Voters torn between old and new
How do we read this? A majority of people want new political parties to form a government after the next general election but the incumbent Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha remains the most popular choice to be prime minister, according to a latest opinion survey by the National Institute of Development Administration or Nida Poll.
The result seems conflicted. On the one hand, it suggests that respondents would rather see a shift from an existing course of development and try on some new ideas. On the other, however, they still want to maintain a bit of the status quo, as in keeping Gen Prayut in the leadership role.
To interpret further, the poll result could indicate that the respondents are not content with the military regime’s policies and agenda, which by all means are ultraconservative with mediocre growth and low income distribution in exchange for political stability.
These people seem to think that when it comes to national administration and public policies, the country could afford to be more progressive and open to more out-of-the-box initiatives.
Still, the fact that these poll respondents linger on PM Gen Prayut as the preferred person to lead the country after the election clearly shows that peace and steadiness remain high on their minds.
Despite his vacillating on the election date and lacklustre performance on the country’s reform and reconciliation, the PM is still widely seen as a trusted figure, someone who can keep fractious politics and foxy politicians at bay.
Whether it is true or not, Gen Prayut is seen by these poll respondents — and possibly a majority of the population considering previous surveys and the constitution referendum result — as representing control and continuity.
The attributes may come at a cost, by they suppression of human rights or inefficiency that stems from centralised control and bureaucracy, but they are valued by members of the public as suggested by the latest survey.
Details of the poll may give an insight into a post-conflict Thai society gearing up for yet another election that could mark its direction over the next few years.
The survey was conducted last week from on 1,250 people aged 18 and over of various educational backgrounds and occupations from around the country.
On the question what kind of political parties the respondents think should form a government, more than 62% said they would prefer new parties to the old ones. The reason is they want new people, with new policies and new lines of thinking to take the helm.
Only 37% of respondents would rather hang on to the existing parties because they have the required experience, knowledge and capability to solve the country’s problems.
When it comes to the choice of prime minister, Gen Prayut also led the field by a wide margin, winning an approval of more than 38% of the respondents.
The next preferred choice, Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan of the Pheu Thai Party only gained 13% of the vote while Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was close behind with 12%. The latest “young blood” candidate Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit of the Future Forward Party had 6.8%.
It’s clear that the poll is not the vote and its result is only suggestive of a desire by a segment of the population, which is unlikely to come true at the ballot box.
Poll respondents can indicate an ideal scenario of what they would like to see. They can pick and choose between people and policy agendas. An election or, by extension, the body politics is a different story. The candidates, policies and political agendas are usually rolled into one. Gen Prayut, for example, comes as a package. He has come to power on an ultra-conservative agenda with a likeminded support base. It’s unlikely he will switch sides if he is to return to power.
It could even be said that the only reason Gen Prayut wants to become the next PM is to maintain the policy agenda that his government has put into place.
That said, it does not mean the yearning of certain members of the public as indicated by the Nida poll should be dismissed. It might appear ideal and unrealistic but there is truth in it. After four years in power, the regime should realise that its narrow-minded conservatism will not carry the country forward.
A politics of fear, which has been trumped up again following the entry of the Future Forward Party and its socially progressive agenda, is not a healthy sign for the country going into a general election. As the Nida poll suggested, a segment of the population does value progress. It’s time for the regime to open up to new ideas.