ABOUT Politics
Stormy seas ahead for NCPO as parties prepare to set sail Seasoned politician Sanoh, in his dreams, predicts a return to Thaksinism Democrat leader not taking prisoners with his no outsider premier stance
Political scene gets colourful
T he“political market” has reopened as parties are waking up from an almost fouryear hiatus following the May 2014 coup, said Suriyasai Katasila, political commentator and deputy dean of Rangsit University’s Social Innovation College.
Mr Suriyasai, a well-known talking head in the political arena, said the review of parties’ membership databases is under way, marking the first legally permitted activity they have been able to engage in for a long while.
The Pheu Thai Party in particular is once again bustling with members waiting in line to reconfirm their membership, adding colour to the political scene, Mr Suriyasai noted.
What will cement the road map to the February general election is the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) lifting its ban on political activities, he said, although that could still trigger unrest.
Experts have argued that even when an election date is set in stone and political activities are resumed, spanners could still be thrown in the works.
The NCPO will be watching what parties do to secure their political bastions ahead of the poll, and any misstep could land them in trouble with the council.
At the same time, any punitive action the NCPO orders against political parties for causing “mischief” could provoke retaliation from their supporters. This could be in the form of street protests or other forms of civil disobedience that could further delay the election.
The NCPO has consistently warned that any collective action which undermines peace and security will be met with swift measures.
However, some political activist movements, including the Democracy Restoration Group, might want to test the water in a bid to up their game against the junta, which is nearing the end of its iron grip on power.
Street activism could heap tremendous pressure on the government, while on the political front, the parties are reconsolidating their power bases.
The Democrats were the first major party to draw up a checklist of their politicians in the South. After all, the party has always raked in the bulk of its MP seats from the South, so whoever has chosen to remain with the country’s oldest party in the run-up to the next poll could be vital to its survival, according to political observers.
The membership validation process is being performed just as parties and the factions within them have sent out invitations to their former MPs and prominent politicians to attend a coffee morning or soiree.
These gatherings are meant as a “roll call” check. In fact, Pheu Thai has thrown a preSongkran rod nam dam hua (seeking a blessing from seniors) ceremony in which hordes of party stalwarts are expected to turn up. Songkran, the Thai New Year, runs from April 12-16 this year.
Pheu Thai secretary-general Phumtham Wechayachai sees such ceremonies as a litmus test of the party’s strength, as gauged by the turnout.
Experts feel that a strong Pheu Thai could be unnerving for the NCPO, despite some of the party’s key politicians, or allies in the red-shirt camp, having been prosecuted. That renders them ineligible for the upcoming poll.
Several heads of factions have vowed to renew their pledges of allegiance to Pheu Thai. One of the first to declare his pledge was Sanoh Thienthong, a patriarch of the socalled Wang Nam Yen faction and a former interior minister.
At the same time, the Bhumjaithai Party celebrated its anniversary this week, with many of its former politicians in attendance.
However, questions were buzzing around as to whether two of its most prominent groups — one controlled by Suchart Tancharoen, the other by Siriwat Kachornprasart, son of the late party member Sanan Kachornprasart — have had a change of heart and defected.
Both reportedly said they were staying put. Now that most of the same faces are reclaiming their places in politics, the tranquil seas presided over by the NCPO may be soon be whipped up, pundits say.
Ex-PM to ‘make a comeback’
S anoh Thienthong is a self-proclaimed kingmaker who recently dreamed, literally, that Thaksin Shinawatra, the former premier who he had helped put in the top seat of government years ago would return from exile in the not-too-distant future.
At 85, the seasoned politician said he trusted his premonition that Thaksin would soon head back to Thailand after he his selfimposed exile to escape the Supreme Court’s 2008 judgement in the Ratchadaphisek land case in which he was sentenced to two years in jail for helping his former wife, Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra, purchase prime real estate at a deflated price.
Mr Sanoh’s prediction of Thaksin’s return in due course apparently illustrates his belief that the next poll will be won by the Pheu Thai Party, the predecessor of which he had cofounded. The Thai Rak Thai Party, which was led by Thaksin, counted Mr Sanoh among its founders before it was dissolved on account of electoral fraud and became the People’s Power Party, which was disbanded also over electoral irregularities. People’s Power was reincarnated into the Pheu Thai Party.
According to political analysts, Mr Sanoh may command some respect from the older ranks of politicians. However, the political landscape may be changing radically if more first-time young voters find relevance in the election and turn out in droves to cast their ballots in the next poll expected by February next year.
And Mr Sanoh would be in for a huge surprise if the young voters were to make inroads into the election and demand a change to the status quo by adopting the “none-of-theabove” attitude and electing a new party they thought would be a more worthy gamble than existing ones.
