Heading into the unknown
The Constitutional Court’s recent decisions on two election-related bills are widely seen as key judicial rulings that will see the country move towards the general election.
With the court stamp of approval, the organic laws governing the elections of MPs and the selection of senators are now clear for submission for royal endorsement. The countdown toward the February polls should start when the MP election law is published in the Royal Gazette.
The court rulings are likely to be used to justify calls for the National Council for Peace and Order to lift the ban on political activities and allow political parties to get back in action. But things are never straightforward with the election roadmap; doubt and scepticism seem to be standard reactions when the polls have been repeatedly pushed back these years.
Legal specialist Jade Donavanik, also an adviser to the Constitution Drafting Committee, is among those who feel the uncertainty has lingered on and doubts the election roadmap will proceed smoothly despite the court rulings.
This is largely because NCPO chief and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha often said that “if there is nothing [wrong], or unless it is necessary, who wants to delay the election?”
According to the academic, he is not so sure if the poll will be held as expected given the frequency of Gen Prayut’s remarks about the unknown factor.
Suriyasai Katasila, deputy dean of Rangsit University’s Social Innovation College, has assessed the political situation and noticed something amiss.
Some political parties are not so keen on making election preparations as they are supposed to be, he points out. And he sees this as a sign of politicians feeling doubtful that elections will take place as expected.
“Several political parties aren’t so sure about the election roadmap. We see activities from newly registered ones only while several existing parties look not so certain. This could cast a shadow on the political scene ... and make politics hard to predict,” he wrote on his Facebook account.
Worse still, such political uncertainty is threatening to throw the reformist agenda into a state of disarray or prevent the reform campaign from gathering steam, according to Mr Suriyasai.
His assessment is based on a lack of evidence from the NCPO that they really do care about making the February election happen. The political activities ban remains firmly in place.
Moreover, he said the public is starting to see more controversial or “unexpected” political issues lately, but failed to elaborate. These elements can have a bearing on the election roadmap.
According to Mr Suriyasai, the February election is not a done deal. There is no real “public commitment” from the regime as to when the polls will take place; all is just speculation and expectation.
Some political observers agree on this. In his latest response to pro-election activists who demand that the vote proceed in November, the prime minister can only say for sure that the polls will not take place before February next year and nothing more.
Mr Suriyasai believes it is time for those in power to start sending signals to the public they are on their way out and the country is en route to an election.
On Tuesday the Constitutional Court is expected to rule on another legal dispute involving the regime’s amendment of the organic law on political parties to make the membership confirmation process necessary.
Most political pundits do not see it as a hurdle of any significance to the roadmap. They think the court’s view on this issue, either for or against, will not affect the elections.
But to some observers, the experience of reneged promises to hold elections in the past four years might come as a lesson that even if the court rules in favour of the regime’s amendment, many questions remain in relation to the election roadmap.