Cobra Gold 2018: No more cheap talk, just action
The Cobra Gold multilateral military exercise is a barometer of how strong the Thai-US security commitment is despite several hiccups in recent years. Thailand’s strategic role and value cannot be underestimated, especially at this pivotal juncture with the fluid security landscape of the region. After nearly a decade of inertia, the Thai and US administrations are gradually fine-tuning their wave-lengths and meeting mutual security needs.
The 37th edition of the exercise, the region’s largest military manoeuvres, will kick off on Feb 13 and last for 10 days. Unlike the three previous years since the May 2014 coup, the US Defence Department this time has taken control of the process, more or less bypassing the State Department.
Due to the uncertain domestic political situation in Thailand and the cold shoulder by the Obama administration, the exercises were heavily politicised by Washington bureaucrats as a way to reprimand Thailand over its handling of domestic matters.
For instance, the hullabaloo over the number of troops and types of arms used in the previous exercises were given a political spin to shame the co-host. The US was disappointed by the backsliding of Thai democracy and reports of human rights violations, which directly affected Thai-US security ties. Now the tide has turned.
Although the exercises continued without interruption in recent years, behind closed doors, the manoeuvring and rhetoric became so unfriendly that the Thai side was no longer as enthusiastic as before. Fortunately, a better atmosphere has prevailed in the past months since Donald Trump became president and direct communications were established between the Thai and US national security teams.
This year’s preparations have been smooth, with quick decisions and approval of an increase in American troops to 6,800 from 3,600 last year. It is reminiscent of years past when the two sides were closest allies with the number of troops involved in the exercise speaking volumes about their security ties and cooperation.
After Mr Trump took office last January, the security dimension of Thai-US relations has received renewed attention and both sides have realised that they have to look forward and reinvent their decrepit alliance. As Thai-US relations move toward full normalisation, the narrative and perception of Thailand tilting toward China, once popular inside the Beltway, has gradually been put onto the back-burner. All key US members have visited Thailand in the past year, breaking all the taboos scripted by the previous administration.
Obviously, the further delay by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha of the planned general election to next year has caused concern among US leaders and lawmakers and been subjected to mounting criticism by civil society organisations. But this time, Washington as well as the West is highly unlikely to use this hiccup as a reason to downgrade ties or delay bilateral cooperation.
As such, Cobra Gold 2018 will be remembered as one the biggest engagements since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with an estimated 12,000 plus troops from 30 countries. In earlier years, the main focus of the manoeuvres was tactical training and live-fire exercises. However, since 2015, more emphasis has been given to non-lethal activities and civic action programmes, such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
Given the importance of the “free and open” Indo-Pacific region to the Trump administration, maritime security cooperation will be highlighted. More than Washington would like to admit, the exercises will help American troops improve their capabilities in planning and conducting combined or joint operations. Most importantly, US troops can use this opportunity to network and build ties all over the region and promote interoperability, particularly with those countries using US arms.
This year’s exercises will include noncombat evacuation drills, and offensive and defensive techniques. Notably, the third-largest troop contingent will be from South Korea, which has dispatched a total of 439 soldiers, while Thailand will have 4,007 participants. Due to tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea wants to take advantage of the unique coastline of Hatyao in Sattahip to maximise its training in amphibious landings. At the same place, there will be a non-combatant evacuation from conflict zones.
The postponement of US-South Korean military exercises because of the Feb 8-25 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, and the desire to avoid provoking North Korea as requested by South Korean President Moon Jae-in, has given added strategic value to Cobra Gold, which is far from the volatile Korean Peninsula.
At the recent Vancouver ministerial meeting on the North Korean nuclear crisis, Thailand’s role in implementing UN-related and other sanctions was highlighted by the US and Canada. The US also discreetly asked Thailand to be prepared to send a battalion to Panmunjom in case of an armed conflict.
As a member of the UN Command, Thailand sent troops during the 1950-53 Korean War, and this military commitment continues because the conflicting parties never signed a peace treaty. At that time, Thailand provided one infantry battalion, three ships, and one transport flight with a total 6,326 troops to the UN-backed international force. A total of 1,139 Thai soldiers were wounded and 136 killed in action.
At the opening ceremony of Cobra Gold last year in Sattahip, US Pacific Command Commander Adm Harry B Harris declared that the US-Thai alliance is a big deal, reminding all of us that nations do not enter security treaty alliances lightly. “It means that we are in it together for the long haul. The US alliance with Thailand is a deep and enduring commitment.” As the Americans like to say, the proof is in the pudding. Thailand will have a full plate to try while the two countries commemorate their 200th year of friendship this year and beyond.
The Thai and US administrations are gradually fine-tuning their wave-lengths.