Bloomberg urges more consumer EV incentives
The government needs to add more consumer incentives to generate a population for electric vehicles (EVs) locally, says Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
Ashish Sethia, head of research in AsiaPacific for BNEF, said the Thai government is keen on EV adoption, but its policy remains focused on attracting automakers to produce here.
There are less incentives here than our Asean competitors, even though European strategies have shown how to increase the EV population, said Mr Sethia.
“We see a lot of incentives for EV adoption in Southeast Asia. For example, Singapore offers a tax exemption for EVs, while internal combustion engine [ICE] cars are subject to higher taxes and oil prices,” he said.
“Furthermore, the incentives for EV buyers should cover non-financial privileges, such as driving in bus lanes, parking lots with discounted fees and offering homeowners installation of an EV charging outlet at home.”
Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transport, said BNEF believes the Thai government has a promising policy to improve the country’s automotive industry, which ranked 12th globally last year.
“Designing an EV policy for Thailand may be more unique than any other country because the government has to focus on both the domestic market and export outlook,” he said.
“Automakers in the country have to monitor closely car demand from both local and overseas markets, such as Australia and Southeast Asia, to determine future sales in each market. It is interesting that Thailand wants to maintain its car manufacturing leadership in the region for both ICE and EV vehicles.”
Mr McKerracher said BNEF believes Thailand’s automotive industry will move towards EVs in the long run.
He would not reveal BNEF’s estimation of Thailand’s EV market size, saying the organisation will study the matter more before releasing a paper next year.
“It is hard to say whether the government’s goal of adding 1.2 million EVs on the roads by 2036 is realistic,” said Mr McKerracher.
The challenge for the current policy is whether it leads to large-scale deployment in the future, which depends on the local market and Thai economy, he said.
BNEF forecasts EV production activities here will eventually eclipse electric scooters, motorcycles, tuk-tuks and e-buses.
For the global outlook, passenger EV sales are projected to reach 1.57 million units in 2018, up from 1.09 million in 2017.
Of the 2018 EV volume, 1.083 million cars sold are estimated to be battery EVs, while the remaining sales would be plug-in hybrid EVs.
China is projected to make up the majority share of EV sales in 2018, with 754,000 units sold. Europe comes second with 376,000 EVs, while North America is pegged for 350,000 units.
BNEF forecasts the lithium-ion battery pack for EVs will be cheaper because the price per kilowatt-hour declined almost 80% from US$1,000 in 2010 to $209 in 2017.
Mr McKerracher said EVs should reach up-front cost parity with ICEs from 2024 because of tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing.