CLASS DIVIDE
Why Thailand’s universities are emptying
Thailand has a huge demographic challenge. Its population is ageing quickly, and the number of college-aged students is predicted to decline sharply through 2040. The country has more university seats than it needs, but higher-learning institutions are under increasing pressure to maintain enrollments.
According to the World Bank, Thailand ranks as the world’s third most rapidly ageing population. The percentage of the Thai population that is 65 years or older has more than doubled over the past 20 years, from 5% in 1995 to 11% in 2017. Demographers also project that more than a quarter of the population will fall into this oldest age bracket by 2040.
Over the same period, the labour force in the country is expected to shrink by about 11%, from roughly 50 million today to more than 40 million by 2040.
These trends are primarily the result of a sharp decline in fertility rates, which fell from 6.2 births per woman in the early 1960s to 1.5 in 2016. Birth rates began trending downward in the late 1960s and have only begun to flatten out in the past 10 years or so. Partly this is a function of a growing economy and rising incomes. But it also the product of a very effective National Family Planning Programme that was introduced in 1970.
The changing mix of population now poses a number of challenges for the country, including the need to increase productivity within a labour force that is getting smaller every year, the need to care for a growing elderly population, and, in an education context, the need to match the capacity and capabilities of the education system to a shrinking pool of students.
UNIVERSITY CHALLENGE
Thai higher education expanded rapidly in the 1980s in order to keep pace with the then-growing demand within the country. There are 170 universities and colleges operating in Thailand today, which together offer around 4,100 academic programmes. Most of the expansion in the Thai system in recent decades has come through the establishment of private institutions — of which there are 71 nationwide — and, to a lesser extent, a restructuring of some public universities leading to the opening of new, independent campuses.
As the demographic balance in the country
continues to shift quickly, the number of students enrolled in Thai varsities has also peaked and begun to decline. The high point was in 2010 when just under 2.5 million students were enrolled in tertiary education. Total enrollment has trended downward in the years since and was a little more than 2 million last year.
Institutions are reducing capacity and struggling to control costs as a result, but the number of prospective students continues to decline.
Data from the Council of University Presidents of Thailand (CUPT) indicated that about 80,000 Thai students applied to sit the national university admissions exam in 2017, down from 100,000 the year before. There are just under 110,000 spaces available via the country’s central university admission system this year, which is also down sharply from the more than 150,000 seats offered just two years ago.
Those significant downward trends have led some observers to predict that some, perhaps many, Thai universities will have to scale back or even close their doors, and it is the private institutions that are especially vulnerable in this respect.
PRIVATE PROVIDERS COULD BE HIT FIRST
Education experts believe that privately owned universities would be the first group to be affected. The number of students applying for seats in private universities has dropped 50% in the past few years. The number is also expected to drop by another 50% in the next three to five years.
Last year, two private universities — Srisophon College in Nakhon Sri Thammarat and Asian University in Chonburi — decided to dissolve their businesses due to financial difficulties.
Many private universities have voiced a concern that they could meet the same fate if this trend continues.
Some private players have been lobbying the Education Ministry to ease regulations so that they can set up branches in neighbouring countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Saowanee Thairungroj, rector of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said that since public universities receive subsidies from the state, private universities — which currently account for 20% of national education provision — are at a disadvantage.
“If you do not have well-established funding sources for the education business, it is possible that you would have to be shut down or downsized,” Ms Saowanee told Prachachart Thurakit, a Thai-language newspaper, adding that already 120 staff have taken up the university’s early retirement programme brought in to reduce the budget spending.
The Association of Private Higher Education Institutions of Thailand (APHEIT) has recently asked for more support from government after two private universities has already been forced to shut down due to enrolment struggles, saying there might be more to come if no one reaches out to help.
APHEIT president Pornchai Mongkhonvanit said the declining birthrate is clearly behind this shortfall, adding the drop in demand is taking more of a toll on privately owned universities than on those that are state-run because private universities need to spend its own budget to maintain and improve quality.
“Out of 71 private universities in Thailand, only 10 are big enough to stand on their own feet. The rest are medium or small-sized schools that need more support to survive because the higher education market in Thailand is getting smaller each year,” he said.
Mr Pornchai said private universities, especially smaller ones, need to adjust their strategies in order to survive in the long run. They also need to cooperate more and close some outdated majors which are not in great demand.
“Private universities should focus on the quality of students rather than quantity and some universities may need to be merged to keep them survive. In the long run, many state universities such as Rajabhat and Rajamongkol aren’t in a much better position either,” he said.
MORE FOREIGN COMPETITORS
Arnond Sakworawich of the National Institute of Development Administration, has estimated that up to three quarters of Thai universities are in danger of downsizing and shutting down within 10 years due to low enrollment and increased competition from foreign rivals.
His prediction came after acknowledging the surprising news that the Thai government has opted to open the market to foreign competition as well.
In a bid to boost the quality and labour market relevance of higher education in the country, foreign institutions are now being invited to pursue branch campuses that will operate in Thailand.
CMKL University, a joint institute established by Carnegie Mellon University and King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology University Ladkrabang (KMITL), is expected to start operating in Thailand by August, while National Taiwan University has already applied to set up operations in Thailand as well.
The establishment of such satellite campuses is part of a broader government strategy called “Thailand 4.0”. It aims to boost productivity for the country’s shrinking labour force and, in so doing, to move to a more highly skilled, valueadded and technology-oriented economy.
But the arrival of foreign universities is also certain to increase the competition in Thailand’s domestic education market, and to further pressure any institutions that are already struggling to balance their budgets in the face of significant downward pressure on domestic enrolments.
