Does B3tn budget add up to political gain?
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha’s outrage over the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) members who were spotted dozing off during the 2019 budget deliberations last Thursday seems like an overreaction.
The prime minister threatened he would blacklist those who fell asleep and told NLA president Pornpetch Witchitcholchai to make sure there are no reoccurrences of snoozing during meetings. He also lashed out the media for their editorial decision to splash the shameful photos across their front pages.
In fact, there was no need for the prime minister to be so annoyed if even half of the NLA had slept through the proceedings. The new budget bill, accounting for a record three trillion baht, would still have sailed through.
Thursday’s vote attested to this as 197 out of 200 lawmakers voted in favour of the bill, with three abstentions. There was not a single “no”.
But I believe the media paid due attention to the deliberations. This was why they seized on the images of the lawmakers during their work.
So, why is this bill so important? First of all, it is the first time that Thailand’s annual budget has reached three trillion baht. Under the budget for 2019 fiscal year, revenue is projected at 2.55 trillion baht with a deficit of 450 billion baht funded by loans. Thailand’s budgets have been in deficit for more than a decade.
The 2019 budget bill is also the second consecutive year that the military government has cut the education budget while continuing to increase the amounts set aside for defence and security.
The Education Ministry’s budget has been reduced by 21 billion baht, or 4%, this year to 489.8 billion baht. This means the education budget in 2019 is lower than it was in 2015 when it was 498 billion baht. In 2018, the education budget shrank by three billion baht from the 2017 budget.
For decades, Thailand’s education budget increased annually before it was cut for the first time in 2018.
Thailand’s spending on education is among the highest in the world as a proportion of the national budget. Although the value of this spending has been ambiguous, the government should elaborate on its reasoning for the cut given the substantial increases for defence and security.
In its first reading of the budget bill, the NLA gave the green light to a 20% increase in the national security budget for the 2019 fiscal year. Some 274 billion baht was spent on national security last year, and this will rise to 329.1 billion baht in 2019.
The budget for the Interior Ministry increases by 17.5 billion baht, or 5%, to 373.5 billion from 2018.
And the Defence Ministry will enjoy an increase of five billion baht, or 2.3%, to 227.7 billion baht.
Meanwhile, the budgets for competitiveness building and human resource development, which are part of the education cluster, have been reduced by 14.7% and 2.6% respectively.
The above-mentioned budget decisions do not reflect the government’s policy direction. Previously, the Prayut government said it aspired to accelerate Thailand’s transition into the 4.0 world of technology and new media, yet it is reducing the budget promoting competitiveness, human resource development and education while substantially increase the budget for defence and security.
Yes, some may argue that the huge amount of budget allocated to education is not well-spent. But neither is the defence budget.
There are many cases that show problems with the armed forces’ and security agencies’ weapons procurement.
Another interesting point about the 2019 budget bill is that it will be effective from October, shortly ahead of a general election expected in February next year or a few months later. So, it shouldn’t go unremarked upon that the budget specifically earmarks 40 billion baht for the Prayut-initiated Pracharat welfare fund to be shared among the grassroots.
This fund will facilitate a round of cash injections into the pockets of low-income earners in the 2019 fiscal year.
I try to be optimistic. There may be good intentions behind the regime’s decision to allocate the budget in this way. But I cannot help but be suspicious of the political gains it will reap from the bill.
Under the budget time frame, the new round of money injected into the poorest, but most politically valuable, areas is expected to coincide with the final election campaign period next year.
And all of this is why it’s so vital that the media shine a light on the slumbering lawmakers who have so willingly waved this budget through.
‘‘ This fund will facilitate a round of cash injections into the pockets of low-income earners.