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Democrat Party secretary-general Juti is willing to give those in power ‘a little more time’ Major parties start making noise again about the NCPO lifting ban on political activities Who among the generals holding cabinet posts will get the chop?
Popularity of regime wanes
Judging from politicians’ whining, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s announcement that a general election will take place in November next year is not good enough; it must do a great deal more to get the country’s sluggish economy on the move and improve the much-touted welfare-card scheme.
However, Democrat Party secretary-general Juti Krairiksh is willing to lie low for a little while to let the Prayut administration concentrate on getting its job done, according to party sources.
Mr Juti, who is considered the Democrat Party’s No.2 player, is reportedly concerned about the government which has somehow underperformed even though it faces zero political pressure.
Unlike an elected government which is threatened by a no-confidence debate and street protests, the Prayut government has the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) on its side and is safe from mass demonstrations. Even so, it hasn’t delivered on its promises.
The government’s latest subsidy programme, the state welfare scheme for the poor, should have been a big hit for the regime. Instead it has been met with disappointment.
Under the pro-poor scheme, pre-registered low-income earners are given welfare cards pre-loaded with 200 or 300 baht a month to buy low-priced consumer products at Thong Fah Pracharat and other designated shops. The financial subsidy includes fares for public buses and trains.
While critics have questioned the scheme’s sustainability as a means to reduce poverty, the Democrat heavyweight is more concerned about limitations that may hinder its effectiveness.
According to the party sources, Mr Juti believes the regime has unnecessarily complicated the scheme by imposing numerous conditions, particularly that the cards can be used at shops with card readers only.
In his opinion, the government can easily boost the local economy if it allows registered low-income earners to spend the money “freely”. Moreover, he believes the scheme is vulnerable to political exploitation.
“Some political parties can just win votes easily by giving the cardholders 1,000 baht when they become the government. And they can do it,” he was quoted as saying.
Mr Juti is also critical of energy policy and believes the regime can do better to support solar power development by allowing the residential owners of solar rooftop panels to sell the power generated by their solar panels to state utilities.
“The generals did take notes of our suggestions. We [politicians] can take a longer break but on the condition that the regime must deliver on its promises [to improve the economy],” he was quoted as saying.
However, political observers believe that Mr Juti’s offer, despite its good intentions, is farfetched.
The regime cannot afford to put off the elections because its popularity is waning while the people’s well-being remains largely unchanged, according to the observers.
The Prayut government has been in power for three and a half years, long enough for the people to judge its performance and for the government to assess itself.
As the calls for the government to lift the political ban grow louder, the public may anticipate that the regime will relax the ban by allowing political parties to hold meetings before it decides to end all the restrictions and return the country to political normality.
Stretching out the roadmap?
The past few weeks of the nation’s preoccupation with the royal cremation have left no room or place for talk of political activities. But now, noise from politicians is beginning to be heard once again.
Politicians from the two biggest parties, the Democrats and Pheu Thai, wasted no time reminding the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to make good on its promise to free them from the ban on political activities, which they insist has shackled them since the military coup of May 2014.
In fact, they first made their calls for the ban to be lifted right after the organic law on political parties was passed and royally endorsed some time before the royal cremation period.
Many politicians seized on the chance to point to the justification for pressing for the ban to be removed. They argued the organic law comes with many strings attached and the strings that bind them include a set of deadlines which political parties must meet, such as a review of their party membership databases needed for organising the primaries — a system made mandatory by the present charter in which party members pick potential MP candidates to represent them.
The politicians argued time was passing them by and as long as the activities ban remains in place, they could not lift a finger to even begin the first step of organising a party meeting and passing a resolution to review databases.
However, the politicians were dealt a huge setback in recent days when Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha declared the government would not rescind the ban on political activities “until calm and order are restored” although he stopped short of elaborating what constitutes calm and order.
The premier, nonetheless, made it clear he was not in the business of crushing hopes so he said the ban would eventually be lifted to allow parties to resume activities in compliance with the constitution and electionrelated laws.