“When the market is shrinking and you try to add more players, the consequence is surely a higher competition. The worst case scenario for me is that three quarters of Thai universities may be forced to shut down over the next decade because they will not be able to compete with well-known and foreign universities,” Mr Arnond said.
According to Education Minister Teerakiat Jareonsettasin, many more leading universities in the US, UK and Japan have shown interest in establishing campuses in Thailand.
TURNING CRISIS INTO OPPORTUNITY
In contrast with Mr Arnond, CUPT president Suchatvee Suwansawat said Thai universities should not afraid of more competition from foreign peers, instead they should grab this opportunity to upgrade themselves by partnering with world leading universities.
“In my opinion, the policy allowing foreign universities to open satellite branches in Thailand would not affect local universities as the foreign universities would offer courses where Thai universities do not have expertise. Having international universities in the country will, on the other hand, push Thai universities to improve their quality of education and research,” he said.
Mr Suchatvee said the only way Thai universities could survive the crisis is to adjust their strategies to match with the changing landscape. He suggested Thai universities to consider downsizing themselves, or even closing, some outdated majors which are not in great demand.
Several Thai universities have considered reducing social science places which are currently declining in popularity compared to a rise in interest in the sciences. Among the courses that could be closed or downsized are previously popular majors in law, journalism and mass communications.
The CUPT president said world-renowned universities usually have 25,000 students on average, but top Thai universities now have at least 30,000-40,000 students.
Mr Suchatvee also advised Thai universities to operate more international programmes as the number of students enrolled in international programmes is expected to increase sharply over the next decade.
“Demand for international programmes is high in Thailand because students are paying more attention to improving their capacity to communicate in English, which is considered a weak point for most Thai workers,” he said.
Mr Suchatvee, who is also a rector at KMITL, said he has seen the number of students attending international programmes there increase steadily over the past few years. The figure is also expected to continue to rise.
“Thai universities have faced declining enrollment in Thai-language programmes, but when it comes to English-language programmes I think there is still room to grow. And if we can partner with world leading universities, we will be able to attract students from neighbouring countries as well,” he said.
Mr Suchatvee also suggested public universities set up their own business entities to co-invest with private companies, converting patents and research projects invented by its academics into commercial products or services, to generate more income for the varsities.
“Universities cannot rely on annual budget from the government; they will need to earn more money by themselves,” he said.
COOPERATION AMONG LOCAL PLAYERS
Apart from boosting partnerships between Thai and foreign universities. Mr Suchatvee also
International universities in this country will push Thai universities to improve their quality of education and research.
SUCHATVEE SUWANSAWAT
urged local varsities to increase collaboration among each other, such as by providing doubledegree programmes.
A couple of weeks ago, Chulalongkorn University (CU) and KMITL signed a memorandum of understanding to provide a double bachelor’s degree in artificial intelligence and robotics engineering — the first such course in the country.
According to the agreement, engineering faculties at both universities will share resources and personnel in a programme. Students will be awarded two degrees, from both CU and KMITL, when they graduate after spending a combined four years studying at both campuses.
CU’s rector, Bundit Euaarporn, said the cooperation agreement is a win-win situation for both universities as they can share expertise and halve their operational expenses at the same time.
“Moreover, it’s also a win for the government and the country because artificial intelligence and robotics engineering are fields crucial to the Thailand 4.0 vision,” he said.
The MoU is the first collaboration between local universities, which usually pair up with foreign institutions. “We have traditionally viewed each other as competitors. I think now it’s time that we change our mindset and cooperate more,” Mr Bundit said.
Mr Bundit said he wanted to see other Thai universities to follow CU and KMITL as this model could help strengthen the whole academic circle in Thailand.
TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION
Deputy Education Minister Udom Kachinthorn said the declining number of college-aged students is not the only threat that Thailand’s higher education sector have to face, but also technological disruption.
“IT companies like Google and Microsoft now offer online courses on their own. Their courses are cheaper and easier to access. Students do not have to sit in classes for four years to study many unrelated programmes to get a degree, they just attend in short-term courses to acquire some certain skills required by employers. This is a signal to me that the world of education is going to change forever,” he said.
According to his interview with veteran journalist Suthichai Yoon on a Facebook Live chat recently, the deputy minister — a former president of the prestigious Mahidol University — is now embarking on a very ambitious project designed to produce “a new breed of university students”.
This new breed will pursue inter-disciplinary courses to fit their career paths in the digital world, or will learn new skills for mid-life professional shifts into the new “4.0” ecosystem.
“Thailand is fast becoming an ageing society. Universities must adapt their activities to suit the new landscape, which includes opening up courses for people in their 60s and 70s who want to pursue new knowledge, skills and experiences,” Mr Udom said.
Moreover, students must be able to take courses across different faculties, and even universities, to enable them to become versatile in more than one discipline. “For example,” he explained, “an engineering student at Chula should be able to take a management course at the same time at Thammasat, and vice versa.”
In fact, many new courses incorporating new fields and practical experience will offer certificates for two-year study periods.
“Who needs a university degree these days when what matters to an employer is what the applicants can do, and not where they went to school,” he said.
Under Mr Udom’s plan, the current MOOCs (Massive Online Open Courses) being offered separately — and haphazardly — by a few universities will be streamlined into one system so that every Thai has access to lessons given by the country’s best lecturers without even having to apply for a seat at university.
“Education will not be the same again,” the deputy minister believed. And neither will the way people “get educated” be recognisable in a few years’ time.