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Wissanu’s political ban remark may pave way for local elections PM goes to bizarre lengths to restore good fortune to his shaky govt Whether politicians will flock to the new party Suthep is thought to be setting up remains to be seen
Will local polls shape next govt?
T he cloud of uncertainty hanging over the local administrative organisation (LOA) elections could be slowly dissipating with Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam’s announcement this week that the political activities ban would be lifted by June.
But the more important question is whether the local polls will shape the next government after the general election, which is expected to be held next February.
After months of guessing and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) staying tightlipped on when the ban will be lifted, political observers enthusiastically received Mr Wissanu spelling out a rough timeline for local elections and adding that the political activities ban would be gone by June.
The lifting of the ban will precede the elections of provincial administrative organisations (PAO) and tambon administrative organisations (TAO).
Getting rid of the ban is the single most crucial precondition for organising the local polls. Without that, electioneering cannot proceed.
Now the legislative steps to holding the local elections are being followed. The relevant draft law is in the hands of the Election Commission (EC) and will soon be forwarded to the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) by way of the cabinet.
Mr Wissanu’s assurance that the ban will end should bring the local elections that much closer to reality. However, he has apparently reserved judgement on when the local polls will take place, merely say they will be held before the year is out.
The EC has been more precise with its predictions. Election Commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn said if and when the draft bill is passed by the NLA, the EC will need some time to prepare for the elections. It said the polls could be called in August, although there is no telling whether the PAO or TAO elections will come first.
Analysts reckon the timing of the local polls matters less than what they might indicate about the general election early next year.
Traditionally, local leaders have retained close affiliations with political parties that dominate national politics.
In some constituencies, local leaders are accused of being canvassers for political parties ahead of the general election as they are “influencers” wielding tremendous power of persuasion over voters. Quite a few leaders have run for MP seats and won.
However, the game has changed under the NCPO. The number of TAO members, many of whom are widely known local leaders, will be halved, reportedly a budget-cutting measure.
This could “dilute” the political influence that TAO members hold over voters as one TAO member will represent a wider constituency within its jurisdiction than in the past. Some areas may not be familiar turf, meaning they will be less able to wield influence, analysts say.
At present, each TAO features two representatives from each village within its jurisdiction. The amendments, if passed, would reduce this to one member per village.
Each TAO would also comprise no more than six members. The number of TAO members now stands at 100,000 but this would drop to 50,000, shaving up to 4.7 billion baht a year from the TAO’s fixed budget given the shrinking payroll.
If fewer members with links to large political parties enter the TAOs in the local polls, the parties could enjoy less support in campaigning for the next general election. This could make or break an MP candidates’ chance of winning a seat, analysts say.
Joss for boss to ward off evil
E ach prime minister has their own style. Some keep a hands-on approach while others prefer to let the decision-making process run its course. Whatever style they choose, it is believed to set the tone for the kind of workload their team can expect.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who spent decades as a professional soldier before becoming the army’s commander-in-chief, is known to operate within a protective environment as many of his staff are either active or retired military men.
According to political sources, the premier’s team has several tasks including giving advice and acting like gatekeepers who control the flow of information to their boss.
In certain situations they feel compelled to take action to boost the prime minister’s morale. A bizarre burning of incense sticks at Government House, for example, is said to be the work of Gen Prayut’s close aides.
The incense sticks were found last week in front of the Thai Khu Fah building which houses the premier’s office.
The mysterious presence of the items — 36, to be precise — drew attention from reporters and triggered a hunt for who was responsible for planting them there. Some suspected it was an attempt to put a curse on the regime.
But apparently burning the joss sticks was intended to ward off evil, or some of the problems the administration faces. Some observers linked it to a broken lotus basin during a minor car accident at Government House at Chinese New Year.
This was taken as a bad omen, especially as Gen Prayut reportedly bought the basin with his own money. Burning incense was seen as an attempt to restore good fortune.
Additionally, Chinese-style red lanterns have been hung up at the gates of Government House. While Gen Prayut reportedly ordered the lanterns to be installed himself, he might have acted on the advice of his team.