Any cause for optimism, however, was shattered barely 24 hours later when National Legislative Assembly member Somchai Sawaengkarn delivered the bad news. It looks like the ban will not be rescinded anytime soon as Mr Somchai gave a credible prediction for it being lifted in February or March next year after two organic bills on elections of MPs and senators come into force.
Immediately, some politicians warned of the “small roadmaps” disrupting the “major roadmap”. The small roadmaps in question were a reference to the time frame for wrapping up the four organic laws essential for holding a general election. They pertain to the Election Commission (EC), political parties, the election of MPs as well as the election of senators. So far, only the organic laws on the EC and the political parties have been enacted.
The major roadmap, on the other hand, is understood commonly as the general time frame that governs other aspects of transitioning the powers of the current government to an elected one, according to a political expert.
The expert said it was understandable politicians would be anxious and wary of the deadlines in the organic law on political parties not being met that might push the time frame of the major roadmap back, possibly resulting in a further delay of the next election currently expected in November next year.
However, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam sought to soothe politicians’ nervousness. He explained the organic law on political parties is blessed with a clause allowing for a concession to be made where deadlines imposed on key processes, including membership database reviews, could be extended, provided the EC agrees to it.
He added the extension would be of a “reasonable length” and “not stretch out” the major roadmap.
NCPO crack rumours grow
The plot has thickened with the resignation of Labour Minister Sirichai Distakul in the midst of conjecture about cracks within the National Council for Peace and Order.
However, what’s keeping most people’s eyes peeled is the inevitable — a cabinet reshuffle.
And a bigger attention grabber is whether the shake-up will be a limited or a major one. The scale appears to be tipped in favour of a new cabinet line-up with a paler shade of top-brass dominance.
If that is to be the case, the next question will be: Who among the generals holding cabinet posts will be shown the door?
Gen Sirichai doesn’t count, according to political sources. He left of his own free will though his sudden departure from the ministry — which followed hot on the heels of the removal of Varanon Peetiwan as director-general of the Employment Department — called into question his ability and responsiveness to the government’s priority agenda of tackling illegal migrant labour to stave off threats of potential trade sanctions from the US and the EU, the two prime export markets.
The vacant labour minister seat may have opened up an opportunity for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to play cabinet musical chairs, only this time many civilian new faces may be invited to enter the stage, according to observers.
Some analysts believe the next cabinet reshuffle could be the last before a general election, expected in November next year. That gives the NCPO all the more reason to position itself as the force people can trust so it will face less resistance should it decide to play a role in the next government, said the analysts.
Winning public trust should begin with the shedding of what critics have long reckoned is the “excessive presence” of generals in the cabinet in favour of more civilians. Critics argue that only defence portfolios and the deputy premier posts should continue to be occupied by soldiers out of respect for national security and “political correctness”.
However, in reality, power play and friendship have to be considered which might put Gen Prayut in a difficult position deciding who to keep and who should go, if it ever comes to that, said the political source.
At least two names will be the hardest to cross out. Gen Prayut will face what could well be his toughest choice in deciding cabinet posts if he has to remove Gen Chatchai Sarikulya as agriculture minister and Gen Anupong Paojinda as interior minister.
Gen Chatchai is one of Gen Prayut’s close friends but friendship does not mask the fact that many farmers are less than happy with Gen Chatichai farm policy direction which has done little to improve the persistently depressed prices of crops such as rubber.
Gen Anupong, on the other hand, is wellrespected by the premier as he is Gen Prayut’s ex-boss. Gen Prayut served under Gen Anupong when he was army chief. However, Gen Anupong’s ministerial performance has been mired in controversies, including a discovery that the ministry authorised a large firm affiliated to an energy drink giant to build a factory in a forest reserve.
Also, more recent incidents were reported of public uproar in Chon Buri and Nonthaburi against their respective governors accused of disgrace in arranging disorganised funeral flower laying ceremonies for the late King. Provincial governors report directly to the Interior Ministry.
People were also concerned about alleged questionable spending of the state budget on hosting the ceremonies in the two provinces.
Observers agree it will not be easy for the prime minister to cast fraternity aside for a future in politics that may be looming large on the horizon.