A summit to prevent war
It is taking feverish preparations to bring about the June 12 Singapore summit between the two most extroverted world political leaders. Presumably, US President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un are back on schedule for their meeting. It is necessary to say “presumably” because this summit has gone from impossibility to certainty, then from unlikely to cancelled, and now “back on schedule”. Two weeks out, the summit offers some promise of being the most important such meeting of our age.
That is partly because the Trump-Kim meeting, by its very nature, is occurring amid low expectations. But this will be a game-changing summit even if it results in just a handshake and a few minor agreements. Any meeting at all is far more than simply a chance for Mr Trump and Mr Kim to once again preen their egos on the world stage. These two men and their countries hold the key, not just to peace in East Asia, but to preventing the world’s first nuclear war.
Both men are world-class trash-talkers, and over the top by all standards of traditional international diplomacy. The low point of their exchange was probably last September. Mr Trump tweeted and then spoke to the United Nations about “little rocket man”. To which Mr Kim replied in a highly unusual personal message that, “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire.” Mr Kim’s advantage, for using the 14th century word for a person in his dotage or, also, “imbecile”.
With both men now desperately seeking a summit, the pointed, personal insults have cooled. The gamesmanship, however, has not. In the lead-up to Singapore, Mr Trump used the housewife’s bargaining tool, and walked away from the negotiations. Then he allowed himself to renew planning, just as walking away was designed to do. A US commentator noted that Mr Trump is a one-man “good cop/bad cop”, taking both the threatening and placating roles that police infamously assign to two different interrogators to try to convince suspects to give them what they want.
Mr Trump has insisted, and Mr Kim has now agreed that the issue at the top of their agenda is North Korean “denuclearisation”. This is the fancy word for what used to be called nuclear disarmament. Mr Kim has announced the conclusion of his development of nuclear weapons. Last week he attended the decommissioning of the underground bomb-testing facility. He has promised an end to ballistic missile tests. This shows North Korea’s belief it has enough stockpiles to attack or counter-attack in case of war.
The US, South Korea, Japan and China all desire a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, North and South. Mr Trump sees his main task at the Singapore summit as convincing Mr Kim to get rid of the weapons North Korea has sacrificed to get. It is obvious to everyone that Mr Kim doesn’t trust the US or his neighbours. He will not disarm without major concessions from Mr Trump. This is the crux of agenda item No.1 at the summit. The US and allies want CVID — Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Denuclearisation. Mr Kim wants his regime’s survival. Both he and Mr Trump believe there are ways for a happy outcome that provides both. The world hopes they are right.
Yet, even if the Trump-Kim summit fails to reach such an agreement, it is not a wasted moment. Simply by agreeing to meet in the first place, the unlikely pair made nuclear war in Northeast Asia unlikely. By actually meeting, they make such a conflict impossible in the near term. Every other agreement, even small ones such as trade or personal and cultural exchanges make the world better.
Messrs Trump and Kim are the two most peculiar world leaders, unique and flamboyant in style. So-called experts and traditional diplomatic methods have failed to achieve peace with North Korea for 67 years. This strange pair could change that.