, enabling them to play an important role in shaping the make-up and viability of the next government.
Mr Wilders had slipped after topping the polls for weeks, but smaller parties such as the green GroenLinks had also been wooing voters away from some of the country’s long-established parties.
THE MAIN CAMPAIGN THEMES
In recent days, the elections have been overshadowed by a diplomatic row with Turkey which has thrust issues of integration and immigration back up the agenda.
Mr Wilders’ anti-Islam and antiimmigration platform was boosted late last year by Europe’s worst refugee crisis since the 1940s and a slew of attacks by Islamic jihadists.
His one-page party manifesto vowed to close the borders to Muslim immigrants, close mosques and ban the sale of the Koran.
In an overt bid to win over some of his supporters, other parties increasingly insisted on bolstering what they call “Dutch values”.
Earlier this year, Mr Rutte told citizens with immigrant backgrounds to “act normally” and adapt to Dutch norms or “leave”.
But for many Dutch the most important questions are the economy, jobs, pensions and caring for a greying population.
HOW DO ELECTIONS WORK THERE?
The Dutch lower house says on its website that “no party has ever received more than 50% of the votes”.
“All governments since World War II have been coalition governments, supported by two or more parties to form a majority.”
Once the official results are announced next Tuesday by the elections commission, the new parliament will be installed next Thursday.
A point person, known as an “informateur”, investigates which parties could form a coalition, and presides over negotiations between the party leaders to draw up a programme of policies.
These discussions can take weeks or even months. Dutch media has reported it takes on average three months for a new government to take office.
Once a programme has been set out, a person known as a “formateur” begins drawing up the possible new cabinet. The reward for this arduous task is often the top job — becoming prime minister.
WHO COULD JOIN THE NEW COALITION?
Even though Mr Wilders had been leading the polls for months, he had dropped back to second place behind Mr Rutte.
Most party leaders have vowed not to work with him.
So, even if the PVV emerge as the largest party, it would likely be excluded from government.
Analysts say Mr Rutte’s VVD could join up with the Christian Democrats (CDA) and the progressive D66 seeking to reach the magic 76 needed for a majority.
But here GroenLinks or even some of the smaller parties may find themselves landed with the weighty role of kingmaker.
Parliamentary seats are attributed according to a complicated formula based on the number of votes cast divided by the 150 available parliamentary seats, which determines that year’s electoral quota.