ROBOT TAKEOVER
Automation threatens job market
‘The future of work must be inspired by considerations of humanity, social justice and peace. If it is not, we are going to a dark place, we are going to a dangerous place.” So said International Labour Organization (ILO) director-general Guy Ryder after a two-day symposium in Switzerland last week.
With a theme of “The Future of Work We Want”, the Geneva symposium featured outstanding keynote speakers and panellists from various industries, academics, economists and representatives of governments and their social partners.
Apart from the economic recession that remains one of the biggest threats to job security among people around the world, many factors might transform our work entirely. Some jobs might be taken over by artificial intelligence, while the future workplace could mainly exist online.
ROBOTS RULE THE WORLD
“Why is it important today to talk about the future of work? It’s not because of the recessions that will create fewer jobs for people in the future. The fear of automation will hugely reduce the number of jobs available and contribute to the stability of work for humans,” said Lord Robert Skidelsky from the University of Warwick in England.
“You can’t read a newspaper today without reading a story of robots taking over human work.”
Ever since the 19th century, people have feared machines will take over human jobs, creating permanent and increasing technological unemployment. It’s not happened yet. Technology is creating more jobs, new products and the demand for new products.
Digital technology is invading the world of work. It’s not just physical work that has been lost but also cognitive work is no longer considered to be exclusive to human beings.
Technological changes are inevitably dynamic processes that involve both job destruction and creation and transforming jobs, particularly in how work is organised. This has critical implications for workers, employers and their families. The extent and speed of technological changes have always been subject to economic and social debates, typically with diverging views between optimists and pessimists. It’s not going to be a race between machines and humans — a race that humans would probably lose anyway. A race is meant to end at some point but this race can go on forever. Unless we manage to do something very drastic, many people will find their jobs taken over by automation. An academic says that 47% of American jobs can already be automated.
“We can’t leave it all to the market. We can’t stop innovation but we can manage it,” said Skidelsky.
YOUTH IN THAILAND 4.0
Social and economic inequalities persist, including on gender, meaning that young farmers, university students or people born in poor families will experience the future of work differently.
Yet the big picture in Thailand is encouraging. At 3.4%, youth unemployment is among the lowest in the region; young people have more opportunities than they ever had to prosper with fulfilling careers; and the country is fully embracing the future with a new economic model called “Thailand 4.0”, which is geared towards a transition to the fourth industrial revolution, emphasising technological advances and high-level services.
“While there will be new opportunities in growing sectors and in new industries, there will also be more temporary and less full-time work. Some jobs will see their shares decrease, while others will ultimately disappear,” said Matthieu Cognac, a youth employment specialist at the ILO.
For those less skilled, options for steady work in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors could become more limited, forcing more people to take up work in the informal sector. Certain jobs will require stronger support and attention, starting with technical and manual trades taught in vocational training centres as well as agriculture-based activities including cooperative
management, agribusiness and agritourism, which are still not widely taught.
“This tells us that both the future of work and of education must evolve on parallel paths,” Cognac said.
“Education systems will need to be more attentive to these changes in the labour market. They will need to become more flexible, more open to change, more open to creativity and innovation, and also more robust in English language teaching, which is key to competitiveness in the region.
“The education system will also need to encourage more young students to engage in internships or apprenticeships so that they can gain direct work experience while studying.”
The future of work is promising but it calls for greater care than ever. For instance, technology-driven jobs from the socalled “platform economy” that are widely perceived as a major source of employment growth offer incredible opportunities but also present risks.
As young people are increasingly able to work via their tablets and computers, is their protection as workers formally recognised? The digitalisation of the economy imposes a new relationship between workers and employers.
It is at risk of becoming more fragile unless these new technology-driven jobs offer social protection, guarantee minimum wages and promote rights at work.
MEASURING SUCCESS
There are different ways of defining success, starting with actually landing a decent job. Cognac said it is not an easy task and more than 33 million young people are unemployed in the Asia-Pacific region. For many, the only option is to work part time or in temporary positions until they can hopefully find that “perfect” job, which matches their qualifications, experience and aspirations.