The young voters are locked on the radar of the group headed by billionaire businessman Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, which is now seeking registration as a political party under the name of Anakhot Mai, or Future Forward Party, with the Election Commission.
Several pundits insisted Future Forward cannot be written off as an ad hoc party. If enough young voters, who traditionally skip elections thinking they can find nothing to relate to in politics, found common ground with Future Forward and could connect with Mr Thanathorn, himself barely 40, the new party stands to collect many seats and establish itself as a force to be reckoned with in parliament after the election.
The pundits explained the constitution has installed a new electorate calculation method where small, and even brand new parties, enjoy a better chance than before to win seats. The practice — of combining a party’s loser votes in various constituencies together to trade for that party’s MP slots on the party list — can make a remarkable difference to emerging parties, including Future Forward, which champions a clear election policy concept and is decidedly positioned to cater to young voters.
A political source said even though Future Forward is likely to be more inclined, if left with a choice, to side with the Pheu Thai Party over the Democrat Party in forming a government together, nothing could guarantee that Future Forward would get along with Pheu Thai.
The main stumbling block is that many more senior members of Pheu Thai would have stepped up to the plate and run the party in light of the seemingly fading influence of the Shinawatra family. Sibling former premiers, Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra, both living in exile, have said they have nothing to do with the party and only on Wednesday Yaowapa Wongsawat, Thaksin’s younger sister, also announced through her husband, Somchai Wongsawat, that she was not validating her Pheu Thai membership and was planning to turn her back on politics.
But critics said the stepping back of the Shinawatras from Pheu Thai was probably a tactical move by the family to dress up the party’s image as being open to all, not the property of one particular clan.
However, a more assertive role of the older generation of stalwarts in running Pheu Thai might not go down well with Future Forward and that could leave Mr Sanoh with less room to make his presence felt in the former ruling party.
Abhisit’s fighting words
D emocrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva’s “aggressive” tone on the topic of an “outsider” prime minister did not come as music to the ears of coup supporters even though his recent remarks were apparently intended as a message to party members.
“People who are contemplating supporting Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha [to return as prime minister elected by a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate] have a variety of party choices, such as Khun Paiboon’s party [Prachachon Patiroob]. They need not come here,” he said.
“If they are with the party, they must support the party and its [choice of prime ministerial candidate], no matter who he is,” Mr Abhisit was quoted as saying early this month when the Democrat Party kicked off the process to begin party membership confirmations.
Former senator Paiboon Nititawan has applied to register the Prachachon Patiroob (Reform People Party] and is expected to hold a meeting of party founders today to select the leader and its executives.
The party’s policy and chief selling point right now is that it will help Gen Prayut stage a political comeback by nominating him for the role.
Among those who have found Mr Abhisit’s remark to be offensive is the prime minister himself.
“Be careful what you say. People will make up their own mind about whether they will support me or not. They should wait and see what happens, and whether they change their position,” Gen Prayut was quoted as saying.
According to pundits, his reaction indicates that he is more comfortable and confident about discussing his future now than he was before.
The prime minister has found himself the target of the newly launched Future Forward Party, led by wealthy business clan scion Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, who have made “not supporting an outside prime minister” one of their party’s top selling points.
However, observers believe Mr Abhisit’s stance on the issue is a warning to those members who took part in street demonstrations under the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).
Those politicians, who reportedly returned to the party ahead of the much-anticipated poll next February, have close connections with former Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban.
He resigned to lead the mass protests, which resulted in the coup that catapulted former army commander Prayut into power.
Mr Suthep, who now chairs the Muan Maha Prachachon Foundation, has publicly endorsed any potential bid by Gen Prayut to return as prime minister.
But it is feared that those who returned to the party share Mr Suthep’s faith in Gen Prayut, which threatens to further divide the party.
According to political sources, Mr Abhisit and Mr Suthep remain on good terms even though they have been perceived as foes and have different opinions. Mr Suthep is expected to push for the Democrat Party to be part of a coalition that supports Gen Prayut as future premier.
Mr Abhisit is said to be aware that his stance on the issue has frustrated some party supporters who supported the coup and still have faith in the regime. But as the leader of the Democrat Party, and a believer in democracy, Mr Abhisit can’t afford to stay quiet.
The party has been trying to boost its public image for years but the effort appears to be stalling, observers say.
In the upcoming elections, the Democrats will likely find it harder to woo voters. One newcomer, Parit Wacharasindhu, the 25-yearold nephew of Mr Abhisit, holds much promise but at this stage he can’t really be considered a serious contender.
Some observers expect Mr Abhisit to get even tougher as he may have to confront and challenge pro-military supporters.