According to political observers, Gen Prayut’s team is known to be very protective of him. They often refrain from associating with political groups to avoid being seen as partisan. In their thinking, the coup-masters have been tasked with resolving political conflicts, and Gen Prayut should not be dragged into the fray.
“They’re unable to accept criticism. They insist what the prime minister has done is right and proper,” the source said.
The way they operate has raised concern among pundits, who insist Gen Prayut cannot afford to run the country the way he did when he led the army.
The inability by his staffers and close aides to hear or accept criticism or outside opinions means the prime minister may not be well-enough informed on a range of issues, they argue.
Many of these devoted aides turned a blind eye to the recent findings of an opinion poll indicating that young voters, especially students, want Gen Prayut removed from office, some of these political observers say.
The survey found that 70% of young respondents support pro-election rallies, which are gaining momentum as activists threaten to stage more until the general election takes place.
Gen Prayut earlier gave a November deadline for the general election but few now believe this possible given that other laws needed to facilitate it are still being scrutinised.
Yet the premier’s staff seem unfazed by such reports of growing opposition to the regime.
In fact, they typically ignore this kind of information completely and choose to look at different data that shows the regime is doing fine, according to the source.
As discontent among critics and opponents is growing, with the collection of luxury watches worn by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon being a target, political analysts say Gen Prayut needs to do more to combat graft.
The only question is, will the premier get that memo?
Democrats at risk of exodus
T here has been talk of former protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban planning to form a political party to back Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha returning as an outsider prime minister after the general election.
Mr Suthep’s favourable stance towards an outsider prime minister is completely different from that of the Democrat Party which has put up stiff resistance to the notion of a non-elected premier — a position shared by its main rival the Pheu Thai Party, which Mr Suthep, a former leader of the defunct People’s Democrat Reform Committee (PDRC), has strongly opposed.
Former Democrat MP Witthaya Kaewparadai, who was a former core leader of the PDRC, said that if the new party is to be set up, Mr Suthep is unlikely to accept the post of party leader or become a party executive considering that Mr Suthep has refused to accept any political office since the 2014 military coup.
However, Mr Witthaya did not confirm reports that certain former Democrat MPs would defect to Mr Suthep’s new party.
Mr Witthaya is the right-hand man of Mr Suthep, now chairman of the Muan Maha Prachachon for Reform Foundation — a reincarnation of the PDRC which spearheaded the anti-government demonstrations against the Yingluck Shinawatra administration in late 2013, culminating in the May 2014 coup that toppled the Pheu Thai Party-led government.
Mr Witthaya noted that speculation about Mr Suthep setting up a party had some Democrat members worried about possible defections and erosion of the party’s support base.
Some party members once took part in the PDRC’s demonstrations and remain loyal to Mr Suthep, who formerly served as the Democrat secretary-general.
A PDRC source said Mr Suthep has realised that if he establishes his own party, this will inevitably put a dent in the Democrats’ support base.
Mr Suthep appears intent on fighting former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s alleged influence over Pheu Thai by backing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to return as an outsider prime minister after the election to push for the implementation of reforms proposed by the PDRC.
If the Democrats make their stance against the “Thaksin regime’’ publicly clear, Mr Suthep may not go so far as to set up his own party, the source said.
That would give Mr Suthep confidence that Pheu Thai would be isolated after the election and would have virtually next to zero chance of forming a government on its own.
“But today, the Democrats are fighting against both the Thaksin regime, and the NCPO [National Council for Peace and Order],” the source said.
“If they focus only on Thaksin, the PDRC supporters would not be so confused like this.
“We believe there is nothing to worry about from the military.
“They will remain in power for no more than five years [from now].”
The source added that there would only be a small number of former Democrat MPs who would switch to join Mr Suthep’s new party.
Mr Suthep does not envisage a new party becoming a major one, the source said.
Mr Suthep only wants his new party to play a part in backing Gen Prayut to become an outsider prime minister, the source said.