LOSERS

The memory hole

Two memorable events got us here to Sunday, the irony being that everyone was supposed to forget. Saturday was the 85th anniversary of the end of absolute monarchy. The junta doesn’t want anyone to remember, so it does all the remembering itself. Meetings to commemorate ... no, even to discuss that supremely important development of 1932 were, well, discouraged, if you catch the drift. Police were reminded by the military to make sure no smartaleck tried to walk out in the Royal Plaza, where there used to be a plaque that did commemorate the historical turn of the nation. Less diachronic, more current was the six-month anniversary last Thursday of Pai Dao Din, the Khon Kaen young man rapidly becoming Thailand’s Joshua Wong. To rub it in, army and police raided his home without a warrant or, apparently, even a purpose beyond, “We are junta, we are strong”.

Economy

The Bank of Thailand reckons the economy will grow by 3.4% to 3.6% this year, and Citi folks from Citigroup figure GDP expansion of between 3.4% and 3.6%. But the general prime minister announced to Thailand’s Big Strategic Move seminar the economy will grow by exactly 3.5%, just you wait and see. Not everything is rosy. The baht is up 6% this year, and no one seems able to stop it. Exporters are coping — other currencies also are up against a weakening US dollar — but it is worrying that the baht is rising faster, because the country’s stocks and bonds are still seen as good investment. And chairman Chen Namchaisiri of the Federation of Thai Industries revealed that the FTI index fell for the second month in a row. It’s a general indicator of confidence. Which isn’t high. Thai Big Business is investing billions, but all of it overseas. Outgoing investment in the past 16 months is US$15.9 billion, or more than half a trillion baht in real money; total incoming business investment was $1.6 billion.

Drug traffickers

The very day that the accused mastermind of north-to-south drug routes went on trial, north-to-south drug trafficking was still under way. “Mr X” as they still call rich Lao car buff Xaysana Keopimpha, told the court that the narcs and snitches haven’t got a clue. He has nothing to do with drugs, and is going to fight this trial right to the end so he will be acquitted. Good luck with that. Truth is, though, that arresting Mr X and busting his alleged money launderers has seemed to have no effect at all on the drug scene. Agents made a series of raids and traffic stops up and down the notorious Chiang Rai-Chumphon smuggling corridor. Last week alone the haul was 20kg of heroin, 30kg of ya ice and yet another million ya ba tablets, all on the way to the deep South and at least some bound for Malaysia and onward parts.

Politics

Events now are occurring quickly as the junta’s appointed National Legislative Assembly passes the laws that will keep the military in control no matter who might be elected. (And by the way, the 2nd Army commander says the general prime minister is universally loved in the Northeast.) The key document is named the National Strategy Bill because “Perpetual Military Rule Bill” was considered too blatant. It’s pretty ingenious, requiring future governments to adopt current reforms dictated ... whoops, bad choice of words, make it “imposed” by the military. The law forces governments of the future to pay tribute and obey the current regime for 20 years minimum, even if Gen Prayut doesn’t become the next prime minister.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha

The national aerobic instructor actually interrupted himself at one point to blurt out, “I double-dog dare you to say that to my face!” Okay, “double-dog” is an exaggeration but for reasons unexplained the PM’s choler suddenly rested on all those Thai exiles criticising his rule. He has problems at home. The first 1,000 days were pretty easy, but as the junta celebrates its 1,130th day in power, it’s not just those smart-alecks abroad. Cross-country pushback came from engineers and academics upset with Chinese getting the good jobs, and the public, upset with the whole railway plan. There is a lot of opposition to his healthcare plans, so his men kicked the protesters to the kerb. His Section 44 signature to allow petroleum projects on Sor Por Kor agricultural land did not pass the public’s “HUH?” test, and the attempt to put “order on the shoreline” ahead of tradition like the Panyi pole villages was savagely critiqued.

Packing for Washington

Joint army-police teams dutifully trooped through Pantip and MBK in Bangkok, Rong Klua in Sa Kaeo and a few other place where you could and soon can again buy knock-off clothes,