Two Koreas saga: Keep your fingers crossed
When the two leaders from Korea meet in Panmunjom later next month, new histories of East Asia will be narrated and written. North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un will travel from Pyongyang to the demilitarised zone at Panmunjom. His car will pass the Panmon Gak on the northern side and proceed to cross the DMZ line to the Peace House (Pyeonghwa jib) a few metres away southward. With South Korean President Moon Jae-in waiting there, he will greet his younger counterpart once he arrives with a big smile. Before the two shake hands, Mr Kim will by then have already made history as the first North Korean leader to step foot on South Korea since the war ended in 1953.
With Mr Kim inside South Korea, both leaders can begin discussing ways and means to coexist peacefully. They have to make sure that the first meeting is an entry point to a lasting peace in the Korean Peninsula. They could discuss strengthening cooperation and increasing the chances of a reunion of families divided during the war, among others. Contentious issues related to the status of an armistice agreement, denuclearisation, reunification and a possible peace treaty would be taken up in the future. Thanks to Mr Moon’s appeasement policy towards North Korea, diplomacy has finally triumphed over the possible use of force.
Obviously, what they discuss and agree upon in the so-called “Korea First” agenda will pave the way for the historic meeting between Mr Kim and President Donald Trump in May or with other world leaders after that. At the moment, officials from the US and North Korea are in Sweden preparing for the meeting, working out a time and venue. Mr Moon and Mr Kim will almost certainly put a positive spin on things to ensure the Trump-Kim summit comes about.
In retrospect, judging from Washington’s diplomacy towards North Korea, it was wise for Asean not to give in completely to US pressure over the past eight months. From the beginning, Asean opted for diplomacy and sustained dialogue with Pyongyang. Asean refused to isolate the beleaguered nation within the Asean-led mechanism, especially at the Asean Regional Forum, which it joined in 2000. The grouping also supports the stalled six-party talks as a tool to negotiation for the denuclearisation of North Korea.
In Sydney, leaders from Australia and Asean issued a joint statement calling for “the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula
in a peaceful manner as well as initiatives toward establishing peace in the Korean Peninsula”.
During the past months, former US Special Representative for North Korea, Joseph Yun made a series of diplomatic calls to East Asia, Asean in particular, to convince its leaders to isolate North Korea. During his visit to Bangkok in December, he impressed on Thailand the need to end all trade transactions with Pyongyang and vigorously implement all relevant resolutions imposed by the UN. Bangkok resisted Washington’s urges to scale down North Korean diplomatic representation over here, arguing that continued dialogue with Pyongyang remains imperative.
Thailand was quick to welcome the positive developments on the Korean Peninsula. “We trust that these developments will contribute significantly towards denuclearisation and lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” according to a press release from the Foreign Ministry last week. Bangkok also urged the international community
to back the current diplomatic efforts.
At the Vancouver Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on Security and Stability on Korean Peninsula, held in mid-January, the leaders from 20 countries agreed that all future dialogue must be backed up with strong military options. At the meeting, Washington also reiterated “the four nos” related to North Korea — the US has no intention of changing the current system; does not support regime change; is in no rush for reunification and will not dispatch of troops across the DMZ.
Although the meeting highlighted the joint desire of Washington, Seoul and Tokyo to tighten the screw over Pyongyang, the latest development has somehow left Tokyo out in the cold. At the Vancouver meeting, they called for maximum pressure to persuade North Korea to come to the negotiating table. However, Japan strongly believed that there must be some prerequisite before any talks can start, especially concrete plans for denuclearisation. The participants also opposed China’s so-called “freeze for freeze” plan. It calls for
Pyongyang to freeze its nuclear missile tests in exchange for the suspension of US-South Korea joint military exercises.
Now, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might have to adjust his position following Mr Trump’s acceptance of Mr Kim’s invitation to a summit. Mr Abe might ponder as well whether to hold a meeting with Mr Kim separately later on. Tokyo has been pushing for the return of abducted Japanese during 1977-1983 and stringent sanctions again North Korea. It is still too early to say whether Abe-Kim can be realised as it would very much depend on the combined outcomes of the Moon-Kim and Trump-Kim meetings.
China and Russia, also welcomed the prospect of a Trump-Kim summit saying they are moving in the right direction to solve the nuclear issues on the Korean Peninsula. From Beijing’s vintage point, the new atmosphere has eased international pressure that places the country front and centre of the Korean Peninsula. At this juncture, Mr Moon and Mr Kim have demonstrated that they have their national interests at heart,
responding to their shared destiny.
As part of the dramatic diplomatic shifts, supporters of appeasement policy are moving to the second stage of the so-called 4D’s roadmap. After securing dialogue, a de-escalation of tensions in the Korean Peninsula will follow . It is hoped that the Moon-Kim summit will lead to “deconfliction”. Finally, if things go well and North Korea’s pledges come through then the Trump-Kim summit will materialise. Then and only then can denuclearisation follow.
In short, North Korea understands well the upcoming two and half months are “do or die” for the hermit kingdom to break out of its current international isolation and economic punishment. It is the only “exit strategy” available. For now, the summit’s preparations will overshadow worries of nuclear horror for all concerned policymakers. That is a success, even if it is a blink considering the Korean people’s 65-years of suffering.