Income is a very important consideration, of course, but it is not the only one. Young people care for their communities, for their society and for their planet. They want to be heard and they have ideas that, if put in motion, can make a difference and address the three foundations of sustainable development — economic, social and environmental.
A recent survey found that more than 80% of millennials actually want to make the world a better place. This explains why, in Thailand and globally, the social and solidarity economy has been growing at a fast pace in the past 15 years through mutual associations, cooperatives or other social enterprises.
“Young people represent a significant share of the global labour force and, as populations age, the importance of helping them to set off on a path of productive employment becomes increasingly important. We must include them, listen to them and learn from them. They have expectations in terms of their career progression, but they also know that we need them to transition to the fourth industrial revolution,” Cognac said.
In Thailand, the government initiative to capitalise on “Industry 4.0” is commendable and will benefit from young people’s creativity, energy and capacity to innovate in new sectors — among them robotics, digital work, aviation and logistics, biofuels and biochemicals — and in sectors that can be pushed further, such as automotive, electronics, medical tourism, food, agriculture and biotechnology.
MORE THAN ONE JOB
We need to come to terms with the fact that the world of work is changing rapidly. Whereas people used to keep the same job for most of their careers, today they tend to change jobs and even industries repeatedly. They learn new skills and transfer to new trades, not just during their youth but throughout their lives.
“What is more interesting perhaps is that we are not just saying that people will have three or four different jobs in the course of their careers. Today, with the ongoing digitalisation process, someone can potentially have three or four different jobs on the same day,” Cognac said.
For example, someone may wake up in the morning and rent their car for a profit, then check in tenants to a room in their apartment, then prepare lunch for office workers in their neighbourhood, and in the afternoon teach maths online to primary school pupils — all four jobs being conducted at the click of a mouse. This does not have to be a negative trend. We should embrace the future of work with the understanding that positive change will happen, but only if we remain in control and look into ways to protect young workers in the “gig” economy. We can make the future of work a better one because it is everyone’s responsibility to make sure that workers’ rights are respected and that economies prosper.
In the absence of available paid jobs, many young people will have no other choice than to create their own. The challenge with this is twofold. First, many young people do not aspire to become entrepreneurs; and second, they are not prepared. The worst-case scenario is often, unfortunately, also the most common scenario. When they are forced to start a business out of pure financial necessity, young people increase their chances of failure and incur a high risk of ending up in informality and precariousness — often characterised as “working poverty”.
It is therefore tremendously important to expose young people to the notion of entrepreneurship and self-employment from a young age. This involves introducing the concept of entrepreneurship at school through their curriculums, making them conversant with basic business and accounting concepts such as “gross margin” or “net profit”.
Meanwhile, young entrepreneurs need to rely on “enabling environments”, meaning that they can count on easier access to finance, help to register a business or guidance to access skills training. The Thai government is moving forward with supporting SMEs in the digital sphere, supporting start-ups with reduced corporate taxes and more investment in research and development.
FUTURE OF WORK IN THAILAND
Cognac expressed his concern about the future of work among youths in Thailand and said education needs to be relevant and in line with what the labour market demands.
“Statistics show that whereas only 12.8% of the labour force in Thailand has a tertiary degree, 31% of all those unemployed also have a tertiary degree. In other words, in some instances the more educated you are, the more prone you are to become unemployed, which is counterintuitive. We should take a closer look at the relevance of certain tertiary degrees in light of possible adjustments,” he said.
“We should help prepare young people in their transitions from school to work, including with work exposure measures like internships or apprenticeship programmes, because they help them land decent jobs much faster.
“This can be done by enticing closer links between industry and educational institutions, including at local level. It also entails introducing the concept of entrepreneurship at a time when young people have not yet decided what they will do with their careers.”
Cognac said it would be important to instil a stronger inter-generational dialogue, not only because they have much to learn from one another but also because the reality in Thailand and in much of Asia is that of a quickly ageing society.
“This makes it indispensable to find solutions for both new entrants to the labour market and also those with a lifetime of experience,” he said.
“This starts at the dinner table when our children ask what we do at work, and it continues with programmes including mentorship and apprenticeships, which are mutually beneficial to both the young and the greying generation.”